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Thread: Bin Laden: after Abbottabad (merged thread)

  1. #81
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    I would add that the calculation can change. If ISI is clearly AGAINST jihadism, then the whole calculation is dramatically different.

  2. #82
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    Default Interview with Hamid Gul

    Just got that piece from the Worldsecuritynetwork. An interview with Hamid Gul, former director of the ISI. Well, I think that says enough about the attitude towards Afghanistan.....

    http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/...557&topicID=77

  3. #83
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    I assume some people here can read Urdu. These are just two random op-eds from very very prominent rightwing personalities in Pakistan and reflect a strange mix of ignorance, despair and bravado:

    http://express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwi...&Date=20110504

    http://express.com.pk/epaper/PoPupwi...&Date=20110504

    abdul qadir hassan (the first column) is probably the senior most (and one of the most respected) Urdu columnists in Pakistan. He weeps for Osama Shaheed and asks when we will see more Osamas and fewer prime ministers who celebrate his death?

    Orya Maqbool Jan, the second columnist, is a serving senior civil servant and likes to think of himself as an intellectual mentor to the patriotic Pakistanis of tomorrow. His piece is untranslatable but includes the belief that the world trade center was not brought down by Osama and that his killing is also fake. The assumption is that all this is part of some orchestrated plot to attack Pakistan, as predicted in the book of Daniel in the Bible. I am not kidding.

  4. #84
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    So now the only evidence that exists that can shed any light on this operation--other that taking the national security team's word for it--the photo, will not be released because of Muslin sensibilities (and yet the conspiracy theories are supposedly coming out of Muslim countries).

    Let's recap then. No body. It had to be dumped at sea within 24 hours or it would offend Muslin sensibilities, even though it seem that many Muslim's do not hold this belief. The only evidence we have is facial recognition, which we will never see, DNA test results, which we will never see, the picture of a dead bin Laden, which we will never see, and the testimony of a supposed 'special warfare development group', who will never be revealed.

    I am not an avid conspiracy theorist, but those who are (along with many people who are just plain skeptical) say that bin Laden has been dead since 2002. They very well could have been wrong.

    What possible reason would the Obama administration have for this story at this moment in time.

    As already pointed out, people seem to be under the impression that this ends the war in Afghanistan and we can be done with it. That would give the decision makers the justification to begin to draw down troops which would lead to a smaller 'footprint' in Afghanistan and the general feeling of having won the war with an exit on the very near horizon by say the summer of 2012 (nb that date) instead of 2014. I can't imagine a better platform for re-election amidst a horrible economy than the one platform that usually trumps the economy. The economy can take the back seat to fact that the mission has supposedly been accomplished in Afghanistan, the troops are coming home and America is safer...big sigh of relief.

    Like I said, I am not a conspiracy theorist. My biggest problem with conspiracies is the same as everyone else's: it doesn't take many moving parts for it to fall apart. the more people involved the greater chance of there being a dissenter. Even if this conspiracy theory was true and the only people who were in on it were the President's national security team, I don't for a minute believe that Clinton would comply with a plan that would make Obama more electable in 2012. The only way that I could imagine that would be to invoke terms like 'New World Order' and 'Illuminati' and such. While I less than incredulous of those terms than some, it might lead people to believe that I hold beliefs things that I don't. So why don't we all just forget I just typed this message.

  5. #85
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default The Compound factor Part 7

    I don't recall seeing this and just found it on the BBC's running log:
    1056: A crucial clue that led the US to Bin Laden was the moment his courier switched on his mobile phone outside the compound, says the BBC's Gordon Corera. "The courier was the key. First of all they had his 'nom de guerre', then they had to identify him, and then from a phonecall last year they tracked him to this particular compound. That led to the surveillance. But even when the US went in they weren't 100% sure Bin Laden was in there."
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

    In Post 35 I stated:
    ...with no electronic signature too..
    If the report is true (anyone else seen similar?) then the courier made a mistake. Which reinforces my view - to avoid capture, never use a mobile phone.
    davidbfpo

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    Default The Compound factor Part 8 (Ownership)

    In answer to the questions here about the land / house ownership the BBC running log has:
    1524: A doctor who sold a piece of the land in Abbottabad where Osama Bin Laden's compound was built has said the Pakistani buyer did not seem to be a militant. "He was a very simple, modest, humble type of man" who was "very interested" in buying the land for "an uncle", Dr Qazi Mahfooz Ul Haq told the Associated Press. Property records show Mohammad Arshad bought adjoining plots in four stages between 2004 and 2005 for $48,000. Neighbours said a man who called himself Arshad Khan was among those who lived there.
    Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    ...except that the U.S. embassy is in Islamabad's city map.
    If the ISI is really bad at its job, it might have been as simple as walking up to the American embassy and claiming the bounty. I don't see why it's reasonable to assume that the ISI is really bad at its job.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    In Post 35 I stated:

    If the report is true (anyone else seen similar?) then the courier made a mistake. Which reinforces my view - to avoid capture, never use a mobile phone.
    Hey David,
    According to our criminal police, the only way to preclude tracing a cell is by removing the battery. Switching it off does not "disconnect" it. But even just switching off leaves you with several hundred yards between relays (depending on the country you're in that distance could be far greater).

