Syria: a civil war (closed)

[J Wolfsberger]

Well, JMA, here goes:

For example your man Wolfsberger states that if Assad is taken out it "would lead to complete chaos". Where did he pluck this from? Sadly he states this opinion (his opinion) as a fact. He gives no inkling as to how he is able to state this with such certainty. You should not fall into this trap as well.

He can speak for himself, but he would probably look at prior cases, recent and otherwise, where dictators have been removed by outside force (Iraq, Libya, etc). He'd likely listen to what people who study Syrian politics have to say. He'd probably at least consider the possibility that various factions would contend to fill the power vacuum left by Assad's removal, and the possibility that the contention would involve violence.

Dayuhan pretty much covers it.

As best I can understand it, you believe that (Point A) launching a few cruise missiles, perhaps in conjunction with some raids by special ops forces, will result in (Point B) an end to the violence and the replacement of the Assad regime with one that will have some probability of being a representative, participatory government.

After offering your two or three cruise missile solution, you were asked to discuss planning, execution, consequences and likely outcomes, all in the context of local, regional and global actors and their interests.

What we've received in response has been insults about anything and everything, directed at nearly everyone, having only the constant thread of assertions of your brilliance. At the same time, your posts show remarkably poor skill at responding to the substance of others posts, instead responding to what you wanted them to have written. (I was very surprised at how far back I had to go in this thread to find any substantive post from you.)

In the U.S., when someone presents a course of action (point A) and a desired outcome (point B), without any discussion of the current situation, the effects of the plan or the full range of potential outcomes and consequences, we refer to it as "magical thinking." It's not a compliment.

I don't respond to many of your posts because I learned to ignore playground taunts around the age of 10. Other than that, your posts have little substance: "there's no there, there."

What do you think would happen if Assad were "taken out", and why do you think that?

Which is one of many questions you should probably answer (absent gratuitous insults to all and sundry and the unproven assertions of your own brilliance) if you want any credibility as a serious participant.