I'm not sure you can count the op that killed OBL as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. We say we didn't tell them, and I guess they claim they didn't know, but I don't see how that could be so. Both are lying to save face, like two men telling each other how good looking the other guy's wife is.
Questions 1, 2 and 3, I have no real idea. I can only hope that we would give up the Karachi supply line.
Questions 4 and 5. If Mr. Obama wants to, he can use that loathsome, cynical phrase "declare victory" and bug out, OBL's death being the victory. That would be even more doable if Zawahiri was killed also and maybe a couple of others. The actual facts of the situation won't matter. What matters is what will sell. If he pushes it, Mr. Obama can sell it as the requisite victory. He will have the enthusiastic support of most of the media, and besides, a lot of people want to believe it. Bugging out will be viewed as doing a lot to get him re-elected in his view.
It won't matter if Taliban & Co, AQ and various and sundry terrorists are cleaned out of Afghanistan. We will pretend it doesn't matter and we will justify that in three ways. The first will be to demonize the gov side. That will be done by basically saying they aren't worthy of our assistance. We will say they aren't worthy because they are corrupt, they don't fight hard enough, they have had plenty of time to get their act together and if they haven't by now it's not our fault, conflate the gov elites with ordinary Afghans, etc etc.
The second way will be to build up Taliban & Co. That will be done by highlighting every good thing they ever did and painting them as true representatives of the oppressed.
The third way will be to deny that anything bad will really happen after we bug out. That will be done by saying Taliban & Co are actually sensitive to world opinion, they've changed since 2001, Afghans will find a way to get together and work things out etc. etc.
You have read these already in various American outlets, some on this very sight. It all depends on whether Mr. Obama wants to push it. He doesn't have the nerve to just cut and run. He needs a "victory" to justify a bug out. He has that now if he wants to use it. We'll see. It wouldn't be the first time we've bugged out and left innocent millions to their fate.
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