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  1. #1
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    Default Does Bin Laden Matter?

    So I've been blogging about whether Usama Bin Laden still matters to the global jihadi movement. Essentially, if UBL was captured or killed tomorrow, would it mattter? And, if it does matter, what would be the outcome?

    Here is a survey I posted and had some good participation on it, mostly from academics. I throw it up here as I'd like to get the perspective of those that have been deployed to AFG/IZ and other CT assignments. Here are the three questions I posted and would enjoy any and all thoughts on this topic.

    Here's the poll:

    Overall theme of the poll:
    If Usama Bin Laden were killed in 2011, would it matter to the global jihadi movement?

    Question #1:

    What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death to the global jihadi movement? (Only pick One!)

    -Status Quo- No substantial change in AQ activity
    -AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies decrease substantially
    -AQAP becomes new AQ Central
    -Some other AQ member in AF/PAK becomes leader of AQ Central
    -AQ Central loses its chief sponsor, the Haqqani network
    -AQ fundraising increases substantially
    -AQ fundraising diminishes substantially
    -Taliban more reluctant to make peace with Karzai
    -AQ-inspired recruitment slows substantially
    -AQ-inspired recruitment accelerates substantially
    -AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies increase substantially
    -Taliban pursue a peace settlement with Karzai
    -AQ Central shifts focus to pursue guerilla warfare in Central Asia


    Question #2:

    What will be the chief consequence of UBL’s death for the U.S. and its Western allies? (Only pick One!)

    Public pressure forces early withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan.
    Public pressure forces a refocus on counterterrorism operations (Biden Plan).
    Status Quo- No substantial change in U.S. and Western operations.


    Question #3:

    Would UBL’s death result in more or less AQ-inspired attacks over the next five years? (2011- 2016) (Only pick One!)

    -More
    -Less
    -No Change in the pace of attacks.


    Thanks,

    Clint
    www.selectedwisdom.com

  2. #2
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    A couple of thoughts:

    1. Killing senior leadership is a slow road to victory (Except in a case where some guy with legal power over people is forcing them to do things against their will. UBL's power is the power of the conditions he exploits, the power of his cause, and his supporters are all volunteers.) Killing him will not weaken the cause, but could make it stronger.

    2. Capturing him and attempting a civilian trial under US, or even international, standards would be an IO disaster for the west.

    3. He will be replaced. Take out UBL, and AQ gains a new leader who may actually be more effective than the current one. Take out AQ and a new organization will form that may well be more effective than AQ. Success lies in addressing the causes, and so long as the majority of senior leaders believe it is a mix of "malign actors" and "radical Islam" we will continue to chase our tails on this. (both of those are necessary aspects of how the causation is exploited, but are not causal in of themselves).

    4. Should we kill him? Definitely. Quietly, relentlessly pursue him and his core followers to the corners of the earth and terminate them where we find them. They have earned that. But that is a handful of guys, and should not be confused with the nationalist insurgents across the globe that respond to the UW efforts of AQ. But as to the causation they exploit, as to the conditions of insurgency in so many countries that they exploit, as to the sympathetic supporters in western communities that either empathize with the people in oppressed lands, or feel strongly that their government at home is an oppressor (or at least an enabler of oppressors); that will all still be in place, and that is the real problem that must be addressed, and killing UBL will have no positive effect on that. That will require an evolution of US foreign policy and will also require evolution of many domestic policies in the nations where this causation is the stongest as well.
    Robert C. Jones
    Intellectus Supra Scientia
    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  3. #3
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Of course it matters. He killed Americans and destroyed our property. Will it stop terrorist attacks no, but it will bear on the mind of future attackers that when we find you, you will be DRT(dead right there).

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    Of course it matters. He killed Americans and destroyed our property. Will it stop terrorist attacks no, but it will bear on the mind of future attackers that when we find you, you will be DRT(dead right there).
    I know 19 guys who wouldn't have given a damn.

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    I know 19 guys who wouldn't have given a damn.
    Yea,cause they are dead!

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    "wouldn't have given" referred to the time when they made their final decision.

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    1. Killing senior leadership is a slow road to victory (Except in a case where some guy with legal power over people is forcing them to do things against their will. UBL's power is the power of the conditions he exploits, the power of his cause, and his supporters are all volunteers.) Killing him will not weaken the cause, but could make it stronger.
    I agree in the case of a persistent COIN or CT campaign. I see it differently with UBL. His death would create an immediate shift in how the West chooses to counter AQ. He's a big symbolic target for the U.S. and one of the main justifications for being in Afghanistan. I don't think it would make AQ stronger either, but do think the result would be more attacks as followers compete to emerge the new leader.

