The David Kilcullen Collection (merged thread)

[Fabius Maximus]

"28 articles" was written for a Coalition Company Commander just warned for deployment in Iraq or Afghanistan. With admirable clarity, at the opening he defines his subject.

(Counterinsurgency) is a competition with the insurgent for the right and the ability to win the hearts, minds and acquiescence of the population.

Right from the start … guaranteed failure. This definition is true when fighting a domestic insurgency, or if we are seeking to create or maintain a colony. Neither is true – yet – for America. Certainly not in Iraq.

The Iraq government must win the hearts and minds of its people for the Iraq State. A US company commander can only help, as a secondary player in this game.

[Fabius Maximus]

The number of votes for "brilliant, useful" suggests that America is doomed. I recommend that we all get dual citizenship with some refuge nation, perhaps an isolated communist State up in the hills. Like Albania, or Berkeley.

Perhaps more evidence will help....

Kilcullen then gives 28 steps to victory. Let's start at the top.

1. Know your turf.

Know the people, the topography, economy, history, religion and culture. Know every village, road, field, population group, tribal leader and ancient grievance. Your task is to become the world expert on your district.

At this point a savvy Captain might toss this in the trash.

This advice is either banal (“know your turf”) or impossible.

The world expert on “your” district already lives there. What Kilcullen describes is called the home court advantage – and they have it, not us. US company commanders on a six to twelve month rotations cannot develop anything remotely like this knowledge about so foreign a place.

It might not be possible for then to do so in Watts or Harlem.

This does however, show the power of Kilcullen's work.

First, Kilcullen has written a useful field manual. Unfortunately, it works only for insurgents -- not us. See #1 above.

Second, he (unknowingly) shows why overseas expeditions do not work in a 4GW world. The "home court advantage" has the advantage when (like now) defensive strategies are dominant.

[Fabius Maximus]

As usual with the US military, deus ex machina saves the day!

... a “ruggedized” laptop computer, loaded with data from social-science research conducted in Iraq — such as, McFate said, “an analysis of the eighty-eight tribes and subtribes in a particular province.” Now the project is recruiting social scientists around the country to join five-person “human terrain” teams that would go to Iraq and Afghanistan with combat brigades and serve as cultural advisers on six-to-nine-month tours.

Since there are so few Arabic-speaking, Iraq-expert social scientists in the US (even fewer for Afghanistan), the data for these laptops’ will mostly come from the locals. That is, our maps of the social terrain will be that of various partisans in the Iraq civil war. (there are no neutrals in a civil war)

It's a high-tech way of making their enemies, our enemies.

Good idea, just the wrong time and place.

Also this illustrates our confusion between "data" and "knowledge." Even if the data is correct, most of our company commanders will lack the contextual understanding -- the wider view of Iraq/Afghanistan society -- needed to successfully apply it.

[slapout9]

Fabius, I take you don't believe much in Kilcullen? Who would you recommend?

[Fabius Maximus]

The usual suspects ... Lind, Richards, van Creveld ... and the other folks you see published on www.d-n-i.net

Unfortunately we are in the early stages of developing strategies effective in the age of 4GW. Early days yet. Yet the wealth of writing of the subject, from both in and outside the services, suggests that we'll have results eventually.

Implementing them might be a more difficult problem. I consider this the critical step, about which I've seen nothing of interest. Perhaps we must learn to wage 4GW on our own military institutions.

The sage who I believe has produced the first keys to winning 4GW is MAJ Don Vandergriff (The Path to Victory). In the end, our people are our greatest strength. Nothing is more important than getting the right system to attract, retain, and promote in the armed services.

Among my articles, the most operational is, I believe:

"Militia: the dominant defensive force in 21st Century 4GW?"
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/fabius_..._militia-1.pdf

[slapout9]

Fabius, that's some article. I am not sure about Militias for some of the reasons you mentioned. One thing I do agree with is the defense is vastly underestimated. One of the hardest things I had to learn as a Cop was how to make the criminal come to you! It sounds so odd but it is an enormous advantage when you set up sting operations,or undercover operations and they catch far more criminals then just riding around in a marked patrol car. I will have to pay more attention to the DNI page.

[Fabius Maximus]

The below link goes to a favorable mention of "Counterinsurgency Redux" by T. X. Hammes. Hammes is on the A-team of 4GW experts. His opinion deserves attention.

http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-i...-guerrilla-war

[azl]

its better to create assets within these tribes and social groups. that would better provide access and open coomunication lines with them. paving the way for a better understanding of their needs and helping in determining where and who the enemy actually is

[davidbfpo]

David Kilcullen has a new book out, so is on tour promoting it - with at least two London events. The book is 'Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla', a Tweet via SWJ alerted me to some reviews on:http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1...-the-mountains

More reviews on:http://www.amazon.com/Out-Mountains-...rban+Guerrilla

I plan to attend one London book launch, so may offer my own opinion.

[Red Rat]

I'd be interested in attending an event as well. perhaps there is scope for a Kitakidogo style SWJ gathering in London?

Dr Kilcullen's background in anthropology is for me what makes his work so interesting.

[davidbfpo]

David Kilcullen is speaking tomorrow to the Henry Jackson Society, in Portcullis House (Parliamentary office block) and on Friday, at RUSI in Whitehall: http://www.rusi.org/events/ref:E52148194AD534/

Neither is a public event.