South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[carl]

We don't keep the lanes open. Nobody's threatening to close them, and we could pull our entire Navy back to our shores without putting commerce at risk, except perhaps near Somalia. What we maintain is the capacity to interfere if we choose to do so. That's kind of like a nuclear bomb: you don't have to use it to maintain the threat, because everybody knows it's there.

Actually, we do, with a bit of help from others, but nobody but us can do it with reasonably strong force in every ocean. And nobody is threatening to close them because of those various naval vessels out there that may kill them if they try. We could disband our Navy completely and there would be no threat to commerce, for a little while. But you are right, we maintain the capacity to interfere with those who would interfere with freedom of navigation.

That is what concerns me. Given the totality of Red Chinese actions, if they manage to run off the USN, I think they may try to interfere with freedom of navigation. I just can't bring myself to trust totalitarian police states. As you yourself note below, they seem to want to do some shoving around. When murderous police states want to some shoving, I get worried.

Aside from the perception of threat, we have to consider the generalized Chinese desire to force their way into the top table, to be taken seriously, to be a player with military weight equal to their economic weight. If you've followed Chinese commentary over the years, you'd have noted a phase of public exasperation over what was considered an absurd situation: that has-been nations like Britain and France had more potent navies, greater expeditionary capacity, and more perceived influence on global affairs than China. China's in a "coming out" phase, blending great arrogance with great insecurity... the US went through a phase like that in its own history. It may not be entirely rational and it's not the only influence out there, but it's not a factor that can fully be discounted either.

We may have had a coming out phase, maybe not. But if we did I don't remember us challenging the RN for control of the Atlantic. We let them handle that kind of thing while we made money. The Red Chinese would be wise to do the same.

India has in fact built a quite substantial Navy, and the British still maintain a Navy that might be considered out of proportion to their economic needs. The difference is that you don't perceive these nations as a challenge. Again, remember that China's dependence on maritime commerce is greater than that of any other nation on earth. A hostile power that could cut off Chinese access to Africa, the Middle East, and Europe, which could be done far from China's shores, could bring their economy grinding to a halt in no time. Powers exist that can do this, and those powers are not entirely friendly. In their position, would we not perceive a threat? If China could, at any time of their choosing, cut us off from our primary commodity imports and merchandise exports (to the extent that we have any), would we not see that as an issue?

None of those navies are built to challenge the USN. And no, Red China's dependence upon sea trade is not greater than anybody else on earth. If all sea trade were to stop tomorrow, I am sure the Japanese would perish first.

Powers exist that could cut off Japanese access to Africa, the Middle East and Europe. Those powers could cut off trade to Brazil, India, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and on and on and on. But they don't seem too worried. If the Red Chinese are worried about that, the only way to assuage that worry is to control ALL of the worlds oceans, ALL the time. That will lead to a great big war if they try it.

So if that is what they are worried about, world domination can solve that. I don't think I will cut them slack on that and say I understand.

Did they chase off the USN? When did that happen, I must have missed it. The 7th fleet flagship was parked in Manila a few weeks ago, so it must have been recent...

Now Dayuhan, don't be cute. Read the whole paragraph.