This is very much political for the Sunni Arabs is Syria and Iraq - that is the primary energy source that defines this conflict. Sunnis and Shia from around the globe for their own reasons - mostly, I suspect, to help shape the broader Sunni/Shia competition this political conflict takes place within. ISIL? They saw a parade that no one else either could lead or dared to try. They have created and now lead a de facto state. This makes them both more successful and more vulnerable than AQ at once and for the same reasons.

So yes, my model is simple, but it is not simplistic like the models applied by so many "experts" who see ISIL as being no different than AQ; and who don't appreciate that a tangible physical state makes ISIlL weaker and more vulnerable, not stronger.

Solve the Sunni governance problem first, and the rest will fall into a manageable place. Ignore the governance problem, and get ready for the very similar Kurdish situation in Turkey to go hot next. An avoidable tragedy that we are nudging toward the brink...