South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[slapout9]

Asean Council On Petroleum

http://ascope.org/

[Dayuhan]

It's fascinating that the idea of "massive oil resources" in the Spratly Islands has been elevated to the level of accepted truth. On the basis of actual evidence it's extremely hypothetical. No test wells have been driulled, and though the Chinese claim there is oil, other authorities (notably USGS, which is generally fairly optimistic in its estimates) point out that there's no real evidence of substantial deposits.

[LawVol]

I'm not sure this is really about oil in the Spratley Islands anyway. Sure, the pretext is there, but this may be more about China extending its maritime defensive perimeter -- the so-called string of pearls. China's maritime claims go hand-in-hand with their activity in 2001 (EP-3 take down) and in 2009 (USNS Impeccable incident). In both cases, just like with their maritime claims, the design seems to be to have more stand-off against the US Navy.

With some exceptions, China has settled its land disputes and now turns to the sea. By effectively claiming the south China sea, China can also move a step closer to securing maritime energy transport (their real goal I think). They are building a naval base in Gwadar, Pakistan that will provide security near the Persian Gulf for their shipments. Securing the South China Sea bookends the transport route. Next comes the straight of Malacca which becomes easier to secure if you have naval might on both sides of it.

I'm not saying China can challenge US naval supremacy now, but they are taking action that could be bothersome. In a time of financial incertitude in the US, this may be the perfect time for China to act.

[JMA]

I'm not saying China can challenge US naval supremacy now, but they are taking action that could be bothersome. In a time of financial incertitude in the US, this may be the perfect time for China to act.

Its the old Chinese torture method called "death by a thousand cuts".

...in reality we see the boiling frog story unfolding where the US is the frog:

The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to significant changes that occur gradually.

...and the amazing thing is that the American people don't realise whats happening!

[Ray]

Philippines preparing issues for UN about China ‘intrusions’'

THE PHILIPPINES is preparing to file another complaint with the United Nations on new Chinese "intrusions" into Philippine territory, President Benigno S. C. Aquino III said yesterday, as he committed to raising the issue with Beijing in a state visit by the third quarter.

"We are completing the data on about six to seven instances since February. We will present it to [China] and then bring these to the appropriate body, which normally is the United Nations," Mr. Aquino told reporters during his two-day official state visit to Brunei Darrusalam that ended yesterday.

While Mr. Aquino reiterated the call for "peaceful resolution" rather than provocation in the disputed territories in the South China Sea, he noted that some actions of China were not justified.

The latest of the series of Chinese intrusions, Mr. Aquino noted, occurred on the same day that he had a bilateral meeting with Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie in Manila on May 23.

In this instance, Chinese vessels were reportedly unloading building materials and also placed a buoy in waters inside the West Philippine Sea.

http://www.bworldonline.com/content....80%99&id=32475

[davidbfpo]

Ray and others,

The competition over the islands, reefs and the like in the South China Sea IIRC is well documented in journals, although you need a good map to follow the claims.

The situation between PR China and others is not straight forward IMHO, partly as economic growth has distracted states from such competition and potential for conflict.

Nor is the situation between the PRC and the USA clear-cut. How many know non-military PRC agencies are aboard US Coast Guard vessels in the North Pacific? For 'fishery protection' IIRC.

Have a peek at 'Survival', the journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); in The February-March 2011 edition, in an article 'Policing the Waves:Maritime Paramilitaries in the Asia-Pacific' by Christian Le Miere (who is the IISS's resident export on matters naval), pgs. 133-145. Fascinating, especially the use of non-naval agencies by most nations.

[LawVol]

It may be a "boiling frog" issue and it is certainly complex, as indicated by David. However, this does provide an opening for the US. Our pursuit of the "war on terror" has led us to take our eye of certain aspects of the Pacific.

The main US interest here is maintaining freedom of navigation in the commons. This interest conflicts with China's traditional view on sovereignty, which takes on a nationalistic tone given their history, specifically what they call "the century of shame and humiliation," which refers to their exploitation by western powers. If I was in their shoes, I'd probably take the same position. The problem here is that their position is contrary to international law.

I'm no expert on law of the sea, but since they are signatories to the law of the sea convention they are bound by its provisions and it repudiates their claims. Believe it or not, international law can be just as much of an achilles heel to them as it can sometimes be to us. This is where we can press them and use the issue to bring other countries in the region closer to us. This should be framed as an economic, trade issue rather than a security issue though. The last time a rising Asian power headed south for economic reasons, Pearl Harbor was attacked. It is a security issue for us, but I think we get more play using law and economics as weapons of choice.

By the way, this whole maritime issue also plays into China's actions in space. The goal is access denial by continually pushing the boundaries of sovereignty. Whereas Europeans and some others are chipping away at sovereignty, China embraces it and seeks to expand it in novel ways. The lawyer in me likes the strategy even if I do not agree with the tactics.