    2. Capturing him and attempting a civilian trial under US, or even international, standards would be an IO disaster for the west.
    Agree, I sure hope they wouldn't take him alive.

    3. He will be replaced. Take out UBL, and AQ gains a new leader who may actually be more effective than the current one. Take out AQ and a new organization will form that may well be more effective than AQ.
    Really good point, I am curious how this will play out. I expect it will happen eventually, and maybe even soon.

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    Default Crowdsourcing AQ's Strategy 2011-2012

    I think the summer of 2011 through the end of 2012 will be the most important period for al Qaeda (AQ) and Western Counterterrorism (CT) efforts since 2002-2003.

    I've been working on analysis for what AQ might do over the next year and been examining crowdsourcing as an alternative for anticipating terrorist group strategies. I've been a huge fan of Small Wars over the past few years since I started writing short articles here and I really appreciate the feedback and insights I get from readers. I'm trying to figure out a way to use these feedback systems to narrow down on key terrorism questions. If I am certain of anything, it's that I alone will not be able to anticipate all of AQ's actions correctly. So I ask for your help! I'd truly like to capture the perspective of those that read and visit Small Wars.

    This week, I set up a crowdsourcing poll trying to answer the following question:
    “What will be al Qaeda’s strategy from the summer of 2011 through the end of 2012?”

    I set up a poll of 11 questions which I think will take less than 3 minutes to answer. If you can spare the time to vote, I would appreciate any and all insights.

    Here is the link to the poll:
    https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/selectedwisdomAQstrategy

    And if you think the poll is a worthwhile effort, please forward to any and all that might be interested. Crowdsourcing takes a crowd, so all are welcome.

    I'll hopefully start publishing the results in about ten days when I aggregate the data. And I'll make sure to post the results here as well. Goal is everyone gets the collective insights from the collective efforts of voters. Thanks in advance to those that take the time to vote and please let me know here if you think I can improve the survey/process in any way.

    BTW, nothing in it for me. No money, hidden agenda, etc. My wife calls my poll the "Household Chore Avoidance Project", which is probably true and thus worth the effort.

    Thanks.
    CWOT

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    SWC is an amazing thing. Had a great response rate over night. Thanks to those that contributed to the AQ Strategy poll.

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    Default Vote: What will terrorism be post Bin Laden?

    All,

    Thanks for your support on recent discussions with regards to Bin Laden.

    In light of today's events, I'm returning to the questions. I asked here back in January.

    What will be the consequences of Usama Bin Laden's death?

    I've launched an automated survey and would very much enjoy any and all opinions. Here is the link to the survey:

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/aqafterbinladen

    Thanks in advance for any and all responses and I will make sure to cross post the polling results here in about a week.

    RLTW,

    Clint

    Here's a preview of the first question on the poll:

    Overall theme of the poll:
    If Usama Bin Laden were killed in 2011, would it matter to the global jihadi movement?

    Question #1:

    What will be the chief consequence of Usama Bin Laden’s death to the global jihadi movement? (Only pick One!)

    -Status Quo- No substantial change in AQ activity
    -AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies decrease substantially
    -AQAP becomes new AQ Central
    -Some other AQ member in AF/PAK becomes leader of AQ Central
    -AQ Central loses its chief sponsor, the Haqqani network
    -AQ fundraising increases substantially
    -AQ fundraising diminishes substantially
    -Taliban more reluctant to make peace with Karzai
    -AQ-inspired recruitment slows substantially
    -AQ-inspired recruitment accelerates substantially
    -AQ Central directed plots against U.S. and its Allies increase substantially
    -Taliban pursue a peace settlement with Karzai
    -AQ Central shifts focus to pursue guerilla warfare in Central Asia
    Here's more background on the first version of this poll.

    Does Bin Laden Matter?
    By Clint Watts on January 2, 2011

  11. #11
    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    1. After Usama Bin Laden's death, what should be the primary focus of U.S. counterterrorism operations and policy?
    Goldman Sachs

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    Well played Bourbon!

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    i pwnd ur ooda loop selil's Avatar
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    I think the following will occur to AQ.

    There will be a significant power struggle as the agreed upon leadership transition process falters upon the will of others who don't know about it. (always an issue in a cell structure). This power struggle between new and old leadership will result in internal conflict that will be hard for us to see, and rampant exterior conflict with outsiders. The mitigating and maturing influence of Bin Laden (a taciturn and mature conservative) will be undone for some amount of time. He liked big splash low volume work for shock effect. Every youngster with a "plan" will move forward now that the calming/restraining influence has been lifted. In other words the wheels come off until the internal power struggle normalizes for AQ.

