South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Azor]

From Jamestown:

With the announcement that the Permanent Court of Arbitration will rule on July 12 on its case between the Philippine and Chinese governments regarding China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, tensions in the area are coming to a head (Court of Arbitration, June 29). On July 3, China’s Maritime Safety Agency released a notice to mariners declaring a sizable part of the South China Sea off-limits between July 5–11 for military exercises (China Maritime Safety Administration, July 3; see map). The off-limits area is more than 86,000 square kilometers, larger than South Carolina. China has also increased its tempo of public statements and rebuttals regarding the court case in recent months (China Brief, June 21).

[AdamG]

China has lost a key international legal case over strategic reefs and atolls that it claims would give it control over disputed waters of the South China Sea. The judgment by an international tribunal in The Hague chiefly in favour of claims by the Philippines will increase global diplomatic pressure on Beijing to scale back military expansion in the sensitive area.

By depriving certain outcrops – some of which are exposed only at low tide – of territorial-generating status, the ruling effectively punches a series of holes in China’s all-encompassing “nine-dash” demarcation line that stretches deep into the South China Sea. It declares large areas of the sea to be neutral international waters.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[AdamG]

Beijing will close off access to part of the South China Sea for military drills, officials said Monday, after an international tribunal ruled against its sweeping claims in the waters.

An area off the east coast of China's island province of Hainan will host military exercises from Tuesday to Thursday, China's maritime administration said on its website, adding that entrance was "prohibited".

The area of sea identified is some distance from the Paracel islands and even further from the Spratlys, with both chains claimed by Beijing and several other neighbouring states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartandhp

[Maeda Toshiie]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

[davidbfpo]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

One would hope that political and military planners - not just Americans - have considered this as a possibility.

My recollection is that the Cold War era US-USSR de-confliction agreements included such circumstances and enabled direct military to military communication. Somehow I doubt those agreements informally and formally have been replicated with the PRC.

[Dayuhan]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10B10G

'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response

China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

China refused to participate in the case overseen by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

It denounced the emphatic July 12 ruling in favor of the Philippines as a farce that had no legal basis and part of an anti-China plot cooked up in Washington.

The ruling has been followed in China by a wave of nationalist sentiment, scattered protests and strongly worded editorials in state media.

...

Bunch of chicken hawks. Who would've thunk?

[AdamG]

Why did China fly 'combat patrols' over the Spratly Islands?

In the wake of an international court's ruling rejecting China's claims to disputed territory in the South China Sea, China said the combat exercises were an effort to protect its 'maritime interests.'

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-...pratly-Islands

Satellite photographs taken in late July show China appears to have built reinforced aircraft hangars on its holdings in disputed South China Sea islands, a Washington-based research group said.

The hangars on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands have room for any fighter jet in the Chinese air force, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a report on the photographs.

The images have emerged about a month after an international court in The Hague ruled against China's claims in the resource-rich area, a decision rejected by Beijing. China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K08P

Vietnam has discreetly fortified several of its islands in the disputed South China Sea with new mobile rocket launchers capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route, according to Western officials.

Diplomats and military officers told Reuters that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months, a move likely to raise tensions with Beijing

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K2NE