Opinion: The killings of opposition groups – men, women and children – by the minority Syrian regime must stop.
Fact: Then we have Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey who stand to get scolded if Syria burns.
Fact: A new Sunni Arab government in Syria will change the balance in the Middle East significantly.
Fact: There are many vested interests in maintaining the status quo in Syria.
Fact: The insurrection in Syria has been bubbling for more than a year with increased intensity over the recent months.
Opinion: The longer the insurrection lasts and the more violent it becomes the more difficult it will be to impose a peaceful settlement in Syria.
Opinion: If the Alawites lose power they will become a persecuted minority (and also on the receiving end of some serious payback). Will they submit to democratic elections willingly? No.
Opinion: The Alawites should therefore be removed from power by the quickest means as this will end the current killing and also reduce future payback effected on the Alawites.
Opinion: The more weapons that find their way into the hands of the opposition groups the more difficult it will be to bring an effective cease fire into effect. Hence my opinion that opposition groups should not be armed and the urgent need to bring the Assad regime to heel.
So where to apply the pressure?
Opinion: On Assad’s inner circle and the military units involved in the mass atrocities.
Who should do this?
Opinion: Anyone other than the US … or US assets placed under direct French or Brit military command.
Anyone other than the US able to do this?
Opinion: No. Military intervention is therefore unlikely as the Germans and the Dutch have already surrendered (no doubt with more to follow).
Why should the US not lead the intervention?
Opinion: Because (based on their track record) they will cock it up.
Where to from here?
Opinion: wait and see.
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