Syria: a civil war (closed)

[JMA]

I would be enormously happy to see the Asad regime toppled or held to account. However, I see little point raising it at the UNSC--unlike their abstentions on Libya, there's no chance that China or Russia would support any sort of action against Syria.

I merely suggest that the process be started in seeking resolutions condemning the Assad regime. If mere condemnation alone is all that is possible then that is a good first step. If one can start along the path to freezing assets, an arms embargo etc it will be better.

Interesting to see how BRIC countries, now BRICS, all on the UNSC vote and the position they take on Syria.

Good time to get in early with a strong demonstration of solidarity with the "suffering" people of Syria and let the BRICS countries show their hand.

[jmm99]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960, Resolution 134 (1960) of 1 April 1960 (the key "mandate"; love the date ):

4. Calls upon the Government of the Union of South Africa to initiate measures aimed at bringing about racial harmony based on equality in order to ensure that the present situation does not continue or recur, and to abandon its policies of apartheid and racial discrimination;

5. Requests the Secretary-General, in consultation with the Government of the Union of South Africa, to make such arrangements as would adequately help in upholding the purposes and principles of the Charter and to report to the Security Council whenever necessary and appropriate.

Adopted at the 856th meeting by 9 votes to none, with 2 abstentions (France, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).

Is this what you want the UN to do ?

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

of 1960 Sharpeville (covered by National Review to some extent) - and an intelligent conversation of several hours in 1965 with a SA U of Mich student (Capetown, Brit heritage) re: SA Race Relations (largely, I listened).

I find Sharpeville quite a bit distant from 2011 Syria (a materiality issue, not a relevancy issue); but that event may have made a distinct impression on you - depending on your age, proximity to it, etc.

In any event, here is what the UNSC did in 1960,

I see a real similarity between the two where a regime killed a number of its citizens who were involved in a non-violent protest action.

The numbers are significant say compared to the four at Kent State and the furore that followed that.

I merely suggest that a motion of condemnation be attempted through the UNSC.

I further suggest that 22 April will probably become a day that will remembered in the history of Syria as being the turning point in their struggle for democratic and human rights and marked as a public holiday.

[jmm99]

the vote on a Resolution to "Condemn" (cf., Res. 134) - and the "play by play" from our President and Secretary of State. Why they elect to do that is beyond me - trying to get ahead of the story, I suppose.

Kent State (killing four students and wounding nine others) and Jackson State (killing two students and injuring twelve) were relatively small in numbers.

In materiality, they were huge. We had started to kill each other. We had to stop that, regardless of fault. The 1970s were a very dicey period in our (US) history - in a real sense, a period of some insanity until matters evened out somewhat in the 1980s.

I've no crystal ball on this Arab World "1848" - the Euro 1848 did not lead to immediate change (but built in a long-term "IED" which blew during WWI). I notice that Pat Cockburn is predicting that the Arab rebels (at least in some places) are in for a thrashing, Patrick Cockburn: The regimes are rallying their forces. Is the tide turning against Arab freedom?.

I haven't the foggiest.

Regards

Mike

[JMA]

the vote on a Resolution to "Condemn" (cf., Res. 134) - and the "play by play" from our President and Secretary of State. Why they elect to do that is beyond me - trying to get ahead of the story, I suppose.

Better coming from Europe I suggest, best from Germany.

Knowing the reticence of the US to even appear to confront Russia who is an ally of the Syrian regime not holding my breath on any action from that side.

Kent State (killing four students and wounding nine others) and Jackson State (killing two students and injuring twelve) were relatively small in numbers.

In materiality, they were huge. We had started to kill each other. We had to stop that, regardless of fault. The 1970s were a very dicey period in our (US) history - in a real sense, a period of some insanity until matters evened out somewhat in the 1980s.

The same situation has developed in the "Arab World" (they are killing each other) and maybe the people on the receiving end need a little help?

I sincerely hope they will not be left in the lurch like the people of Hungary 1956 were.

I've no crystal ball on this Arab World "1848" - the Euro 1848 did not lead to immediate change (but built in a long-term "IED" which blew during WWI). I notice that Pat Cockburn is predicting that the Arab rebels (at least in some places) are in for a thrashing, Patrick Cockburn: The regimes are rallying their forces. Is the tide turning against Arab freedom?.

I haven't the foggiest.

Regards

Mike

I suggest that the defeat of these Arab regimes by the people is indeed inevitable.

