Syria: a civil war (closed)

[JMA]

From Space War: Commentary: Is Syria 2011 Spain 1936?
by Arnaud De Borchgrave

I don't agree with all his conclusions, but it does a good job of placing the Syrian uprising in the broader context. In particular, it brought to mind the political science definition of prestige: a state's reputation for being able to assert its will. With that in mind, De Borchgrave makes the point that, in the Middle East and especially around the Arab Gulf, U.S. is low. Whether that is an argument for or against intervention, he does point out the risky consequences of intervention.

He does make the interesting assertion that "Saudi Arabia is helping arm Syrian rebels who now call themselves revolutionaries."

He also notes:

Privately, Persian Gulf leaders say Iran has concluded the United States' days as a superpower are numbered. Iran's aging theocrats tell their visiting gulf interlocutors that America has lost two wars in 10 years -- Iraq and Afghanistan -- and is pulling out of Europe and "pivoting" to Asia where China is already dominant.

and...

Unless Iran's current view of a rapidly declining U.S. superpower can be reversed, a number of Arab Gulf rulers will be tempted into longer lasting accommodation with Tehran.

[Ray]

I wonder how far is it doing good in so far as western interests are concerned.

Libya has been liberated. Egypt has been liberated.

The radicals seem to have taken over!

They are still in a flux to make a solid 'impression'.

But given the way things are in the Islamic world, Islam is über alles!

And Saudi money flowing all over the world is no help!

[jmm99]

Welcome to the interesting situation in Southwest Asia.

I agree that the "Arab Spring" could go off in an extremist (Islamist) direction. Moreover, the best result that could be expected in any country is the present state of Turkey (as I'd likely view the results from where I sit). As things stand in Southwest Asia and North Africa, Turkey is a moderating force.

The AKP - Justice and Development Party (Turkey) and its "paper of record", the Turkish daily Zaman ("era in time"; as in "our times" or the "Times") [TZ - Today's Zaman, the English-language edition], as moderate Islamics (not Islamists), portray themselves as favorable to both the Western world and to the Arab world. In the Turkish political spectrum, AKP advocates a conservative social agenda and a liberal market economy that includes Turkish membership in the European Union; but has pursued an aggressive "good guy" image to the Arab world since 2005.

While Turkey has not always been an admirable society, its core component (its ordinary people, solidly Islamic) have qualities that I find admirable. E.g., during the Korean War, Turkish POWs died not from starvation (they ate weeds), but from wounds inflicted by their captors. When the senior Turk was removed, the next senior took his place. The Turks never broke. The net result is that I follow TZ whenever something comes up in the Turkish sphere.

That being said, my news item is not from TZ, but from the Washington Post.

Syria’s Bashar al-Assad firmly in control, U.S. intelligence officials say (by Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung, Published: March 9; Updated: Saturday, March 10) (emphasis added):

A year into the uprising in Syria, senior U.S. intelligence officials described the nation’s president, Bashar al-Assad, on Friday as firmly in control and increasingly willing to unleash one of the region’s most potent militaries on badly overmatched opposition groups.

The officials also said Assad’s inner circle is “remaining steadfast,” with little indication that senior figures in the regime are inclined to peel off, despite efforts by the Obama administration and its allies to use sanctions and other measures to create a wave of defections that would undermine Assad.

Assad “is very much in charge,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official responsible for tracking the conflict, adding that Assad and his inner circle seem convinced that the rebellion is being driven by external foes and that they are equipped to withstand all but a large-scale military intervention.
... (much more in article)

In contingency planning, one must consider "a large-scale military intervention" as a contingency. Given the geographic proximity, one must first consider Turkey (sans US-NATO to keep it basic) as the intervenor, giving my two basic hypotheticals (presented a few pages ago):

1. If Turkey were to proceed with a conventional armed intervention - a 1 on 1 with Syria with full commitment of military forces by both states, who would win ?

No US-NATO support of any kind for the Turks; and Russia and China stay out of it completely (other than making noises about "aggressive war", etc.).

2. If Turkey were to proceed with a conventional armed intervention into Syria, and Iran responds with a conventional armed attack on Turkey - a 2 on 1 with full commitment of military forces by all three states, who would win ?

No US-NATO support of any kind for the Turks; and Russia and China stay out of it completely (other than making noises about "aggressive war", etc.).

If you want a definition of "win" - find, fix and finish by destroying the enemy's will to resist.

