Syria: a civil war (closed)

[Tukhachevskii]

OK, so that's what they (the so-called experts) think, now what do you think?

1. I am not an expert (although I have studied and been taught by a lot of them.

2. My intitial appraisal of the situation based upon what information I have (which I have interpreted contectually based upon past study) is located in post #7 above. It's not detailed, certainly isn't predictive and I don't claim to have any priveleged insight with regards to Syria. Ultimately, we cannot say for certian what trajectory events will take other than events have their own way of altering the situation (how's that for an honourable mention of Macmillan ["event's, dear boy, events..."]). Prior to Ghaddafi digging his heels in people thought that states in the MENA would fall like dominoes. Assad now knows that, with NATO embroiled in a war against the Lybian government (Ghadafi is, after all, still the leader in de facto if not de jure terms; legitimacy is a difficult metric to apply), that elements of international society (among them Russia who has strateguc/naval interests in Syria) as well as other states (such as Turkey which is a NATO member state and almost scuppered NATO's application iof airpower) will not sanction any further extension of the "Bush 2.0" doctrine (that's an attempt at humour by the way, not a polemical statement). With the international and regional balance of opinion tiliting in favour of stability (by any means) as oppsoed to "assisted regime change/state capture", which is essentially what NATO is doing, Asad knows he has to act carefully (they'll be no repeat of Hama, nor need there be). Asad's may rule may be based upon the control of key posts by his fellow co-religionists but has has, since 2000, successully co-opted the Sunni elite/borgeoisie(sp?) many of whom will see their gains in the regime threatened and will stand aside or grumble but, I don't think, they'll "switch" sides. Asad is a shrewd as his father and, geopolitically, he has "friends". Importantly, Syria isn't economically important to Europe nor is it on Europe's doorstep which applys the brakes a little when it comes to prodding regional actors into action. Things are open ended, anyone may make a mistake, or events may take a turn for the worse but I am certain that things aren't as clear cut as statements/commentators that proclaim "Asad will fall" predict them to be.

[JMA]

1. I am not an expert (although I have studied and been taught by a lot of them.

2. My intitial appraisal of the situation based upon what information I have...
[snipped]

Thank you for the detailed reply. Lets see how it all pans out there.

[JMA]

75 killed in deadliest day of Syria uprising

Syrian security forces fired bullets and tear gas Friday on pro-democracy demonstrations across the country, killing at least 75 people — including a young boy — in the bloodiest day of the uprising against President Bashar Assad's authoritarian regime, Amnesty International said, citing local activists.

Remember the Sharpeville massacre in South Africa of 21 March 1960 that outraged the world? 69 killed and 180 injured/wounded.



Time to raise this at the UNSC? I think so.

[Rex Brynen]

Time to raise this at the UNSC? I think so.

I would be enormously happy to see the Asad regime toppled or held to account. However, I see little point raising it at the UNSC--unlike their abstentions on Libya, there's no chance that China or Russia would support any sort of action against Syria.

[JMA]

I would be enormously happy to see the Asad regime toppled or held to account. However, I see little point raising it at the UNSC--unlike their abstentions on Libya, there's no chance that China or Russia would support any sort of action against Syria.

I merely suggest that the process be started in seeking resolutions condemning the Assad regime. If mere condemnation alone is all that is possible then that is a good first step. If one can start along the path to freezing assets, an arms embargo etc it will be better.

Interesting to see how BRIC countries, now BRICS, all on the UNSC vote and the position they take on Syria.

Good time to get in early with a strong demonstration of solidarity with the "suffering" people of Syria and let the BRICS countries show their hand.

[jmm99]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960, Resolution 134 (1960) of 1 April 1960 (the key "mandate"; love the date ):

4. Calls upon the Government of the Union of South Africa to initiate measures aimed at bringing about racial harmony based on equality in order to ensure that the present situation does not continue or recur, and to abandon its policies of apartheid and racial discrimination;

5. Requests the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Government of the Union of South Africa, to make such arrangements as would adequately help in upholding the purposes and principles of the Charter and to report to the Security Council whenever necessary and appropriate.

Adopted at the 856th meeting by 9 votes to none, with 2 abstentions (France, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

Is this what you want the UN to do ?

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960,

I see a real similarity between the two where a regime killed a number of its citizens who were involved in a non-violent protest action.

The numbers are significant say compared to the four at Kent State and the furore that followed that.

I merely suggest that a motion of condemnation be attempted through the UNSC.

I further suggest that 22 April will probably become a day that will remembered in the history of Syria as being the turning point in their struggle for democratic and human rights and marked as a public holiday.

[jmm99]

the vote on a Resolution to "Condemn" (cf., Res. 134) - and the "play by play" from our President and Secretary of State. Why they elect to do that is beyond me - trying to get ahead of the story, I suppose.

Kent State (killing four students and wounding nine others) and Jackson State (killing two students and injuring twelve) were relatively small in numbers.

In materiality, they were huge. We had started to kill each other. We had to stop that, regardless of fault. The 1970s were a very dicey period in our (US) history - in a real sense, a period of some insanity until matters evened out somewhat in the 1980s.

I've no crystal ball on this Arab World "1848" - the Euro 1848 did not lead to immediate change (but built in a long-term "IED" which blew during WWI). I notice that Pat Cockburn is predicting that the Arab rebels (at least in some places) are in for a thrashing, Patrick Cockburn: The regimes are rallying their forces. Is the tide turning against Arab freedom?.

I haven't the foggiest.

Regards

Mike

[Lamson719]

Hi,

I am new to this forum. I'm from London (non military.) I have interviewed a few people for SWJ (Iraq diplomats, Jim Willbanks)

I don't think this is the end for Assad, but it could be the beginning of the end.

While Russia and China are likely to be neutral or supportive, Syria's recent new ally Turkey are publicly uncomfortable with the crackdowns.

Add to that a large number of Baathist resignations, reports of troops disobeying orders (and troop vs. troop firefights apparently) combined with divisions at the high level of Assads inner circle and the ruling Alawite Shias, he is definitely in trouble.

The problem is, the military seem so far extremely loyal- like Gaddafi he appears to have skilfully organised and deployed them to avoid a coup. (there were many coups in Syria from the 50's to the 60's. If I remember rightly Jeremy Bowen counted 12 in the 1950's alone.)

Likewise, I don't see how much more sanctions can hurt a regime that's suffering economically quite badly already.

While we can fund opposition (and the good news is there is a strong non salafi element, like in Libya and Egypt) there is not much we can do apart from sanction, fund, watch and hope.

Ironically, I think it is these secular tyrants who have facilitated the secular, facebook organised opposition to their rule.

It would be damn good to see Assad go down. The challenge is that the west rise to the Arab spring- like in Libya and Egypt, that will involve a distinct outreach campaign, to bravely say, "this is a clean slate. Let's drink a (non alcoholic) toast to the future." Now is not the time to fear Islam.

If we get this right, this could be the end of Arab Nationalism AND Al Qaida...


In the meantime, lets hope Iraq's border with Syria is kept as tightly shut as possible.