From Sharpeville to 1994 elections took 34 years. In Hungary from betrayal to eventual freedom took 33 years. The easy ones (Tunisia, Egypt) are done (well the first phase that is). From now on it will be increasingly difficult... and these people will need help. By being seen to help Arabs in a country which does not have oil will be good PR

As the US seems intent to sit on its hands I truly believe that the Brits must pull their forces out of America's war in Afghanistan and position (what they can) in the Mediterranean and prepare to assist the Arab and later the African peoples free themselves. Same applies to the French.

[Dayuhan]

Better coming from Europe I suggest, best from Germany.

Knowing the reticence of the US to even appear to confront Russia who is an ally of the Syrian regime not holding my breath on any action from that side.

Can't see how it would have anything to do with Russia, but I can see why the US wouldn't want to be seen to be doing hatchet work for the Israelis, which is how any US move against Syria would look. Better to see it initiated by Europe, far better still from the Muslim world or at least somewhere outside the Old Colonists Club.

I sincerely hope they will not be left in the lurch like the people of Hungary 1956 were.

Since you like ranting about nations having blood on their hands, why not tell us how much blood the US would have on our hands if we'd gone to war with the Soviets in Europe? A rough estimate will do.

Nobody got "betrayed" in Hungary, or in Libya. You can't betray someone to whom you have no responsibility.

[JMA]

... the UNSC is working out a resolution on Syria. 300-400 already dead but not to expect any quick action from the UNSC.

I would (if I were the US president ) give the Russians until the end of the month to reign in the Syrian regime or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

The momentum is building nicely...

[Tukhachevskii]

... the UNSC is working out a resolution on Syria. 300-400 already dead but not to expect any quick action from the UNSC.

I would (if I were the US president ) give the Russians until the end of the month to reign in the Syrian regime or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

The momentum is building nicely...

If you were President of any country I would be afraid, very afraid.


Momentum? For what? Do you really think the Russians are going to take pointers (let alone orders) from the Yanks? Do you really think the Russians will get overflight rights from the Turks or the Georgians? Since when do te Russians care about protecting anyone else? They're old school as I am and don't see the point in intervention (humantiarian or otherwise unless absolutely necessary to maintain global/regional order a la Burke; they and I are adherents of Luttwak on that point, just see Libya).OTOH, in your world (which, IMO, is a completely different dimension) who would protect the Syrians from the Russian attempts to protect them?! (insert approproate emoticon)

[JMA]

Momentum? For what? Do you really think the Russians are going to take pointers (let alone orders) from the Yanks? Do you really think the Russians will get overflight rights from the Turks or the Georgians? Since when do te Russians care about protecting anyone else? They're old school as I am and don't see the point in intervention (humantiarian or otherwise unless absolutely necessary to maintain global/regional order a la Burke; they and I are adherents of Luttwak on that point, just see Libya).OTOH, in your world (which, IMO, is a completely different dimension) who would protect the Syrians from the Russian attempts to protect them?! (insert approproate emoticon)

Momentum for a revolution and the ouster of the regime.

Remember the option you did not see as likely:

... but I am certain that things aren't as clear cut as statements/commentators that proclaim "Asad will fall" predict them to be.

Maybe you want to reassess your position on Syria?

You misinterpret my statement (seems to happen often and I use misinterpret as opposed to misrepresent).

What did you think I meant by the Russians reigning in the regime in a few days (by the end of the month)? Was it not obvious that given the time frame I was suggesting political and diplomatic pressure? Now why did you jump to the conclusion that I was suggesting the Russians should intervene militarily in Syria?

So what the West should do (not holding my breath on the US doing much) is to say to the Syrian people - "how can we help you free yourself from the death-grip of this brutal regime?" - and see what comes out and be prepare to act.

Keep all the options open and one can always say to the Russians - "you had your chance to contribute, but you blew it."

With regard to Luttwak what he explains as THE EASY AND RELIABLE WAY OF DEFEATING ALL INSURGENCIES EVERYWHERE as the last section of this article is correct. But who has the will to do this? Who will be willing to out-terrorize the insurgents?

Mugabe, Sri Lanka, Gaddafi, China, etc etc but it is not an option for any western democracy. In Rhodesia we knew this as "the African Way" but it was not an option there either.

So if it is not an option what is the next best other option? This pop-centric crap they are trying in Afghanistan? Or what?

[AdamG]

Some soldiers reportedly refused to open fire against civilians in Deraa today, sparking clashes between units. A divided military could prove the undoing of Assad's regime.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...amid-crackdown

[JMA]

... as anticipated (by me anyway) Russia blocked any UNSC condemnation of the Syrian regime.

