Syria: a civil war (closed)

[jmm99]

Since someone asked.

From Whither the Atrocities Prevention Board?:

Back in August, President Obama signed into existence PSD-10, a Presidential Study Directive on Mass Atrocities. When it was first released, PSD-10 was well-received by liberal interventionists and those who believe that preventative diplomacy and coordinated action can head-off mass killings, Anne-Marie Slaughter and myself included. ...
...
... The Directive determined that an interagency study, led by the National Security Advisor, would be complete within 100 days, to determine the full mandate and make-up of the body, as well as its processes. The resulting Atrocities Prevention Board was to begin its work 120 days after the signature of PSD-10, on August 4, 2011. It has now been 147 days.

Since August 4th, precisely nothing has come out of the White House on the matter. There have been no stories written, in the mainstream media on the development of the Board since late August. None. Nothing on interagency squabbles that would prevent its creation, nothing on how close it is to launch, nothing on how David Pressman’s War Crimes, Atrocities and Civilian Protection directorate at the NSC is proceeding. Nothing.

That was posted on December 29, 2011.

From Human Rights First:

DNI Testimony Reiterates Administration Priorities on Genocide Prevention
2-10-2012
By Crimes Against Humanity Program

Last week, a little-noticed passage on mass atrocities made its way into the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI) annual testimony to Congress. The passage reaffirmed the President’s proclamation that the prevention of mass atrocities and genocide is a core U.S. national security interest and moral responsibility, and committed the U.S. intelligence community (IC) to play a significant role in the forthcoming Atrocities Prevention Board.

IF the Board has been appointed and staffed since 10 Feb 2012, I'd like to know the personnel selected, since they would shape its findings and proposed COAs. As the President stated in the Directive:

In the face of a potential mass atrocity, our options are never limited to either sending in the military or standing by and doing nothing. The actions that can be taken are many: they range from economic to diplomatic interventions, and from non combat military actions to outright intervention. But ensuring that the full range of options is available requires a level of governmental organization that matches the methodical organization characteristic of mass killings.

Actions do speak loudly.

Regards

Mike

PS: I know I'm not eligible. When I took my wife out in Jan (anniversary), I noticed I forgot to shave for two days (occupational hazard of a Retired Gentleman), and told her: "Hell, I look like George Clooney." She (immediately): "No you don't."

[jmm99]

TZ for 9-10 Mar has a number of "Syria" articles. Two were of most interest to me.

Syrian army officers defect to Turkey:

9 March 2012 / AP, ANKARA

Turkish officials said Friday that two Syrian generals, a colonel and two sergeants have defected from the Syrian army and crossed into Turkey, a day after Syria's deputy oil minister also deserted President Bashar Assad's regime.

The defections come amid reports of Syrian army assaults on the northern Syrian province of Idlib, which borders Turkey, and as UN humanitarian chief Valerie Amos toured Syrian refugee camps along the Turkish-Syrian border before talks with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
...
On Thursday, Syria's deputy oil minister became the highest-ranking civilian official to join the opposition and urged his countrymen to "abandon this sinking ship" as the nation spirals toward civil war. Abdo Husameddine, 58, announced in a video that he has defected.

The officers and the two sergeants were in a group of some 234 Syrians who have fled to Turkey since Thursday, Yusuf Gler, the administrator for the Turkish border town of Reyhanli told Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency, without providing any information on their identities.

Gler said the defectors and other refugees were taken to camps near the border with Syria. Some 12,000 Syrians now live in six refugee camps in the region.

Brig. Gen. Mostafa Ahmad al-Sheik, who fled to Turkey in January, was the highest ranking officer to bolt. ....

and PKK card tests Turkish-Syrian relations, experts say:

9 March 2012 / ABDULLAH AYASUN, İSTANBUL

With Turkey appearing at the forefront of discussions over international intervention in Syria -- particularly regarding the implementation of a humanitarian corridor in order to bring help to civilians who are trapped in besieged cities-- the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) is one of the key elements in a puzzle that could radically change Turkeys stance towards the tumultuous country.

The unfolding Syrian puzzle, which has continued for over a year, poses complicated challenges for Turkey stemming not only from humanitarian concerns over the unabated violence carried out by Syrias Baath regime but also signs of the growing PKK presence in northern Syria, which are fuelling uncertainty over the future of relations between the two countries.
...
Facing a battle of survival, experts have noted the Baath regime is likely to attempt any measures possible to prevent or delay its collapse with regard to a possible foreign military intervention. For this reason, according to some observers Syria may begin to play the PKK card against its northern neighbor if Turkey is seen to take the lead in a possible military operation against the stricken country.

On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu touched upon the case and issued an open warning to Damascus, saying that Turkey would deploy troops in Syria to protect its national security. Pointing out that every option is open for discussion, Davutoğlu signaled that the government would seek authorization from Parliament to send Turkish troops over the border if it is deemed necessary to prevent the PKK crossing into Turkish territory.

A report appeared in Todays Zaman on Wednesday that addressed the growing PKK influence in northern Syrias current power vacuum. However, the question arises: What is the nature of the PKK presence in Syria? Would Syria give a free-hand to the PKK to do whatever it wants? To what extent will it turn a blind-eye to PKK operations in the North?

The fact is that the presence of armed PKK groups has become visible and obvious in Syria, particularly near the Turkish border near the southern regions of Gaziantep and Kahramanmaraş. This is real. Nobody can deny that, but the Turkish authorities seem unaware of the seriousness of the situation, said Gkhan Bacık, an international relations professor and director of the Middle East Research Center (MESRC) at Gaziantep Zirve University, in remarks to Todays Zaman made earlier in the week.

Bacık argued that Syria is unlikely to let PKK groups use its borders to attack Turkey for the time being, in order to avoid giving Turkey a reason to intervene. But, he added, the PKK is not a monolithic structure and is not controllable and therefore nobody is sure what course of action they will choose to take. He noted that Turkey would only act if the PKK staged a series of attacks against Turkey from across the Syrian border.

Regards

Mike