    The courier never attended Entropy's OPSEC course
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    If the ISI is really bad at its job, it might have been as simple as walking up to the American embassy and claiming the bounty. I don't see why it's reasonable to assume that the ISI is really bad at its job.
    Well, maybe I should not assume that others are like me, but thinking of ISI observation of foreign embassies, I would simply use bow & arrow to shoot a message in from 200+ m away, for example.

    I'm sure that you couldn't keep ME from contacting foreigners, even with the tools of the ISI.

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    I am such a softie that I am beginning to feel bad for GHQ. All their super-clever ideas have led them to the mother of all double-binds. Between a rock and a very very hard place. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
    The irony is that Kiyani is probably the smartest person to ever occupy that exalted chair in GHQ. Which is not saying much, this being the army in which a buffoon like Musharraf was thought to be smart. Kiyani (I think) has an inkling of where things stand, but has no idea how to tell his own officer corps the facts of life. The poor souls would go berserk. in fact, the biggest threat until the poor sods settle down mentally, will be the threat of an attempted coup by someone who has become completely deranged.

    And all those educated pakistanis who are dying to see Imran Khan become prime minister, what will happen to them? They have been taught by GHQ’s best and brightest psyops operators about how brilliant our army is and how great ISI is and now this. Its a massive Akki-Inoki* moment.

    *Akki-Inoki moment: in the mid-seventies, world wrestling champion Inoki came to Lahore for an exhibition match against the pride of Pakistan, Akram Pehelwan (aka Akki). The bout lasted 3 seconds, at which point Inoki pulled akram’s shoulder out and it was all over. For some of us, it was a great “teaching moment” to realize where we stood and what level the world was at…

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    I personally don't understand their reasoning for burying the body at sea. If they wanted to be sensitive to their customs then it would have been more appropriate to bury him in an unmarked grave. If you do that at an undisclosed location how could anyone create a shrine or pilgrimages? Besides that, doing so is sacrilegious for them anyway.

    I know some won't care, but part of the WOT is winning hearts and minds, so I believe the burial was an important factor.

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    Default I can't help myself!

    Quote Originally Posted by The Olive Sword View Post
    I personally don't understand their reasoning for burying the body at sea. If they wanted to be sensitive to their customs then it would have been more appropriate to bury him in an unmarked grave. If you do that at an undisclosed location how could anyone create a shrine or pilgrimages? Besides that, doing so is sacrilegious for them anyway.

    I know some won't care, but part of the WOT is winning hearts and minds, so I believe the burial was an important factor.
    OS... its not you, but I can't contain myself anymore...

    This is the same person who called for the killing of mil and civ americans where ever you find them... whose people cut off heads in the name of his organization and cause... is short I wish they had chummed the waters before they burried him... and while it is far outside of my character... I'm pissed that they went to any bother to prepare the body as if we should give a rip...

    By the way "hearts and minds" has nothing to do with getting them to like us... anyone who takes great offense at the handling of his body is unlikely to be swayed if we had... lost too many friends as a result of the events put into motion by this piece of pig fecal matter...
    Hacksaw
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    Hearts and minds are an important part of this struggle, but burial at sea and such small symbolic things have very little to do with winning or losing the struggle for hearts and minds. The whole notion of winning hearts and minds by being "sensitive" to the deranged feelings of childlike imaginary hordes of Muslims is silly. It would be much better to imagine what a struggle for hearts and minds would look like if the target audience is grown-up human beings. It would look very different. Those who are cooking up conspiracy theories or saying burial at sea is against Islam are not opposing the US because of burial at sea. They are opposing burial at sea because they oppose the US. Try to keep that in mind and things will become simpler.
    Some aspects (huge aspects) of the struggle for hearts and minds are unwinnable because they are not on the table (like support for Israeli occupation). But even there, an adult conversation would be healthier than thinking you will buy off the people with some schools (whose funds were mostly stolen by corrupt elites, whose teachers have never shown up for work, and whose buildings will soon be blown up anyway). Other aspects depend on making your expectations clearer and your motivations more transparent. There is actually less to be feared from the truth than the state dept seems to imagine. People understand that powers have interests and demands. They would prefer a straight answer to bull#### anyday.

  14. #94
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    Well, regarding the locals, I doubt they wanted to know. Possible results of knowing OBL is your next-door neighbor:

    1) OBL's buddies kill you to keep you quiet.
    2) The US blows up the whole compound and you're collateral damage.
    3) The US sends in a team to kill OBL in person, and you have to worry about catching a stray round.

    There's really no upside to knowing.
    Another possibility is implicit in this quote from a neighbor:

    "People were skeptical in this neighborhood about this place and these guys. They used to gossip, say they were smugglers or drug dealers," said farmer Mashood Khan, 45.
    Just because there's a suspicious house in the neighborhood doesn't mean the neighbors would automatically think of bin Laden... there are lots of other possibilities. In a country like Pakistan there's likely to also be a disinclination to do more than gossip, as any excessive curiosity might be unhealthy. In many ways the best security from prying neighbors would be to drop some remote hints that some notorious personality (legal, illegal, or both) was involved, which would satisfy the gossip mill and create a disincentive to further prying.

