After the Bin Laden op, what is the impact? Not on terrorism. Merged thread

[JamesB]

Taabistan,

Interesting -- but I'm still not sure how his death is definite proof of Pakistani complicity? Maybe I've not read you correctly.

Do you mean to say Bin Laden was captured and in Abbottabad under house arrest, courtesy of the ISI? Thanks.

[taabistan]

Taabistan,

Interesting -- but I'm still not sure how his death is definite proof of Pakistani complicity? Maybe I've not read you correctly.

Do you mean to say Bin Laden was captured and in Abbottabad under house arrest, courtesy of the ISI? Thanks.

Precisely, although I wouldn't term it as "house arrest" as cars would be coming in and out of the compound. It served more as an ISI safe house. Both Geo TV and DAWN news (media outlets of Pakistan) have reported that over the last five years, Bin Laden received treatment for kidney dialysis in Rawalpindi and Karachi. In order for this to happen, the Pakistani military must have provided protection.

We are aware from intelligence that ISI members attend Taliban shura councils. Several Pakistani generals have admitted on CNN International (in interviews with Michael Ware) and the BBC that they are in direct communication with the Taliban leadership, promising they can bring them to the table on the condition that the US makes concessions on India.

Hamid Gul was recently on the Alex Jones radio show, and made a complete mockery of US counter-terrorism efforts, claiming the whole raid was a hoax. He showed this disrespect before, when he claimed the 9/11 attacks were an inside job on Fareed Zakariya's GPS. This behavior is unbecoming of an ex-Intelligence Chief and is aimed in stoking anti-US resentment back home.

Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.

If my assertions are correct, we will see a spate of revenge attacks conducted against US army personnel in Afghanistan, under the direct orders of Gul. The message will be simple: Keep us in the loop, keep the funds flowing and don't breach Pakistani borders.

[carl]

Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.

Everything about this incident is getting stranger and stranger.

If my assertions are correct, we will see a spate of revenge attacks conducted against US army personnel in Afghanistan, under the direct orders of Gul. The message will be simple: Keep us in the loop, keep the funds flowing and don't breach Pakistani borders.

What form do you think the attacks will take?

[taabistan]

Most likely a combination of suicide attacks and assault on a US base using small arms fire. They will use members of the Haqqani network, or even Tehreek Taliban to do the job. This will be accompanied by a video with images of OBL, verses of the Qur'an and a message from Ayman Zwahiri as part of a propaganda tool. I wouldn't delve too much into the latter. The question is, what is our next move? Karzai will likely wish to meet Petraeus and discuss pressing further on Pakistan, perhaps force them to give up Mullah Omar or other key members of the insurgency. I don't know how the atmosphere is in Washington or if Obama wants to play game with us.

[JamesB]

Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.

That would be interesting - is there any English language report on this that you're aware of?

[omarali50]

To play devil's advocate here: from the average Pakistani's point of view, the US must have known a lot of this from day one (or before day one). If they let it go on, either they are incompetent or involved.....ISI is not the only people with a credibility problem here.
I dont mean to imply that this is some vast conspiracy. I personally think things are generally what they appear to be, not some deep dark conspiracy by the elders of Zion. But I must say that in this case "as they appear to be" includes the US turning a blind eye to many activities that were not very hidden, so one can be excused for thinking that motivations may not have been pure as driven snow OR incompetence may be greater than we imagined.

[carl]

There are various other things being reported about this, the Army cordoned off the neighborhood and told people to stay indoors before the helos came, the power went off before the raid and came on just after it ended and the latest I read was the CIA has a safe house in Abbottabad from which they spied on OBL house. If the CIA had a safe house in Abbottabad, the ISI knew about it. And the Pak Army released a statement saying their intelligence failed and there will be an investigation, by golly. Since when does Pak Army publicly admit that their intel service failed, unless it is a game in a game?

The Pak Army/ISI was in on this deal. What did they get for it?

But I must say that in this case "as they appear to be" includes the US turning a blind eye to many activities that were not very hidden, so one can be excused for thinking that motivations may not have been pure as driven snow OR incompetence may be greater than we imagined.

...or both, the incompetence driving the impure intentions.

[davidbfpo]

We have discussed the role of ISI before on other threads, partly due to their reported role inside Pakistan, the frustration of outsiders at the politics of the region and sheer dismay that a partner state, maybe an ally does not always "jump" to US demands, requests or whatever.

I remain unconvinced today that the deluge of mainly US press reporting based on IMHO unprecedented "leaks" by the US government that SWC can judge what really happened over OBL, let alone wider issues. I am simply astonished that the US press and I assume others have accepted "leaks" on the initial review of the 'treasure trove' from OBL's home. Even more so after the first, official press briefings were so quickly retracted on important details.

Did OBL keep his data all in English? Might it have been encrypted?

We need to remain calm.

Now how the Pakistani state reacts after such a body blow is less likely to be so public, although amidst SWC members there are many who can make valid judgements today.

What I would ask those who post here and others who read - is this body blow an opportunity for civil institutions to exert greater control over state bodies? Yes, ISI and the military. I fear not, for many obvious well known reasons.

[carl]

David:

What do you think of this thought. The Pak Army/ISI runs Pakistan for the most part. They will until they lose a war and are completely discredited. If they win in Afghanistan, drive us out and re-install the Taliban, their power will be that much more firmly entrenched. Then the next war they will have an opportunity to lose will be one with India. When they lose that one, they will be discredited and civilians might be able to run Pakistan. The trouble is, Pakistan might not survive the lost war.

So the irony could be, we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.

Here is a link to a BBC story in which an ISI spokesman admits to the ISI having no idea and local residents stating Pakistan Army soldiers asked them to turn out their lights an hour before the strike.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13268517

It isn't just the US press.