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Thread: After the Bin Laden op, what is the impact? Not on terrorism. Merged thread

  1. #21
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    The bull#### is indeed coming home to roost. But I will stick my neck out and say that I expect GHQ to slowly, painfully, incompetently and disgracefully PULL AWAY from jihadism and all this nonsense. They are men of this world and they are property owners and they know those corner plots in defence housing societies will be worth bat#### if they continue on their current course. It wont be pretty, but they will slowly back away, getting one hundred slaps and eating one hundred onions, but still, they will back away...Now, when I say slowly, I mean SLOWLY. It may well be that they push out the Americans and get their chance at using the "good taliban" in Afghanistan, but that won't be the end of the story. Much worse will follow. In the long run, they will fight their own creations. They want to live in this modern world and when push comes to shove, they will make that choice...that is my prediction of the day.
    * One hundred slaps and onions: A man was about to be punished for some minor crime. He was given a choice, eat 100 onions or get slapped 100 times. He thought the onions sound easier, so he asked for that. After 5 onions he was going nuts with watery eyes and nausea, so he changed his mind and wanted 100 slaps instead, but after 5 slaps it was back to onions. He ended up getting both 100 onions and 100 slaps. ISI is eating onions at the hands of the jihadis and getting slaps from uncle sam (and will get slaps from Uncle Ching one day..these things are fated) and cannot make up its mind which one is worse. It will end up getting both in full measure.

  2. #22
    Moderator Steve Blair's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    Aside from the fact that some of those nations didn't exist in most of the earlier years cited, results would likely differ for Great Britain in 1800, Canada in 1850, Germany in 1900 (much less in 1917 or 1944, two years one might name... ). As for New Zealand, it's simply a function of location. For the bulk of nations, the responses are about about the anglosphere and western solidarity plus historic ties. As is true of any poll, it's a snapshot, answered by some people while others like me just hang up the phone when the Pollsters call...
    And don't forget that this great sample was composed of 1000 people. So the opinion passed off as coming from "the flew-over masses" is in fact only 1000 of those flown over, and there's no real definition of just where that small sample actually lives (or when they were called...I suspect that 1000 folks who were watching Jerry Springer in the morning might have a different perspective than 1000 folks who happened to be watching CNN/Fox talking heads in the evening).

    Sorry...but I'm not a big fan of polls. The pollsters (who have a vested interest in appearing as Oracle-like as possible) are too reluctant to reveal things like refusal rates, sample locations, and so on. Cute for sound-bites, but fairly meaningless otherwise.
    "On the plains and mountains of the American West, the United States Army had once learned everything there was to learn about hit-and-run tactics and guerrilla warfare."
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  3. #23
    Council Member Pete's Avatar
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    Well, if there is a major flaw in your assumptions when you plan a foreign war, studiously ignore it. But then proceed with your operational planning, while you pretend the awkard strategic situation regarding the war doesn't exist. Then set up a massive command-and control apparatus to manage the conflict. Senior NCOs in battalions are always there to counsel those motivation cases who fail to get on with the program.

  4. #24
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    Posted by taabistan
    the troubling issue of how aware were the ISI for the 9/11 attacks
    First, I don't find it so improbable that UBL "could" have been living under ISI's nose without being detected. If you weren't looking in your neighborhood, then you're not going to find him there unless he steps in front of your car when you're driving home. You may not notice then if you were adjusting our radio station to the best jihad propaganda station. I do think it is possible they didn't know, but...

    I tend to believe it is more probable that ISI did know he was there. Musharif was recently reinforced that perception when he was caught in a flat out lie when he said they searched that compound in 2004, when imagery clearly points out the compound didn't exist then. The ISI are such great liers, I think they're to the point they believe they can't tell truth from fiction, and either can several gullable U.S. leaders (civilian and military); especially those who work in Pakistan and "drink tea" with the enemy. It is impossible to see what you refuse to believe.

    I found taabistan's suggestion of great interest, and frankly never considered it before, but if he is correct (see quote above) and we actually have the moral courage to admit it; then what? If the lines were ever traced back to ISI (not rogue ISI, that ship no longer sails) colluding with AQ on the 9/11 attacks that would present an interesting problem set. How do you respond to attack that happened around 10 years ago after you already got in bed and made love repeatedly to the person who attacked you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesB View Post
    Taabistan,

    Interesting -- but I'm still not sure how his death is definite proof of Pakistani complicity? Maybe I've not read you correctly.

