RUSI have now released David Kilcullen's short talk earlier this month (17 mins):https://rusi.org/event/blood-year-is...res-war-terror

From the RUSI intro:
In his lecture, Dr Kilcullen gave an unsparingly honest, self-critical analysis of the collapse of western counterterrorism strategy and the subsequent rise of Islamic State.
Dr Kilcullen contends that the strategy he helped design has failed, and that it has not made us safer and has contributed to new threats, including Islamic State. The most startling part of his analysis is that there may be worse dangers than ISIS incubating in various parts of the world.