Crowdsourcing on AQ and Analysis (new title)

[davidbfpo]

A detailed summary CWOT and finally you asked

What are some other dynamics to AQ donor support that I have overlooked?

At times you infer Gulf donors act as investors in the Global Jihad cause, via AQ Central. That is a good model to follow in part.

The AQ Central prospectus is quite clear: we are engaged in a relentless struggle, attempting to mount "spectacular" attacks - with allies / partners and have a long term strategy of antagonising our enemies into action.

Revenge IMHO is a particularly strong factor for those whose participation is only as an investor. All too often we forget terrorism is armed propaganda. AQ Central appear to have a more effective global PR appeal and infrastructure than the others.

AQAP gain much from the US focus and fear of them (that is another matter).

Donors appear to trust AQ Central, after all the relationship is far older and may date back to the 1980's. Once committed as donor how do you stop? Plus I would expect AQ Central has to endorse other groups before investments are made.

The scale of the donations is quite small and somewhere I recall reading a few years ago US$30m was the annual estimated amount AQ Central needed.

Finally fear of discovery for the donors by their own governments, who take action, not issue "coded warnings" and publicity. Given the apparent ease of making donations for many years without discovery and publicity I have a low expectation that donors are concerned with Western attention.

[CWOT]

I should probably parse out what donor support would consist of. I think there are a few different categories.

1- Money donated directly to AQ- this would, I imagine move through a hawala route directly to AQ financing POC. There's a fairly good discussion of this in the Ron Suskind book "The Way of the World" (I think, it could be the "one Percent Doctrine" can't remember)

2- Money given directly to Taliban tribes- Some of the donations go directly to Taliban tribes that provide protection for AQ and sustain the insurgency in Afghanistan. This has been going on since the 1980's and continues today. I'm trying to find the article but can't track it down. But there's a great quote where a Taliban leader in Pakistan says to the troops and some fellow commanders something to the sort of "Everyone needs to relax, things aren't that bad, you're still taking trips to Dubai"

3- Money pushed through the Madrassa system- Another route for donations is through the madrassa system; some of the money goes in through this route and gets spun off in different directions.

I think each one of these layers is essential to keeping AQ covered in Pakistan.

The scale of the donations is quite small and somewhere I recall reading a few years ago US$30m was the annual estimated amount AQ Central needed.

I don't know that I agree that $30M is small. And I think that is probably a decent estimate for that which AQ Central receives directly. But I think there is another large sum transferred to the TTP in Pakistan. I've seen estimates well into the $100's Millions to keep Taliban operations going. Only a portion of this would be from donors, but there is still several million.

Given the apparent ease of making donations for many years without discovery and publicity I have a low expectation that donors are concerned with Western attention.

You are right, I don't think they are worried about discovery either. I think their issue is more about 'Return on Investment', I imagine they'll keep donating, the question I'm more interested in is where will they donate, now that they have other options available?

[CWOT]

For those interested in this thread, here are some results from the poll I ran that are particularly relevant to AQ financing.

"
While poll results #1, #2, and #3 were all interesting in their own way, I believe the results of the AQ donor support question are the most interesting so far. Due to the fortunate timing of UBL's demise, I was able to run the same poll question the week prior and the week after UBL's death.

The first poll, AQ Strategy 2011-2012, initiated the crowdsourcing experiment on 27 April and 272 respondents tallied their votes for the following question:

Over the next two years, the largest portion of Gulf donor contributions to extremism will: (You can choose only one)

The second poll, Post UBL Poll, began on the morning of May 2nd and 132 respondents cast their votes to roughly the same question with the same response choices. (Many voters from the first poll also voted in the second poll)

After UBL's death, the largest portion of Gulf donor contributions to extremism will: (You can choose only one)

The before and after results from this question, I believe, illustrate Bin Laden's significance to AQ Central operations. It also suggests that UBL's death may significantly help AQAP's rise in Yemen.

Interesting results across the board. Here are a few that I picked out.

-Votes for "Shift to AQAP" increased dramatically after UBL's death.
-Votes for "Remain supporting AQ & Taliban in AFPAK" decreased sharply after UBL's death.
-10% of 'Academia' and 'Private Sector' voters moved away from "Shift to Islamist groups in North African uprisings".

In terms of volatility, 'Academia' had the highest volatility in their opinion before and after UBL's death. I found this particularly interesting as the 'Academia' crowd was the group most likely to select "Status Quo - No Significant Change" as the "Chief Consequence of UBL's death" in Poll Results #2. Based on their voting shift after UBL's death, I would have expected the 'Academia' group to have selected "AQ fundraising decreases" or "AQAP becomes new AQ Central".

For graphs, tables and additional analysis to what has been the most interesting poll result thus far, see

http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=290"

[CWOT]

Here is a related news story at al Jazeera english that I thought was particularly relevant.

Leaked cable: Gulf states 'funded extremism'
Leaked US diplomatic cable alleges Saudi Arabia and UAE sent $100m annually to radical Islamic schools in Pakistan.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...717683995.html

Here's a key quote:

Donors in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are estimated to have been sending up to $100 million annually to radical Islamic schools in Pakistan that back extremist groups, according to a leaked US diplomatic cable.

The cable alleged that financial aid for a "sophisticated jihadi recruitment network" was coming from "missionary" and "Islamic charitable" organisations in the Gulf, ostensibly with the direct support of the Saudi and UAE governments.