After the Bin Laden op, what is the impact? Not on terrorism. Merged thread

[Ray]

Moderator's Note: I have watched this thread 'The ISI' and 'After Obama What?' develop, wary that they were two halves of the question 'After the Bin Laden op, what is the impact?'. There's also another thread 'OBL's death & Terrorism's next move', which could be merged too, but for the moment will be left in place - for the impact on terrorism.

Apologies if some of the posts appear out of sequence.(Mod ends)


The following events have taken place in quick succession:

1. Imran Khan's whipping up of popular dissent against the Pak Govt and the Army for impotence displayed against US Drone attacks, being incapable to stand up to the US pressure and mortgaging Pakistan's governance to the US. The people under Imran Khan blockaded the US and ISAF supply route to Afghanistan through Pakistan for 02 days and gave an ultimatum to the Govt to take action within 30 days or they will march to Islamabad and bring the Govt down!

2. Consequent to the public unrest and protest, the US is said to be winding up its Drone operations from the Shamsi and other bases in Pakistan and move base to Afghanistan from where the originally used to operate.

3. The US killed Osama bin Laden in Abbotabad, Pakistan. Pakistan is said to have been kept in the dark about the operations, possibly because the US believes that the Army and the ISI leaks like a sieve.

Yet, this operation proves/ raises two issues:

(a) that the US operation once again takes no cognisance of Pakistan's territorial integrity or sovereignty.

(b) there will be disquiet over and may lead to unrest.

Given the above, the issues are:

1. The Pakistan logistic supply route would be seriously compromised and jeopardised.

Therefore, will the US take the Northern Route through Central Asian Republic and will it be viable, economically and militarily?

2. Will the US, having moved its Drone operations into Afghanistan, go the whole hog? If so, what will be the Pakistani reactions? What will be the international reaction?

3. Will the US undertake any ground operations against the Haqqani and other groups in the Khyber Pakhtunkwa to ensure that these groups can no longer affect the ISAF operations and thereafter go at will to clean up Afghanistan? If so, what will be the repercussions?

4. There are speculations that since Osama is dead, the US in Afghanistan will undertake a drawdown and quit. Will it? Can the US leave without cleansing Afghanistan of the AQ and Taliban, because even if OBL is dead, it does not mean that the AQ or the Taliban is dead and will not be able to go their usual ways?

5. Given that Obama is up for the second term at the Presidency and he has been able to fulfil one of his promises to the American people - getting Osama, would he not be compelled to drawdown or even quit Afghanistan since that was another of his promises to the American people? Can he quit Afghanistan without cleaning it up of the terrorist influences? If not, what are his options.