    Do you mean to say Bin Laden was captured and in Abbottabad under house arrest, courtesy of the ISI? Thanks.
    Precisely, although I wouldn't term it as "house arrest" as cars would be coming in and out of the compound. It served more as an ISI safe house. Both Geo TV and DAWN news (media outlets of Pakistan) have reported that over the last five years, Bin Laden received treatment for kidney dialysis in Rawalpindi and Karachi. In order for this to happen, the Pakistani military must have provided protection.

    We are aware from intelligence that ISI members attend Taliban shura councils. Several Pakistani generals have admitted on CNN International (in interviews with Michael Ware) and the BBC that they are in direct communication with the Taliban leadership, promising they can bring them to the table on the condition that the US makes concessions on India.

    Hamid Gul was recently on the Alex Jones radio show, and made a complete mockery of US counter-terrorism efforts, claiming the whole raid was a hoax. He showed this disrespect before, when he claimed the 9/11 attacks were an inside job on Fareed Zakariya's GPS. This behavior is unbecoming of an ex-Intelligence Chief and is aimed in stoking anti-US resentment back home.

    Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.

    If my assertions are correct, we will see a spate of revenge attacks conducted against US army personnel in Afghanistan, under the direct orders of Gul. The message will be simple: Keep us in the loop, keep the funds flowing and don't breach Pakistani borders.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    Posted by taabistan


    First, I don't find it so improbable that UBL "could" have been living under ISI's nose without being detected. If you weren't looking in your neighborhood, then you're not going to find him there unless he steps in front of your car when you're driving home. You may not notice then if you were adjusting our radio station to the best jihad propaganda station. I do think it is possible they didn't know, but...
    The one flaw in this argument is believing OBL to taking such a brazen decision to house himself in the middle of an army town. Waziristan is large and vast. If OBL had wanted to prevent his own death, he would have stayed in that area rather than expose himself to Pakistani authorities.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by taabistan View Post
    Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.
    Everything about this incident is getting stranger and stranger.

    Quote Originally Posted by taabistan View Post
    If my assertions are correct, we will see a spate of revenge attacks conducted against US army personnel in Afghanistan, under the direct orders of Gul. The message will be simple: Keep us in the loop, keep the funds flowing and don't breach Pakistani borders.
    What form do you think the attacks will take?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Most likely a combination of suicide attacks and assault on a US base using small arms fire. They will use members of the Haqqani network, or even Tehreek Taliban to do the job. This will be accompanied by a video with images of OBL, verses of the Qur'an and a message from Ayman Zwahiri as part of a propaganda tool. I wouldn't delve too much into the latter. The question is, what is our next move? Karzai will likely wish to meet Petraeus and discuss pressing further on Pakistan, perhaps force them to give up Mullah Omar or other key members of the insurgency. I don't know how the atmosphere is in Washington or if Obama wants to play game with us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by taabistan View Post
    Finally, the recent photos released by Reuters was analyzed by local media here and two of the men have been identified as Pakistani military officers. Were they retired? Were they serving as body guards and/or advisors for OBL? These questions should not only be asked, but done so in public.
    That would be interesting - is there any English language report on this that you're aware of?

  10. #30
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    To play devil's advocate here: from the average Pakistani's point of view, the US must have known a lot of this from day one (or before day one). If they let it go on, either they are incompetent or involved.....ISI is not the only people with a credibility problem here.
    I dont mean to imply that this is some vast conspiracy. I personally think things are generally what they appear to be, not some deep dark conspiracy by the elders of Zion. But I must say that in this case "as they appear to be" includes the US turning a blind eye to many activities that were not very hidden, so one can be excused for thinking that motivations may not have been pure as driven snow OR incompetence may be greater than we imagined.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    The bull#### is indeed coming home to roost. But I will stick my neck out and say that I expect GHQ to slowly, painfully, incompetently and disgracefully PULL AWAY from jihadism and all this nonsense. They are men of this world and they are property owners and they know those corner plots in defence housing societies will be worth bat#### if they continue on their current course. It wont be pretty, but they will slowly back away, getting one hundred slaps and eating one hundred onions, but still, they will back away...Now, when I say slowly, I mean SLOWLY. It may well be that they push out the Americans and get their chance at using the "good taliban" in Afghanistan, but that won't be the end of the story. Much worse will follow. In the long run, they will fight their own creations. They want to live in this modern world and when push comes to shove, they will make that choice...that is my prediction of the day.
    * One hundred slaps and onions: A man was about to be punished for some minor crime. He was given a choice, eat 100 onions or get slapped 100 times. He thought the onions sound easier, so he asked for that. After 5 onions he was going nuts with watery eyes and nausea, so he changed his mind and wanted 100 slaps instead, but after 5 slaps it was back to onions. He ended up getting both 100 onions and 100 slaps. ISI is eating onions at the hands of the jihadis and getting slaps from uncle sam (and will get slaps from Uncle Ching one day..these things are fated) and cannot make up its mind which one is worse. It will end up getting both in full measure.