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    The easiest thing is to hint that the people living in said mystery house are vaguely connected to militancy and secret wars, but not on the ISI's ####-list. No one will give the place a second look and anyone who does so will be visited by some helpful captain and told what to say and do in the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    Well, maybe I should not assume that others are like me, but thinking of ISI observation of foreign embassies, I would simply use bow & arrow to shoot a message in from 200+ m away, for example.

    I'm sure that you couldn't keep ME from contacting foreigners, even with the tools of the ISI.
    I don't think you're counting the probability that the ISI (and probably AQ/LeT personnel) would be observing you, yourself, if you were one of those neighbors. If you're some random ninja who happens to stroll by the compound and catch a glimpse of OBL, sure you could probably get to the embassy without much problem. If you're a guy who lives in that neighborhood, you're a quantity that whoever planted OBL there has already factored into their overall strategy. I mean, they spent a million bucks building the compound; surely they also spent some time and money making sure they have controls and contingencies on the people who live near the compound.

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    Hardly. The compound was on open field early on. The city sprawled, the neighbours came later.

    I further think you overestimate the capabilities of a state like Pakistan. They would need to knock on all doors and search the houses to even know who's living there. There's no credit card system that would allow them to track you buying a train ticket to Islamabad or something.

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    Default Abbottabad not the FATA = Pak Army Collusion...

    Those who have been repeatedly warning about the Paks dangerous double games for years would feel vindicated except we can't believe our side is still trying to spin this to give the Paks a way to wiggle out from the enormous pile of cow dung they find themselves under.

    Look...its high time to WAKE the h--l up. Read my previous posts on this site.

    Wonder why the Pakistanis are sooooo quiet on this. THEY KNOW what's what. The Afghans do too. The only real demonstrations in support of UBL have been low level affairs in Multan (Punjab) and Quetta (TQC country). Not a peep anywhere else. Sure the Pak army/state may whip something up soon to change this glaring equation.

    Let's deal with the obvious: Pakistan doesn't have a military. Rather, the miliatry has a state. It is a POLICE state. It makes its business to know what is going on, especially in its cantonments and garrison towns. How do you think the retirees (including flag officers) in Bilal town would feel if the wool had been pulled over their fauji in uniform??? Aint gonna happen. Every building for miles around Kakul and Burn Hall (where their pampered kids attend boarding school), and especially ones with the kind of security features that UBL's overtly depicted would be closely investigated. Do you think the largest compound for miles with the nickname "Waziristan House" wouldn't be under scrutiny given the paranoid tendencies of the Paks???

    Those still smoking the serious stuff need to quit...those engaged in wishful thinking need to face the cold hard reality: the Pak babus and fauji have been playing us for years at great peril to our national security. Our problems emanating from that region would have been long solved if the Paks had not been allowed to literally get away with murder (of its neighboring states' citizens (India and Afghanistan) and its own).

    The Pushtuns in the FATA became the fall guys. Punjabis love it BTW. Don't believe the umma bull s--t. Another pile of dung that is....except in the West where they need each other due to low numbers.

    The TTP is complex and run by meglomaniacal fools but their original agenda is all about defending their homeland from the brutalities of the Pak army.

    BTW, remember Bugti in the wilds of Baluchistan and how they got to him?? Not to mention all the other assasinations. Oh and don't forget, KSM was also ensconced (comfortably) in the Pindi cantonment in the home of a Pak officer no less when he was captured.

    But ask yourselves an important question: why on earth would they give VIP treatment to UBL for years?? Answer is external. Remember the Paks are the ultimate whores yet they arrogantly act like they are our equals!! It is this very hubris that was (amen Seal Team Six) their undoing and will continue to be their undoing. They think they are the best, the smartest and that is the pompous basta--s undoing. Now must caveat all this and say that there certainly are individual officers of the old (British) school mold but they have been marginalized and you have the johnny come latelys from the mohallas like Kayani. All so democratic but you have to wonder about pedigree...this aint the West folks.
    Signing off: for the sake of pondering the "what if indeed..." as in UBL really built/funded this compound under the very noses of the army. Well then he had the biggest cojones on the block...no the region!The way he hid behind his woman's shalwar, however, suggests otherwise. He had ..... ones.
    Can't help thinking about the Egyptian MB # 2...always thought he was in Mohmand/Bajaur/Kunar country near his in-laws kin. But it is time to check out all the garrison towns and be prepared to use the Seals again.
    Wana88

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    The courier never attended Entropy's OPSEC course
    Hehe, I would make a bad terrorist since I'm completely addicted to my iphone.
    Supporting "time-limited, scope limited military actions" for 20 years.

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    Default Navy SEAL Dog Killed Osama

    Well maybe they didn't kill him but they were on the mission and they are not even eligible for any kind of award Link below.


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83-SZNnXPF0

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