Syria: a civil war (closed)

[AmericanPride]

A BBC News report from Idlib Province and a very curious photo of a Free Syrian Army (FSA) member carrying a M4 rifle, with a telescopic sight. Such a weapon does not IMO sit easily alongside the regular footage of the FSA with their AK's, RPD's etc. Have the Gulf States already started shipping in such weapons? Not to overlook the 'black market' and other local users.

This appeared in the WSJ at the end of last month. And like you stated, one can't overlook the black market (especially with the Iraq War 2003 - 2011). Also interesting is the (apparent) ramp up of public policy discussions about developing plans for US intervention in the country.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Londonistani for identifying a Canadian-Syrian's blogging on Syrian, background analysis and on a quick scan making observations I've not seen before, notably the extent of support for the Bashir regime:http://creativesyria.com/syriapage/

[davidbfpo]

The events in Houla have brought Syria back to the fore and there has been much talk about this incident being a "tipping point".

What happened in Houla? A very short version:

Friday's massacre of 108 people - including 49 children and 34 women - in the Houla area of Homs province. Witnesses have told the UN the vast majority of killings were committed by pro-government shabiha militiamen.

The militia allegedly coming from adjacent Alawite villages.

Link for summary:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18260992 and link for more details:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18233934

The UN's efforts aside, with the Arab League, appear to be worthless and R2P is having a battering - as listened to on a BBC radio programme this week.

The comments on a "tipping point" obscure the fact that such points are rarely recognised at the time.

William Shawcross in 'Deliver us from Evil, a history of UN peacekeeping' wrote:

Reconciliation is much favoured in today’s peacekeeping efforts, but sometimes the desire for it is unrealistic...Today we demand instant reconciliation. The examples of Bosnia, Rwanda and Kosovo show that often that just cannot happen.

Cited in a long comment:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-in-sight.html

Finally methinks the thread's title needs changing - Civil War has arrived or is close?

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Enduring America for locating this report on the Vice website 'My Four Days of Madness with the FSA':http://www.vice.com/read/behind-enem...Contentpage=-1

Moderator's Note: On 5th June 2012 this thread's title was changed from 'Uprising in Syria now?' to 'Syria: a civil war'.

[JMA]

Hat tip to Enduring America for locating this report on the Vice website 'My Four Days of Madness with the FSA':http://www.vice.com/read/behind-enem...Contentpage=-1

Moderator's Note: On 5th June 2012 this thread's title was changed from 'Uprising in Syria now?' to 'Syria: a civil war'.

I don't know about this name change as it kind of indicates that the problem lies within Syria itself when we know that the situation has been allowed to deteriorate due to the inability of Europe to flex any muscle and the sheer gutlessness once again of the US to chance a face off with Russia and China. Once more we have a case study of inept foreign policy from North American and European countries.

[davidbfpo]

JMA,

Point taken, but I do feel that the key players in Syria are Syrians. They are the actors, everyone else is a reactor.

Now a few reflections.

I had missed that the original location of the street protests were in places known for their loyalty to the regime, what was the regime's reaction? Brutality, with arrests in Deraa, prisoners who were tortured and threats made to their families. Observers consider that 2m have been displaced inside Syria, with the UN saying 200k are refugees and others 450-500k. Given the regime's brutality one can only imagine what the families of the 70k detained feel (far greater scale than in Iran's Green Protest), let alone an estimated 35k who are missing.

Syria faces a protracted struggle. A civil war that currently sees the armed opposition in a defensive mode and the regime having enough troops, including a large number of retained conscripts and called-up reservists alongside a force of dedicated loyalists estimated at 75k, for "fire-fighting" or mobile oppression.

One well-informed observer considers that the opposition has 20% of the population in support and the vast majority are 'sitting on the fence". Syria is an urban country, with a few large cities. That is why watchers considered the street protests in Aleppo recently were significant and the regime's determination to stifle any dissent in Damascus.

For reasons maybe lost on most here there is a strong regional belief in conspiracy, not cock-up, as an explanation for what is happening; even when it is simple they look for a conspiracy.

Perhaps some of this belief lies in demography? Over half the population are aged 15-29yrs and 3.2% over 65yrs; quite different from Western Europe.

Additionally there is the promise of the 'Arab Spring', a regional Arab search for legitimacy in government and in Syria especially a demand to have a real democracy and human rights.

[Jedburgh]

Jamestown Foundation, 1 June 2012: Syrian Tribal Networks and their Implications for the Syrian Uprising

Sunni Arab tribalism has a significant socio-cultural, political, and security impact on the current uprising in Syria, with strong implications for post-Assad governance formation. Tribalism has fueled unrest throughout Syria, including in places such as Dera’a, where mass opposition demonstrations began on March 15, 2011, in the eastern city of Deir al-Zor on the Euphrates River, and in the suburbs of Homs and Damascus, where some of the fiercest combat between the Syrian military and armed opposition groups has occurred. Millions of rural and urban Syrians express an active tribal identity and tribal affiliation is used extensively to mobilize the political and armed opposition against the Assad government as well as to organize paramilitary forces in support of the Syrian regime. Both the Syrian opposition and the Assad government recognize the political importance of the tribal networks that cross Syria and extend into neighboring countries. As a result, the support of Syria’s tribes is a strategic goal for both the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition.....