Contingency planning would also include diplomatic solutions. Here is one suggested to me from reading TZ and its columnists over the last few months:

A Turkish-brokered diplomatic deal involving Turkey, Iran and the Arab League (Saudi and the Gulf states as the money partners) being the "peacekeepers" and guarantors of limited negotiated external interests (Russia-China; US-NATO) - a reverse Sykes-Picot, in effect.

That would enhance Turkey's "good guy" image, but would probably involve some other goodies that the AKP appears to want.

Finally, my personal position stands alongside Gian Gentile and Peter Munson.

Regards

Mike

Hey Ray: Cooperation and Friendship !

[Fuchs]

If you want a definition of "win" - find, fix and finish by destroying the enemy's will to resist.

I swear someday I will learn where this strange widespread insistence on "fix" in such simple three word rules comes from. Pretty sure the UK FMs are not the root of this obsession with the actually unnecessary "fix" stage.

[Dayuhan]

I swear someday I will learn where this strange widespread insistence on "fix" in such simple three word rules comes from.

It sounds cooler if they all start with "f", and the sequence has to be three.

[ganulv]

I swear someday I will learn where this strange widespread insistence on "fix" in such simple three word rules comes from. Pretty sure the UK FMs are not the root of this obsession with the actually unnecessary "fix" stage.

They have a tendency to insist that words are supposed to mean something. I’ve wondered the same myself. Are Fs #1 and #2 redundant (in the same way as a fellow I know who insists on signing his name as <Dr. King, PhD>)? Or does F #2 mean ‘keep in place’ (which is at least part of what I assume is meant when I read that Rangers support CAG operations)?

[Fuchs]

Yes, usually the "fix" part is about stopping and pinning down the enemy, apparently in order to make it easier to move into a good assault position, aim well or simply for having some time for deliberations.

The Find/Fix/Destroy sequence elevates "fix" well beyond it league, though. It's the most unnecessary part (to finding and to destroy isn't always useful either).


I dislike such simple maxims because they're dumbing down too much.

[jmm99]

F3EAD: Ops/Intel Fusion “Feeds” The SOF Targeting Process
by Charles Faint and Michael Harris
Journal Article | January 31, 2012

Fix

Once a target is identified, the full gamut of intelligence collection capability is applied against the target in order to develop operational triggers to “fix” the target in space and time. Fixing a target simply means that the intelligence effort has progressed enough that the operations function has sufficient information to execute the mission, whether that mission be kinetic or non-kinetic. When possible, SOF utilizes a practice of “federating” or spreading the intelligence effort out amongst multiple agencies in order to maximize effects while minimizing costs, effort, and time. This is often done as far forward as possible in order to increase the speed of the process, but much of the effort can be accomplished via reachback. Federated intelligence processes enable the organization practicing F3EAD to spread the collection effort across the IC, calling on specific organizations and in some cases specific personnel to provide the expertise and capability to bring the process into the “finish” phase. Redundant, persistent, and centralized intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capability allows commanders to mass ISR against a specific target for the period of time necessary to support F3EAD. The goal of an ISR is to provide an “unblinking eye” squarely focused on the target, to bring the targeting process into the decisive next phase.

The Targeting Process: D3A and F3EAD
by SWJ Editors
Journal Article | July 16, 2011

The Operational D3A framework emphasizes full spectrum operations throughout the conduct of operations. It takes the entire staff to identify the sources of instability that interdict the Shaping Operations that were designed to set the conditions to decisively achieve the Strategic Objectives outlined in the Campaign Plan. In contrast, F3EAD enables the dynamic tasking process required at Tactical targeting level in support of Full Spectrum Operations. Currently, F3EAD has emerged as the methodology of choice to address certain sources of instability such as Personality and Network Based Targeting.

D3A is a great planning tool but it lacks in agility to execute the dynamic tasking process in the full spectrum operations environment. F3EAD is a great execution tool in the full spectrum environment but it lacks in depth and fidelity during the planning process! Simply put, D3A is a great planning tool and F3EAD is a great execution tool for short suspense targets!

The Targeting Process: D3A and F3EAD
by Jimmy A. Gomez (pdf linked from SWJ Editors)

Regards

Mike

[ganulv]

But given the way things are in the Islamic world, Islam is ber alles!

When the mosque is the only civil institution not systematically snuffed out of existence by the bloaty strongman and his cronies over the decades-long course of their rule--because there are lines it is not smart to cross and because someone has to provide social services since most of the tax revenues are going into your offshore accounts--you end up with situations like these.