Once again, Kilcullen is half right and too threat centric in his thinking (yes, being "population centric to defeat the threat is still a form of being threat centric).

Any sane assessment clearly indicates we are worse of than when we started. So no arguments there. But when one's tactics fail to yield the strategic results one hopes for, it is not a failure of threat analysis, it is a failure of problem analysis.

In so many ways, the threats we have pursued have certainly been problematic, but they have more importantly been just dangerous symptoms of the deeper problems in the growing rifts between a wide range of population groups and the systems of governance that affect their lives.

We need to re-think the problem. Thinking about it in tactical threat centric terms has led to equally tactical threat-based successes. These types of successes tend to only last so long as energy is applied to hold them in some static state, and then roar back larger than ever due to the actual problem having been made worse through the effort.