The David Kilcullen Collection (merged thread)

[Fabius Maximus]

The number of votes for "brilliant, useful" suggests that America is doomed. I recommend that we all get dual citizenship with some refuge nation, perhaps an isolated communist State up in the hills. Like Albania, or Berkeley.

Perhaps more evidence will help....

Kilcullen then gives 28 steps to victory. Let's start at the top.

1. Know your turf.

Know the people, the topography, economy, history, religion and culture. Know every village, road, field, population group, tribal leader and ancient grievance. Your task is to become the world expert on your district.

At this point a savvy Captain might toss this in the trash.

This advice is either banal (“know your turf”) or impossible.

The world expert on “your” district already lives there. What Kilcullen describes is called the home court advantage – and they have it, not us. US company commanders on a six to twelve month rotations cannot develop anything remotely like this knowledge about so foreign a place.

It might not be possible for then to do so in Watts or Harlem.

This does however, show the power of Kilcullen's work.

First, Kilcullen has written a useful field manual. Unfortunately, it works only for insurgents -- not us. See #1 above.

Second, he (unknowingly) shows why overseas expeditions do not work in a 4GW world. The "home court advantage" has the advantage when (like now) defensive strategies are dominant.

[Fabius Maximus]

As usual with the US military, deus ex machina saves the day!

... a “ruggedized” laptop computer, loaded with data from social-science research conducted in Iraq — such as, McFate said, “an analysis of the eighty-eight tribes and subtribes in a particular province.” Now the project is recruiting social scientists around the country to join five-person “human terrain” teams that would go to Iraq and Afghanistan with combat brigades and serve as cultural advisers on six-to-nine-month tours.

Since there are so few Arabic-speaking, Iraq-expert social scientists in the US (even fewer for Afghanistan), the data for these laptops’ will mostly come from the locals. That is, our maps of the social terrain will be that of various partisans in the Iraq civil war. (there are no neutrals in a civil war)

It's a high-tech way of making their enemies, our enemies.

Good idea, just the wrong time and place.

Also this illustrates our confusion between "data" and "knowledge." Even if the data is correct, most of our company commanders will lack the contextual understanding -- the wider view of Iraq/Afghanistan society -- needed to successfully apply it.

[slapout9]

Fabius, I take you don't believe much in Kilcullen? Who would you recommend?

[Fabius Maximus]

The usual suspects ... Lind, Richards, van Creveld ... and the other folks you see published on www.d-n-i.net

Unfortunately we are in the early stages of developing strategies effective in the age of 4GW. Early days yet. Yet the wealth of writing of the subject, from both in and outside the services, suggests that we'll have results eventually.

Implementing them might be a more difficult problem. I consider this the critical step, about which I've seen nothing of interest. Perhaps we must learn to wage 4GW on our own military institutions.

The sage who I believe has produced the first keys to winning 4GW is MAJ Don Vandergriff (The Path to Victory). In the end, our people are our greatest strength. Nothing is more important than getting the right system to attract, retain, and promote in the armed services.

Among my articles, the most operational is, I believe:

"Militia: the dominant defensive force in 21st Century 4GW?"
http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/fabius_..._militia-1.pdf

[slapout9]

Fabius, that's some article. I am not sure about Militias for some of the reasons you mentioned. One thing I do agree with is the defense is vastly underestimated. One of the hardest things I had to learn as a Cop was how to make the criminal come to you! It sounds so odd but it is an enormous advantage when you set up sting operations,or undercover operations and they catch far more criminals then just riding around in a marked patrol car. I will have to pay more attention to the DNI page.

[Fabius Maximus]

The below link goes to a favorable mention of "Counterinsurgency Redux" by T. X. Hammes. Hammes is on the A-team of 4GW experts. His opinion deserves attention.

http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-i...-guerrilla-war

[slapout9]

Fabius, I like TX Hammes and try to read his articles, have not read his book yet, but I will. The last article I read of his was in Military Review (I think) about doing network analysis in order to make the enemy visible. Law Enforcement has been doing this for years since criminals don't walk around with a sign on their head that says Criminal. Glad he is on our side.

[carl]

I am a bit surprised at the sharp tone of FM's criticism. Most of Mr. Kilcullen's statements seem to be plain common sense well put. The crux of FM's complaint seems to be that something less than perfect is useless.

1.

In his little area, the Company Commander is indeed in a competition as stated by Mr. Kilcullen. And, as as been demonstrated in Vietnam, Malaya and Iraq, it is possible to win that competition in his small area of responsibility.

Of course, the government of Iraq will be the entity that ultimately wins the war in the country as a whole. The Captain "can only help, as a secondary player in this game." But that secondary role can be a vital one.

2.

The Captain might well never know the turf as well as the guy who was born and lives there. But FM seems to imply that because he will never equal that knowledge the advice is meritless; if perfection can't be achieved, why bother trying for good enough.

It seems to me that the advantages the Captain brings, around 100 well trained and organized soldiers, good communications, superior fighting power, good transport, reliable supply, money to spend (hopefully) can make what less than perfect knowledge he can, through hard work, acquire, good enough to win a local victory.

[azl]

its better to create assets within these tribes and social groups. that would better provide access and open coomunication lines with them. paving the way for a better understanding of their needs and helping in determining where and who the enemy actually is

[davidbfpo]

David Kilcullen has a new book out, so is on tour promoting it - with at least two London events. The book is 'Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla', a Tweet via SWJ alerted me to some reviews on:http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1...-the-mountains

More reviews on:http://www.amazon.com/Out-Mountains-...rban+Guerrilla

I plan to attend one London book launch, so may offer my own opinion.

[Red Rat]

I'd be interested in attending an event as well. perhaps there is scope for a Kitakidogo style SWJ gathering in London?

Dr Kilcullen's background in anthropology is for me what makes his work so interesting.

[davidbfpo]

David Kilcullen is speaking tomorrow to the Henry Jackson Society, in Portcullis House (Parliamentary office block) and on Friday, at RUSI in Whitehall: http://www.rusi.org/events/ref:E52148194AD534/

Neither is a public event.

[davidbfpo]

David Kilcullen, now bearded, gave an impressive explanation of his book and answered about ten questions today to a small group of interested persons - including Prince Harry.

Yes the book is aimed at a military audience, but he readily admitted he was not advocating intervention to solve emerging problems (population growth, urbanization, concentration in coastal areas and the connectivity provided by cell / mobile phones and web access).

The paradigms we have are wrong, they simply do not fit the data.

Water supply was one issue and he cited Syria as an example. Syria, with an expanding population for several years had issues over water supply, so much that water rationing applied in most cities. This was aggravated in 2010 with a drought in the south-east, which pushed more people into the cities and in 2011 two of those cities were where the protests began.

Anyway more after the book arrives and it is read fully.

For UK / European readers the book is available from the publishers; if you register with them you may get a 20% discount:http://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/...the-mountains/