Ray:
I forgot to mention a fourth reason that would be used to justify a bug out of Afghanistan. It will be said that even if Takfiri terrorists do try to use the place as a base again, it won't matter because we will control that with drones and spec ops strikes. The fact that that couldn't be done because of no bases and no human intel won't matter. It doesn't have to work. It just has to sound good so it will sell. What most Americans know about these things comes from the movies, and in the movies, the guy behind the computer screen knows all and can direct the spec ops guy who can get anywhere at any time. It would sell.
Robert C. Jones:
I like Mr. Armitage's explanation for the resurgence of Taliban & Co. better. He said we put the fear of God into the ISI in 2001 and they stayed scared for a few years. Then they figured out that we weren't serious about things and decided to get back into the game. We fouled up some other things too but the main thing is we didn't follow Forrest's rule "Keep up the scare" when it came to the Pak Army/ISI. We've been doing more along the lines of Oprah's rule "They have to like me". Forrest works better.
I hope your right that a bug out would result in sweet compromise but I suspect the gates of hell would open and things would get worse than we can possibly imagine.
Ray and Robert C. Jones:
I saw a Frontline production yesterday about an insurgent group in north central Afghanistan. They didn't walk much, they went everywhere on motorcycles, two to a bike. The tracks they used were easy for a motorcycle but would be impossible for a MATV. They would go on patrol in groups.
I've read about insurgents use of motorcycles before. How much of a mobility advantage does that give them and what can we do to counter it? (I know this question is off topic but since you guys are both here I figured I'd ask.)
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