    I think this is accurate. Pakistan, like many places, was created with borders that don't match the demographic map. Job one for the central government is to keep the state from breaking up. To do this means doing things they think are imperative, that we think ate abhorrent. Throw in vastly different worldviews/first principles (remember Huntington?) and this is what you get.

  12. #32
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    There are various other things being reported about this, the Army cordoned off the neighborhood and told people to stay indoors before the helos came, the power went off before the raid and came on just after it ended and the latest I read was the CIA has a safe house in Abbottabad from which they spied on OBL house. If the CIA had a safe house in Abbottabad, the ISI knew about it. And the Pak Army released a statement saying their intelligence failed and there will be an investigation, by golly. Since when does Pak Army publicly admit that their intel service failed, unless it is a game in a game?

    The Pak Army/ISI was in on this deal. What did they get for it?

    Quote Originally Posted by omarali50 View Post
    But I must say that in this case "as they appear to be" includes the US turning a blind eye to many activities that were not very hidden, so one can be excused for thinking that motivations may not have been pure as driven snow OR incompetence may be greater than we imagined.
    ...or both, the incompetence driving the impure intentions.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  13. #33
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    Default Stay calm as speculators roam

    We have discussed the role of ISI before on other threads, partly due to their reported role inside Pakistan, the frustration of outsiders at the politics of the region and sheer dismay that a partner state, maybe an ally does not always "jump" to US demands, requests or whatever.

    I remain unconvinced today that the deluge of mainly US press reporting based on IMHO unprecedented "leaks" by the US government that SWC can judge what really happened over OBL, let alone wider issues. I am simply astonished that the US press and I assume others have accepted "leaks" on the initial review of the 'treasure trove' from OBL's home. Even more so after the first, official press briefings were so quickly retracted on important details.

    Did OBL keep his data all in English? Might it have been encrypted?

    We need to remain calm.

    Now how the Pakistani state reacts after such a body blow is less likely to be so public, although amidst SWC members there are many who can make valid judgements today.

    What I would ask those who post here and others who read - is this body blow an opportunity for civil institutions to exert greater control over state bodies? Yes, ISI and the military. I fear not, for many obvious well known reasons.
    davidbfpo

  14. #34
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    David:

    What do you think of this thought. The Pak Army/ISI runs Pakistan for the most part. They will until they lose a war and are completely discredited. If they win in Afghanistan, drive us out and re-install the Taliban, their power will be that much more firmly entrenched. Then the next war they will have an opportunity to lose will be one with India. When they lose that one, they will be discredited and civilians might be able to run Pakistan. The trouble is, Pakistan might not survive the lost war.

    So the irony could be, we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.

    Here is a link to a BBC story in which an ISI spokesman admits to the ISI having no idea and local residents stating Pakistan Army soldiers asked them to turn out their lights an hour before the strike.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13268517

    It isn't just the US press.
    Last edited by carl; 05-06-2011 at 03:57 PM. Reason: I added the link.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  15. #35
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    Default Responding to thoughts and irony

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    David:

    What do you think of this thought. The Pak Army/ISI runs Pakistan for the most part. They will until they lose a war and are completely discredited. If they win in Afghanistan, drive us out and re-install the Taliban, their power will be that much more firmly entrenched. Then the next war they will have an opportunity to lose will be one with India. When they lose that one, they will be discredited and civilians might be able to run Pakistan. The trouble is, Pakistan might not survive the lost war.

    So the irony could be, we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.
    Carl,

    Given the history of military on military conflict, four wars since 1947 and countless skirmishing, last at Kargil, I am puzzled why the Pakistani Army has not fully been brought under civilian control. Perhaps after these defeats, notably the loss of East Pakistan, it was not the time for change. The bigger questions are not around the timing or need - as perceived by outsiders - rather the will and capability to act. Finally would the orders be obeyed?

    I would not say the Pakistani Army runs Pakistan; the army controls national security decision-making and Pakistan has many problems that the army stays away from, e.g. water management. When the economy was growing some were optimistic that traditional power-bases would wane, notably the rural landowning elite (who control the main political parties).

    What I do note is the reported frustration of professionals who strive to change and serve the people amidst a deteriorating internal crime and order environment. Many of whom are capable of leaving.

    In fact upon reflection I wonder if the military do not already have little positive credit and Pakistanis are a proud people, so what has just occurred will detract from their credibility as a national institution.

