Syria: a civil war (closed)

[jcustis]

I'm a bit perplexed over the goings-on in Syria. Assad is supporting by the Shiite minority, but has been putting down a number of protests and open fighting through substantial force.

Is his military predominantly Shiite as well? If not, then any clues as to why Egypt changed so quietly compared to the northern neighbor?

The lack of independent reporting coming out of Syria is frustrating, as I haven't really had the time to dig deeply enough to find the nuggets that no doubt exist, but what is Assad telling his troops that is convincing them the protesters need to be handled at the end of a gun?

[davidbfpo]

Jon,

This slightly dated summary or Q&A by the BBC may help:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13374395

How is Syria different from Egypt or Libya?

There are several factors that complicate the crisis in Syria.

Mr Assad enjoys strong support within many segments of Syrian society, mostly among minorities, the middle class and the business elite.

There are fears of a civil war if President Assad should fall. Syria is made up of a precarious mix of confessions - 75% Sunni; 10% Christian, 3% Druze and 3% Shia (mostly Alawite). Even among those who want to see serious reforms, many would prefer to give President Assad time to implement them.
Unlike in Egypt, there is no daylight between the army and the regime. The armed forces are overwhelmingly made up of Alawites, so they too are in a fight to maintain their power and privilege. While there have been reports of low-level defections, the military command appears solid.

To which I would add the regime is ruthless, to an extent we find hard to follow. This week I watched some footage of a protest being broken up, mainly by plain-clothed men armed with clubs and knives.

[ganulv]

[W]hat is Assad telling his troops that is convincing them the protesters need to be handled at the end of a gun?

I’m not an expert on the region but my understanding is that there may be two things going on. The first is an armed insurgency presumably organized along sectarian lines (i.e., they are Sunni) and the second is civil unrest in opposition to a corrupt and brutal bureaucracy. I would assume Assad—or more likely his brother—is talking to his troops a lot about the former and much less about the latter.

Also worth keeping in mind is the fact that about 10% of the Syrian population is Kurdish (most of whom are Sunni).

While some people don’t care for his politics Robert Fisk has spent a long career on the ground in the region.

[jcustis]

I think much of what I have difficulty reconciling are the measures taken against what appear to be protests. I guess even whispers and fears of a gun (and certainly true presence of one) are enough to make poor troops open fire.

[ganulv]

I think much of what I have difficulty reconciling are the measures taken against what appear to be protests. I guess even whispers and fears of a gun (and certainly true presence of one) are enough to make poor troops open fire.

Given the conduct of Syrian troops in 1982 in Hama and during the Syrian occupation of Lebanon I have to think poor troops are only part of the story. Last week the BBC ran an (unconfirmed, of course) report that had the Syrian military involved in crop destruction.

I once heard someone (Aaron Sheenan-Dean, I think, in regards to Confederate soldiers’ motivations during the waning portion of the Civil War) say words to the effect that when someone is convinced that the very existence of their society is in question then his or her conception of appropriate behavior tends to change drastically. There is justifiable reason to worry that a Damascus in 2012 without Assad might look something like Baghdad in 2006 without Saddam Hussein. I don’t think that justifies shooting into crowds of civilian protesters or that there aren’t other factors at work in such shootings but it is my guess that anxieties about that kind of scenario are very much on the minds of the members of the Syrian military right now.

[AdamG]

Turkey has agreed that NATO can turn its airbase in Turkey into a base for ground operations into Syria. The country will become the main base in the area for the US-led military alliance’s ground forces.

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=799355

[davidbfpo]

I am sure there was a mention on BBC Radio 4 today that one option was the creation of a 'safe haven' across the Turkish-Syrian border. No-one sensible expects that today, simply as Syria will not agree.

As for grander schemes, as the previous post reported, they are IMHO rubbish. There is currently much diplomatic posturing, in the knowledge there are very few realistic options to curtail Syrian state action.

[JMA]

Turkey has agreed that NATO can turn its airbase in Turkey into a base for ground operations into Syria. The country will become the main base in the area for the US-led military alliance’s ground forces.

Has this been verified as accurate?

[Rex Brynen]

I think much of what I have difficulty reconciling are the measures taken against what appear to be protests. I guess even whispers and fears of a gun (and certainly true presence of one) are enough to make poor troops open fire.

Exactly right--and there have also been quite a few cases of Syrian troops being fired upon. Consequently the Syrian reaction is an oscillating case of much-more-softly-than-Hama, and disorganized/fearful brutality.

On top of that, the regimes knows that 1) if it is too brutal, Sunni officers and personnel might start to defect, 2) if it isn't brutal enough, the protests spread.

[davidbfpo]

An opinion piece, which is sub-titled:

The popular uprisings in the Arab world are a great disaster for a radical camp led by Syria-Iran and long indulged by media such as al-Jazeera. A great opportunity follows..

Particularly interesting the comments on Al-Jazeera.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/hazem-s...s-end-to-dogma

[Rex Brynen]

Particularly interesting the comments on Al-Jazeera.

al-Jazeera is linked to Qatari foreign policy? I'm shocked, shocked!