Siachin Confict

[Ray]

INDIA : GOVERNMENT SET TO REPEAT STRATEGIC BLUNDER OF AKSAI CHIN IN SIACHEN?

by Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Background

In this author’s book “ India ’s Defence Policies and Strategic Thought. A Comparative Analysis.” .former President Nixon of the United States was quoted to highlight how India had in its policies been indifferent to adhering to the balance of power concept and how India was inclined to marginalize its far flung peripheries.

“The pages of history are littered with the ruins of countries that were indifferent to erosion of the balance of power. Losses on the periphery where a country’s interests appear marginal, never seem to merit a response or warrant a confrontation with the enemy. But small losses add up. Expansionist powers thrive on picking up loose geopolitical change. When it comes, it usually takes place under the worst possible circumstances for those on the defensive.”

Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, oblivious to the crucial strategic significance of Aksai Chin (North Ladakh) gifted it away to China. India rues till today this Himalayan blunder in strategic terms. Nehru hid the fact of the Chinese annexation of Indian territory for nearly eight years. He later justified the loss by terming Aksai Chin as a desolate area where not a blade of grass grew.

Half a century later, not learning from the Aksai Chin strategic blunder, the present government seems set to repeat history. Going by the utterances of his National Security Adviser, India seems set to gift away Siachen to Pakistan on the plea that the Prime Minister wants to make the area as “mountains of peace.”

Today, Siachen too is being strategically marginalized and compromised again for political reasons. At issue is whether Indian Prime Minister can marginalize strategic peripheries for political gains or mileage?

Siachen, like Aksai-chin is not Indian “loose geo-strategic change” which any Indian Prime Minister can put in a political juke-box.

The strange thing about the Siachen debate, currently underway, is that the Indian Army has not requested or advised that it cannot continue with the commitments of Siachen Sector defence. The debate emerged in the media, it seems with inspired inputs from the establishment, that the defence of Siachen is a costly affair and hence needs demilitarization. That this inspired reporting has linkages with the Prime Minister's visit to Pakistan cannot be denied; the strategic costs are immaterial.
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5C...paper1778.html

Given the current international geostrategic environment and alignments, what could be the solution?

Further, would it be another strategic blunder for India like Aksai Chin and Tibet?

[blueblood]

The Siachen Conflict, sometimes referred to as the Siachen War, is a military conflict between India and Pakistan over the disputed Siachen Glacier region in Kashmir. The conflict began in 1984 with India's successful Operation Meghdoot during which it wrested control of the Siachen Glacier from Pakistan and forced the Pakistanis to retreat west of the Saltoro Ridge. India has established control over all of the 70 kilometres (43 mi) long Siachen Glacier and all of its tributary glaciers, as well as the three main passes of the Saltoro Ridge immediately west of the glacier—Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La. Pakistan controls the glacial valleys immediately west of the Saltoro Ridge.[2][3] According to TIME magazine, India gained more than 1,000 square miles (3,000 km2) of territory because of its military operations in Siachen.[4]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_conflict

http://outsideonline.com/outside/fea...siachen_1.html

http://www.time.com/time/asia/covers...11/story3.html

[davidbfpo]

The Siachen conflict certainly fits a 'Small War' label, although I find it hard to think of anywhere so inhospitable to contemporary human settlement, let alone a war and I've been in the Dolomites where in WW1 there was a gruelling, bloody conflict.

Thankfully there has been a ceasefire since 2005 (from Wikipedia), although a political settlement is far off I would say. I do recall newsreel from each side beforehand making an occasional appearance here, invariably of artillery duels.

It is only when you read up on India's military position and appreciate the geography along its northern borders why it is so sensitive to what happens. The IISS Military Balance shows numerous specialist para-military forces and ten mountain infantry divisions.

Now we tend to forget the shock to India when China (PRC) in 1962 launched an offensive and the response by others - the UK considered offering a nuclear "umbrella" to India. Background reading on conflict:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War

[Ray]

Actually, India did not wrest the Siachen.

It was unoccupied.

Pakistan Govt was granting passes for Mountaineering Expeditions in this area and thus defacto attempting to establish that this area was under Pakistan, which was a incorrect premise of Pakistan.

The then Army Commander, Northern Command, after getting Govt permission, ordered occupation of the Siachen Glacier with 5 KUAMAON.



There is an opinion that is bandied that The Siachen Glacier has no significant strategic value.

The map would indicate that there is. More so, these days where Pakistan has ceded the Shaksgam Valley.

Shaksgam Valley is bounded by the Kun Lun Mountains to the north, and by the Karakoram peaks to the south, including Broad Peak, K2 and Gasherbrum. On the southeast it is adjacent to the highest battlefield in the world in the Siachen Glacier region.

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Shaksgam.png

It is worth considering as to why China wanted Shaksgam Valley and why Pakistan ceded it from all points of view, including strategic.

If India had not held Siachen, it would have been a free run for both Pakistan or China or both in collusion to roll down to Leh.

Presently India holds all of the glacier and commands the top of all three passes. Pakistan formerly controled Gyong La at 35-10-29N 77-04-15E that overlooks the Gyong (tributary of the Shyok) and Nubra River Vallies and India's access to Leh District.

The Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh's idea of making Siachen a 'zone of peace' and withdraw troops is misplaced, unless it follows the principle, 'peace at all costs'.

That this idea of Siachen being a 'zone of peace' is flawed and dangerous is because once the Indian troops are withdrawn to Leh, the three stage acclimatisation will be essential if the Siachen has to be reoccupied in case Pakistan rushes in to occupy. And Pakistan is known to renegade with impunity all treaties and understandings (the latest being Osama not being in Pakistan). It maybe known access from the Pakistani side is relatively easier.

There is also no guarantee that Siachen is not ceded by Pakistan to China to make a continuous landmass from Chinese Occupied Aksai Chin to the Shaksgam Valley and then virtually opening up Leh and beyond.

[Ray]

Is the Pakistan Army brave enough to make peace?

Sometime in the early morning hours of April 7th, a massive avalanche completely wiped out the Pakistan Army’s battalion headquarters (BHQ) at Ghyari......

However despite all this, the route to India’s positions in the middle of the Saltoro range is much more tortured than its Pakistani counterpart and it costs far more in terms of lives and money – that is until April 7th 2012. With Ghyari gone, the Pakistani logistical advantage in the middle of the Saltoro range is gone.

The most critical supply commodity is of course, kerosene. Without kerosene the soldiers will not have water to drink, heat to cook food and keep themselves warm. In normal circumstances, without water, food and warmth, morale collapses and the mental strength of the soldiers fails. As if that is not enough at such low temperatures, metal tends to contract, and lubricants tend to become ineffective. Even high quality weapons unless heated on a kerosene stove become cold-locked – their metal parts shrunk into dimensions beyond the tolerances laid out by the manufacturers. If you have an artillery piece on the glaciers, you have to heat it with a kerosene stove and fire it a few times regularly just to make sure it stays operational.....

If the Indian Army was feeling particularly bloody minded, it would simply start shelling the Pakistani positions at this time. The smarter Pakistanis on the ridge line would surrender or abandon their posts. The stupider ones would attempt to return fire on India’s positions and exhaust what little fuel there remains at their disposal – and then die of thirst, hunger and frost bite. As the actual ground position line (AGPL) has never been officially demarcated, the IAF would be within its rights to launch air raids across it. These acts by the Indian Army would force the Pakistani Army into a very public surrender. After the Abbotabad raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, the Pakistani Army’s position in Pakistani society is quite precarious. Another public failure like this and the Pakistan Army would be torn to shreds by its Jihadis and ultra-nationalistic chums.....

Then there is the harder path, the braver path – chosen by Sri Manmohan Singh himself. Despite all the insults that the Pakistan Army has heaped on him – despite the fact that COAS Ashfaq Pervez Kayani ignored Sri.Singh’s request to send the head of the ISI to New Delhi after the 26/11 attacks – Sri. Singh has found a Buddha like grace in his heart and offered the Pakistani Army an olive branch. A lesser man than him would have simply asked the boys on the glacier to start the music and had the Bofors belch fire on Pakistani positions – but Sri. Singh has offered to help Pakistan cope with the Ghyari situation. India has the HAA reserves and the Cheetah helicopters that Pakistan vitally needs to keep its army men on the ridge from dying. This is an act of immense compassion that can only come from someone steeped in the deepest traditions of Dharma. Only one sufficiently brave to see an adversary as a human being is capable of such an act of kindness. This offer underscores India’s commitment to peace in the region and beyond.

Will the Pakistani Army be brave enough to accept his offer?

http://broadmind.nationalinterest.in...to-make-peace/

[Ray]

Not about Siachen

Before the euphoria for demilitarization of Siachen grips the country with visions of a peace prize and another ‘landmark’ agreement before the next general elections in 2014 eggs us to draw another foolish line on the map, there is need for serious strategic introspection – ‘paid’ media hollering to ignore military advice notwithstanding. Major fallouts of hurried demilitarization of Siachen are as under:

• Widening the China-Pakistan handshake (collusive threat) to include Gilgit-Baltistan (reportedly being leased out by Pakistan to China for 50 years), Shaksgam Valley (already ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963), Saltoro-Siachen region (that Pakistan may reoccupy through “Kashmiri Freedom Fighters” or cede to China), own Sub Sector North (SSN) east of Siachen with Chinese sitting on the northern slopes of the Karakoram Pass if not on top of it already, and Aksai Chin already under Chinese occupation.

• SSN and Eastern Ladakh will become focused objectives of Chinese strategic acupuncture. Defence potential of SSN will be totally degraded with western flank exposed and KK Pass to north, which India stopped patrolling years back for fear of annoying the dragon. We continue to remain thin in Eastern Ladakh against Chinese threat via Aksai Chin – heightened more now with possibility of two front war.

• Our next line of defence will perforce base on Ladakh Range with possibility of Leh coming within enemy artillery range.

• Ladakh and Zanskar Ranges will be targeted for terrorism by ISI nurtured groups while Pakistan will say they are ‘out of control’. ISI has been nurturing Shia terrorist outfits with an eye on Ladakh since late 1990s.

http://www.claws.in/index.php?action...=1119&u_id=183