I think the following will occur to AQ.

There will be a significant power struggle as the agreed upon leadership transition process falters upon the will of others who don't know about it. (always an issue in a cell structure). This power struggle between new and old leadership will result in internal conflict that will be hard for us to see, and rampant exterior conflict with outsiders. The mitigating and maturing influence of Bin Laden (a taciturn and mature conservative) will be undone for some amount of time. He liked big splash low volume work for shock effect. Every youngster with a "plan" will move forward now that the calming/restraining influence has been lifted. In other words the wheels come off until the internal power struggle normalizes for AQ.

Hey like intelligence it is a guess.