    Hey like intelligence it is a guess.
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    Every youngster with a "plan" will move forward now that the calming/restraining influence has been lifted. In other words the wheels come off until the internal power struggle normalizes for AQ
    Yes, in the immediate aftermath, chaos will breed some unfocused violence. My guess is there will be an initial spike in weak random attacks by wannabe's or affiliates trying to make their mark. But, unless AQAP can pull off a big attack in the next year or so, I think there will be a general decline over the next 2-5 years.

    I put a question in the last week's poll essentially asking, when will upstart terror groups cease to re-brand as AQ affiliates? I think this is when we will know we have won against AQ's social movement.

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    AQMI seems to be a good model to look to what will happen to AQ after UBL death as it's more or less an offshoot of the algerian islamist terror group after their defeat.

    This is just a personal opinion and guess.

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    What will terrorism be post Bin Laden?
    S.S.D.D.

    (Same Stuff Different Day)

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    Default Crowdsourcing on AQ and Analysis (new title)

    Immediately following 9/11/2001, hopes were high that Bin Laden and his gang would quickly be caught. In early 2002, Bin Laden escaped the Tora Bora cave network slipping into Pakistan beginning the longest, most expensive and most exhaustive man hunt in world history.

    In 2003, the Bin Laden mission lost focus; distracted by Iraq and the hunt for new villains. By 2004, the American public narrative changed and repeatedly stated that Bin Laden was hiding in a cave, sickened, weak, and irrelevant. By 2006-2007, this speculation was cemented into the minds of Western analysts, media pundits and the general public.

    Looking back, this narrative hindered my analysis and I imagine the analysis of many others seeking the demise of Bin Laden. Analysts were seeking to confirm a narrative constructed on two brief periods in Bin Laden's Afghan existence: a hiding period in the so-called "Lion's Den" during the mid-1980's and the 2002 Tora Bora siege. This narrative, derived from an appealing perceived pattern of Bin Laden's behavior, drove many to look for things that weren't there: guys in a cave, living on bread and water, coordinating through sophisticated electronic communication. Instead, he was killed in a compound similar to others he resided in, surrounded by family and communicating by courier.

    Resources were poured into detecting a pattern that suited our narrative more than the realities described throughout Bin Laden's life (See Patternicity for more on this). During the 1980's, he founded AQ in Peshawar guesthouses. In the 1990's, he occupied a Khartoum estate and later lived fairly openly in several different Afghan camps. This pattern of life, rather than the cave narrative we created, turned out to be consistent with where Bin Laden was discovered. His Khartoum residence looks strikingly similar to his Pakistani hideout. (See below)

    In hindsight, Bin Laden hid not in caves but within people-social networks of loyalty sealed by ideology, bought with Gulf donations and maneuvered through political brokering. Bin Laden lasted ten years because he leveraged his financial pull to sustain operations, his political value to engender Pakistani supporters, and his ideological credibility to garner protection from the Haqqani network. People hid Bin Laden, not caves.

    How was he identified and killed? Through the persistent work of dedicated analysts, investigators, military operatives and intelligence officers using human skills to turn interview results into a victory. In the end, it was pursuing good analysis on Bin Laden's human network, not adhering to narratives that brought mission completion.

    Thank you to those analysts, investigators and officers that fought so long and hard to bring Bin Laden's demise. And, thanks to Small Wars for providing such a great platform to assist in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency over the years; helping to move past narratives and onto real analysis.

    Clint Watts
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    Clint,

    Thanks for that commentary and the recommended TED talk.

    Whilst those questions may now be asked outside and inside government / intelligence agencies; was there any inside use of 'Red Teaming' and regular reviews of the fugitive hunt? From an outsider it appears not - until a politically-inspired direction.
    davidbfpo

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    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Like I said so long ago it would be his Family,Friends and Finances that would lead us to him and the best way to do that is "Boots on the ground,Eyes on the people, Mind on the mission."

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    I think there were probably considerable Red Teams and all sorts of analysis done. I am certain that some segments of the Intel Community never lost focus.

    In general though, I think the common political narratives thrown about in the media hampered how analysis was done; whether it be WMD in Iraq, Bin Laden in a Cave, or if you are in the U.S. the famous "DC Sniper might be in a White Box Truck". In these cases, narratives designed to give the populace comfort result in analysis being skewed to find that which has been declared rather than sticking to structured analytical approaches and hard data.

    I was just thinking about it last night, the perceptions placed in my mind and others and how that can really hinder long run objectives.

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