Syria: a civil war (closed)

[Rex Brynen]

Time to raise this at the UNSC? I think so.

I would be enormously happy to see the Asad regime toppled or held to account. However, I see little point raising it at the UNSC--unlike their abstentions on Libya, there's no chance that China or Russia would support any sort of action against Syria.

[JMA]

I would be enormously happy to see the Asad regime toppled or held to account. However, I see little point raising it at the UNSC--unlike their abstentions on Libya, there's no chance that China or Russia would support any sort of action against Syria.

I merely suggest that the process be started in seeking resolutions condemning the Assad regime. If mere condemnation alone is all that is possible then that is a good first step. If one can start along the path to freezing assets, an arms embargo etc it will be better.

Interesting to see how BRIC countries, now BRICS, all on the UNSC vote and the position they take on Syria.

Good time to get in early with a strong demonstration of solidarity with the "suffering" people of Syria and let the BRICS countries show their hand.

[jmm99]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960, Resolution 134 (1960) of 1 April 1960 (the key "mandate"; love the date ):

4. Calls upon the Government of the Union of South Africa to initiate measures aimed at bringing about racial harmony based on equality in order to ensure that the present situation does not continue or recur, and to abandon its policies of apartheid and racial discrimination;

5. Requests the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Government of the Union of South Africa, to make such arrangements as would adequately help in upholding the purposes and principles of the Charter and to report to the Security Council whenever necessary and appropriate.

Adopted at the 856th meeting by 9 votes to none, with 2 abstentions (France, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

Is this what you want the UN to do ?

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960,

I see a real similarity between the two where a regime killed a number of its citizens who were involved in a non-violent protest action.

The numbers are significant say compared to the four at Kent State and the furore that followed that.

I merely suggest that a motion of condemnation be attempted through the UNSC.

I further suggest that 22 April will probably become a day that will remembered in the history of Syria as being the turning point in their struggle for democratic and human rights and marked as a public holiday.

[jmm99]

the vote on a Resolution to "Condemn" (cf., Res. 134) - and the "play by play" from our President and Secretary of State. Why they elect to do that is beyond me - trying to get ahead of the story, I suppose.

Kent State (killing four students and wounding nine others) and Jackson State (killing two students and injuring twelve) were relatively small in numbers.

In materiality, they were huge. We had started to kill each other. We had to stop that, regardless of fault. The 1970s were a very dicey period in our (US) history - in a real sense, a period of some insanity until matters evened out somewhat in the 1980s.

I've no crystal ball on this Arab World "1848" - the Euro 1848 did not lead to immediate change (but built in a long-term "IED" which blew during WWI). I notice that Pat Cockburn is predicting that the Arab rebels (at least in some places) are in for a thrashing, Patrick Cockburn: The regimes are rallying their forces. Is the tide turning against Arab freedom?.

I haven't the foggiest.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

the vote on a Resolution to "Condemn" (cf., Res. 134) - and the "play by play" from our President and Secretary of State. Why they elect to do that is beyond me - trying to get ahead of the story, I suppose.

Better coming from Europe I suggest, best from Germany.

Knowing the reticence of the US to even appear to confront Russia who is an ally of the Syrian regime not holding my breath on any action from that side.

Kent State (killing four students and wounding nine others) and Jackson State (killing two students and injuring twelve) were relatively small in numbers.

In materiality, they were huge. We had started to kill each other. We had to stop that, regardless of fault. The 1970s were a very dicey period in our (US) history - in a real sense, a period of some insanity until matters evened out somewhat in the 1980s.

The same situation has developed in the "Arab World" (they are killing each other) and maybe the people on the receiving end need a little help?

I sincerely hope they will not be left in the lurch like the people of Hungary 1956 were.

I've no crystal ball on this Arab World "1848" - the Euro 1848 did not lead to immediate change (but built in a long-term "IED" which blew during WWI). I notice that Pat Cockburn is predicting that the Arab rebels (at least in some places) are in for a thrashing, Patrick Cockburn: The regimes are rallying their forces. Is the tide turning against Arab freedom?.

I haven't the foggiest.

Regards

Mike

I suggest that the defeat of these Arab regimes by the people is indeed inevitable.

From Sharpeville to 1994 elections took 34 years. In Hungary from betrayal to eventual freedom took 33 years. The easy ones (Tunisia, Egypt) are done (well the first phase that is). From now on it will be increasingly difficult... and these people will need help. By being seen to help Arabs in a country which does not have oil will be good PR

As the US seems intent to sit on its hands I truly believe that the Brits must pull their forces out of America's war in Afghanistan and position (what they can) in the Mediterranean and prepare to assist the Arab and later the African peoples free themselves. Same applies to the French.

[Dayuhan]

Better coming from Europe I suggest, best from Germany.

Knowing the reticence of the US to even appear to confront Russia who is an ally of the Syrian regime not holding my breath on any action from that side.

Can't see how it would have anything to do with Russia, but I can see why the US wouldn't want to be seen to be doing hatchet work for the Israelis, which is how any US move against Syria would look. Better to see it initiated by Europe, far better still from the Muslim world or at least somewhere outside the Old Colonists Club.

I sincerely hope they will not be left in the lurch like the people of Hungary 1956 were.

Since you like ranting about nations having blood on their hands, why not tell us how much blood the US would have on our hands if we'd gone to war with the Soviets in Europe? A rough estimate will do.

Nobody got "betrayed" in Hungary, or in Libya. You can't betray someone to whom you have no responsibility.

[JMA]

... the UNSC is working out a resolution on Syria. 300-400 already dead but not to expect any quick action from the UNSC.

I would (if I were the US president ) give the Russians until the end of the month to reign in the Syrian regime or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

The momentum is building nicely...

[Lamson719]

Hi,

I am new to this forum. I'm from London (non military.) I have interviewed a few people for SWJ (Iraq diplomats, Jim Willbanks)

I don't think this is the end for Assad, but it could be the beginning of the end.

While Russia and China are likely to be neutral or supportive, Syria's recent new ally Turkey are publicly uncomfortable with the crackdowns.

Add to that a large number of Baathist resignations, reports of troops disobeying orders (and troop vs. troop firefights apparently) combined with divisions at the high level of Assads inner circle and the ruling Alawite Shias, he is definitely in trouble.

The problem is, the military seem so far extremely loyal- like Gaddafi he appears to have skilfully organised and deployed them to avoid a coup. (there were many coups in Syria from the 50's to the 60's. If I remember rightly Jeremy Bowen counted 12 in the 1950's alone.)

Likewise, I don't see how much more sanctions can hurt a regime that's suffering economically quite badly already.

While we can fund opposition (and the good news is there is a strong non salafi element, like in Libya and Egypt) there is not much we can do apart from sanction, fund, watch and hope.

Ironically, I think it is these secular tyrants who have facilitated the secular, facebook organised opposition to their rule.

It would be damn good to see Assad go down. The challenge is that the west rise to the Arab spring- like in Libya and Egypt, that will involve a distinct outreach campaign, to bravely say, "this is a clean slate. Let's drink a (non alcoholic) toast to the future." Now is not the time to fear Islam.

If we get this right, this could be the end of Arab Nationalism AND Al Qaida...


In the meantime, lets hope Iraq's border with Syria is kept as tightly shut as possible.