Push in U.N. for Criticism of Syria Is Rejected

Watch the BRICS nations as they start acting as a "block".

What to do now? More sanctions and this:

UNHRC to hold special Syria session Friday

“The international community has been shocked by the killing of hundreds of civilians in connection with peaceful political protests [in Syria] in the past week,” said US Ambassador to the UNHRC, Eileen Donahoe, on Wednesday.

Watch the voting on this one.

[davidbfpo]

We are aware that one of Gadafy's two active brigades is commanded by a son, so accordint to this is the brigade in Deraa:

Bashar has decided that Deraa is the epicentre of the revolt and so has deployed the military.

Not any military, but the 4th Armoured Division commanded by his brother Maher.

From:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...epression.aspx

So Adam G's previous post about dissent @ Deraa is even more interesting.

From the very limited, private film clips available and from my armchair I always wonder why heavy armour is preferred, not APCs and infantry. Nor am I impressed when the tank commander looses off a few shots from his heavy calibre MG, shots that will hit something.

[AdamG]

If you liked that, you'll love this -

Some 200 members of Syria's ruling Baath party are reported to have resigned over the violent crackdown against pro-democracy demonstrations.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13219853
see also
http://www.economist.com/node/186212...21246&fsrc=rss

[Rex Brynen]

We are aware that one of Gadafy's two active brigades is commanded by a son, so accordint to this is the brigade in Deraa:

While Maher has certainly been present at Darʿa and may have assumed command responsibilities (after all, who says no to an Asad?) he isn't the regular commander of the 4th AD, but rather commander of the Presidential Guard.

[Tukhachevskii]

Maybe you want to reassess your position on Syria?

Yep, but only this bit;

Asad knows he has to act carefully (they'll be no repeat of Hama, nor need there be).

As for this...

You misinterpret my statement (seems to happen often and I use misinterpret as opposed to misrepresent).

I will not actually take the time and effort to reply to you with the courtesy I try to show most people I disagree with. But as you seem to have a "beef" with anyone who doesn't follow the JMA party line (whatever that may be) I can't see the point.

Out

[Entropy]

I would (if I were the US president ) give the Russians until the end of the month to reign in the Syrian regime or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

That begs the question - you'd give them to the end of the month...or what? What are you willing to trade or threaten to gain Russian compliance? What will you do when Russia gives you the middle finger and tells you to mind your own business?

[Dayuhan]

That begs the question - you'd give them to the end of the month...or what? What are you willing to trade or threaten to gain Russian compliance? What will you do when Russia gives you the middle finger and tells you to mind your own business?

I think the "or" was meant to be this:

or will offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

Why that would worry the Russians is another question altogether: I'd guess they'd be perfectly happy to see the US taking on yet another messy intervention in the Middle East. I think they'd say "go for it", while laughing their backsides off.

[JMA]

That begs the question - you'd give them to the end of the month...or what? What are you willing to trade or threaten to gain Russian compliance? What will you do when Russia gives you the middle finger and tells you to mind your own business?

If the Russians are unable to reign in the regime by month end then would (under that hypothetical that I was empowered to do so)

...offer the people of Syria protection from the excesses of the regime.

Ask the people of Syria what help they need and then take it from there...

Yes, I know the US has a poor record of dealing with Russia so other than giving them the first chance of exerting their influence one would bypass them on this and in so doing realise that solving this matter through the UNSC will not be possible (through Russian veto).

The options are complex for the US given their current foreign policy weakness so one would probably be wise to look towards the EU to start the ball rolling.

[JMA]

Why that would worry the Russians is another question altogether: I'd guess they'd be perfectly happy to see the US taking on yet another messy intervention in the Middle East. I think they'd say "go for it", while laughing their backsides off.

Not sure the Russians would. If the US and the EU handled Syria even slightly better than they did with Libya they could position themselves on the side of the people and their liberation from oppression and make sure Russia/China etc are seen to be on the side of the regime.

But sadly we are likely to see a cautious, hesitant, dithering approach again where leadership from the US will again be found wanting.

[Entropy]

JMA,

Why would Russia take such a threat seriously? What makes you think the Syrian people want the "help" of the USA? Also, what makes you think Russia has the required influence with Syria? For Syria this is a matter of regime survival and "pressure" from outside governments isn't going to have much effect.

This is all academic of course since the American people won't support yet another major military intervention in yet another middle-east country.