Crowdsourcing on AQ and Analysis (new title)

[CWOT]

The first question asked during the Post UBL Poll was:

What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death?

The largest group of respondents believes Bin Laden’s death will create no significant change to AQ operations. However, large subsets of respondents believe that:

1- Zawahiri will take charge of AQ’s strategic leadership and direction
2- AQAP based in Yemen will become the new head of AQ globally

For graphs and tables showing the results of this question, see this link.

Thanks to all of you for voted!

[CWOT]

Again, thanks for voting on the Post UBL and AQ Strategy Polls the past few weeks.

Here are the latest results:

"Voters responded to two different polls pertaining to the question of AQ’s future leadership. (one the week before UBL’s death and one the week after UBL’s death)

From the Post UBL Poll. The question was:

Assuming that Usama Bin Laden can be replaced, which al Qaeda (AQ) member has the necessary attributes to become AQ’s global leader?

I found the following results from this question interesting:

'Government’ voters were the least likely of the larger groups to pick Zawahiri.

No voters from ‘Academia’ picked Sayf al-Adl

‘Private Sector’ respondents picked Awlaki at a higher rate than any other group.

Voters responded to a similar question the week prior to UBL’s death during the AQ Strategy Poll 2011-2012. Of 325 respondents to this poll, 302 voters responded to the following question.

Over the next five years, who will be the most influential ideologue for AQ’s strategic direction?

I’ll write more on this later in the week but here are some interesting points:

Prior to UBL’s death,

‘Government’ respondents believed Zawahiri would be the most influential over the next 5 years. However, in a poll right after UBL’s death, they selected Zawahiri as the next leader at much lower rates than other groups.

‘Academia’ thought Libi was as important over the next 5 years as Awlaki.

Again, ‘Private Sector’ respondents selected Awlaki at much higher rates than other groups.

For Charts and Graphs depicting the results of these questions, visit the following link:

http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=277

[CWOT]

While poll results #1, #2, and #3 were all interesting in their own way, I believe the results of the AQ donor support question are the most interesting so far. Due to the fortunate timing of UBL's demise, I was able to run the same poll question the week prior and the week after UBL's death.

The first poll, AQ Strategy 2011-2012, initiated the crowdsourcing experiment on 27 April and 272 respondents tallied their votes for the following question:

Over the next two years, the largest portion of Gulf donor contributions to extremism will: (You can choose only one)

The second poll, Post UBL Poll, began on the morning of May 2nd and 132 respondents cast their votes to roughly the same question with the same response choices. (Many voters from the first poll also voted in the second poll)

After UBL's death, the largest portion of Gulf donor contributions to extremism will: (You can choose only one)

The before and after results from this question, I believe, illustrate Bin Laden's significance to AQ Central operations. It also suggests that UBL's death may significantly help AQAP's rise in Yemen.

Interesting results across the board. Here are a few that I picked out.

-Votes for "Shift to AQAP" increased dramatically after UBL's death.
-Votes for "Remain supporting AQ & Taliban in AFPAK" decreased sharply after UBL's death.
-10% of 'Academia' and 'Private Sector' voters moved away from "Shift to Islamist groups in North African uprisings".

In terms of volatility, 'Academia' had the highest volatility in their opinion before and after UBL's death. I found this particularly interesting as the 'Academia' crowd was the group most likely to select "Status Quo - No Significant Change" as the "Chief Consequence of UBL's death" in Poll Results #2. Based on their voting shift after UBL's death, I would have expected the 'Academia' group to have selected "AQ fundraising decreases" or "AQAP becomes new AQ Central".

For graphs, tables and additional analysis to what has been the most interesting poll result thus far, see

http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=290

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The Post UBL Poll asked the following question during the week immediately following UBL’s death:

What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. and its Western allies?

140 respondents answered this question with surprisingly uniform distribution of votes across all professional categories and question responses.

-Most voters (44%) thought UBL’s death would result in no significant change in U.S. & NATO operations

-Many (36%) thought public pressure would force the withdrawal of Western partners from Afghanistan

-Few (20%) thought UBL’s death would shift the strategy from counterinsurgency (COIN) focus in Afghanistan to a regional counterterrorism (CT) focus in AFPAK.

Military voters were the only sub-group that thought somewhat differently than the overall crowd. Most military voters believe UBL’s death will lead to the exit of their NATO partners. (47% for Military compared to 37% for the crowd as a whole)

For graphs and additional analysis, see this link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=303

[CWOT]

This week’s poll results focus on AQ affiliates. Specifically, which AQ affiliate will lead AQ’s next chapter. I asked several questions in the AQ Strategy Poll and the Post UBL Poll addressing this issue. This week, I’ll release several results from the AQ Strategy Poll but will begin today with the results of the Post UBL Poll question:

With respect to UBL’s death, which AQ affiliate will be the primary node of AQ over the next 2 years?

133 respondents answered this question the week after UBL’s death revealing some interesting insights:

-More than half (50%) of all voters identified AQAP in Yemen as the key affiliate for AQ globally.

-‘Academia’ respondents selected “AQAP in Yemen” at a far higher rate than other professional groups and “AQ Central in AFPAK” at a far lower rate than other professional groups.

-‘Academia’ and ‘Government’ voters were less concerned by an emerging “AQ affiliate amongst North African uprisings” than ‘Students’ and ‘Private Sector’ voters.

For more analysis and charts, see the following link: http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=300