Crowdsourcing on AQ and Analysis (new title)

[CWOT]

During the AQ Strategy 2011-2012 poll, voters were asked the following question:

Which AQ affiliate is most dedicated to attacking the ‘far enemy’ and least distracted with ‘near enemy’ battles?

296 respondents answered this survey question. Here are the results I found particularly interesting:

- The majority of voters found ‘AQ Central in AFPAK’ the most dedicated to attacking the U.S. and least distracted by ‘near enemy’ battles. I found this surprising considering the persistent drone attacks and other pressures present in AFPAK.

- ‘Media’ respondents (a small group of voters) selected AQAP in Yemen more than any other group. I was not surprised by this since the media appears obsessed with Awlaki.

-‘AQ in East Africa’ received the third highest vote count overall.

For charts and graphs breaking down voting groups, visit:
http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=314

As always, thanks to those that voted!

[CWOT]

The first question of the AQ Strategy Poll 2011-2012 asked 268 respondents the following question the week prior to Bin Laden’s death

Assuming 1) AQ’s Senior Leaders (UBL and Zawahiri) still have some directional authority over AQ affiliates and, 2) AQ is designing a strategy to survive and flourish based on recent events, what will be the primary focus of AQ’s strategy from the summer of 2011 through the end of 2012? (You can only pick one)

This goal of this question was to anticipate what al Qa’ida’s main effort would be through 2012. Reminder, respondents voted on this question the week prior to Bin Laden’s death.

Here are the findings I found most interesting:

-‘Attacks in Pakistan’ received the most votes followed closely behind by ‘Multiple attacks in the West’, ‘Strengthen AQAP in Yemen’ and ‘Repaint AQ’s role in the Arab Spring’. Overall, there was no strong preference for any one option.

-All professional groups voted in remarkably similar distributions across all responses. This is one of the only questions where groups did not significantly diverge in preference.

-‘Academic’ and ‘Government’ voters diverged in their preferences on almost all of the survey questions analyzed up to this point. However, in this question, ‘Academic’ and ‘Government’ voters were normally within 5% of each other for every response.

-‘Government’ respondents were the most likely group to pick ‘Strengthen AQAP in Yemen’. I wonder if all groups would pick this choice in larger numbers had the question been asked the week after Bin Laden’s death.

For Charts and Graphs see this link:
http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=391