    Secondly, if the Taliban were re-installed in Afghanistan - as you indicated, I am not convinced Pakistanis would be that concerned. I found they looked down on Afghans and the activities since of the Pakistani extremists (PTT plus) will hardly have enhanced their feelings / desire to follow that path.

    Finally and as a reminder:
    ..we are fighting in Afghanistan to defeat the Pak Army/ISI in order to save Pakistan.
    No. The only people who can save Pakistan are the Pakistanis. Defeating the Afghan Taliban is a side issue.
    davidbfpo

  16. #36
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    What do you think of this thought. The Pak Army/ISI runs Pakistan for the most part. They will until they lose a war and are completely discredited. If they win in Afghanistan, drive us out and re-install the Taliban, their power will be that much more firmly entrenched. Then the next war they will have an opportunity to lose will be one with India. When they lose that one, they will be discredited and civilians might be able to run Pakistan. The trouble is, Pakistan might not survive the lost war.
    Ironically the Pakistani Army has been defeated in almost every war they have ever fought, not counting insurgencies and counterinsurgencies.

    The defeat in 1971 was as crushing as you can get. It is key to understanding the hatred and paranoia towards India that is pervasive in the Pakistani Army high command - from their POV, India took away half of the country (Bangladesh) from them, never mind that the Bangladeshis were quite eager to get away in the first place. From their POV, Bangladesh could be repeated just as easily in Sindh or Baluchistan, with the ultimate goal of reversing Partition.

  17. #37
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    Default Eyewitness testimony

    Carl,

    Thanks for this, citing the BBC:
    ...local residents stating Pakistan Army soldiers asked them to turn out their lights an hour before the strike.
    For a host of reasons I am unconvinced, in part reflecting my experience with British-Pakistanis. Soldiers asking people at night to turn their lights off? Given the local character this is one place where I'd expect local residents to be paying for their electricity (unlike many cities) and a local sub-station could easily have been remotely turned off.

    Did the local tweeter mention this request? IIRC he did not.
    davidbfpo

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    Posted by David,

    I remain unconvinced today that the deluge of mainly US press reporting based on IMHO unprecedented "leaks" by the US government that SWC can judge what really happened over OBL, let alone wider issues. I am simply astonished that the US press and I assume others have accepted "leaks" on the initial review of the 'treasure trove' from OBL's home. Even more so after the first, official press briefings were so quickly retracted on important details.
    In my view if we were fighting this war the right way (mostly in the shadows with intelligence and SOF) we wouldn't be pressured to release information to the media, with UBL demise being one of the few exceptions for obvious reasons, but that doesn't mean we need to release excessive details that not surprising are often inaccurate and later refuted. We operate under the assumption that everything will eventually leak to begin with, which in my view indicates a failure of character on the person's part leaking information to stroke his or her ego (look at what I know), or just as bad to gain political capital by hurting one's foe (former administration and current administrations).

    A lot of valuable techniques were needlessly disclosed to feed the media frenzy. Why didn't leaders stand on principle and simply say a small U.S. team conducted a raid into Pakistan to kill UBL and leave it at that? Some idiot apparently released to Washington Post that there was a CIA safehouse in the vicinity of UBL's safehouse. Maybe or maybe not, but why advertise it? Our Public Affairs community in DOD has created this myth (accepted as fact) that we have to get ahead of the reporting, which in some cases is true, but we take it to the extreme and do great harm to our nation in doing so by exposing operating techniques that are still valid if they weren't comprised in the media.

    I can imagine the reaction of the U.S. if these leaks occurred during the Cold War, we would likely call on the leaker(s) to be prosecuted for treason. I think we're in an uncomfortable place and those with big egos that want to be the spot light and loved by the media are currently front and center in this media circus, even if they had a relatively minor role to play.

    As you point out the truth is obscured with all the B.S. reporting, so maybe in the long run it will actually be in our favor (unintentionally). Hopefully, we'll never know if deals were made with the Pakistanis, because most countries don't like conducting their business transparently, and they won't do business with us if we can't re-learn to keep secrets.

    We need to hang up the old operations security poster in everyone's office, where a tough looking Sergeant is offering viewers a canteen cup saying "have a cup of shut the f*** up".

  19. #39
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    David:

    Is the electrical grid in Abbottabad computer controlled and hooked up to the internet? I have no idea at all. But if it was controlled the old fashioned way, would it have been possible to shut it down remotely? Again, I don't know.

    Tequila:

    I can understand the GHQ thinking India might want to undue partition but the Indians would be nuts to want that. Who would want the place? Seeing it broken up into several parts on the other hand, might not be so bad from the Indian point of view.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Witches' Brew at best.

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