South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Dayuhan]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.

[Maeda Toshiie]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10B10G

'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response

China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

China refused to participate in the case overseen by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

It denounced the emphatic July 12 ruling in favor of the Philippines as a farce that had no legal basis and part of an anti-China plot cooked up in Washington.

The ruling has been followed in China by a wave of nationalist sentiment, scattered protests and strongly worded editorials in state media.

...

Bunch of chicken hawks. Who would've thunk?

[AdamG]

Why did China fly 'combat patrols' over the Spratly Islands?

In the wake of an international court's ruling rejecting China's claims to disputed territory in the South China Sea, China said the combat exercises were an effort to protect its 'maritime interests.'

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-...pratly-Islands

Satellite photographs taken in late July show China appears to have built reinforced aircraft hangars on its holdings in disputed South China Sea islands, a Washington-based research group said.

The hangars on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratly islands have room for any fighter jet in the Chinese air force, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said in a report on the photographs.

The images have emerged about a month after an international court in The Hague ruled against China's claims in the resource-rich area, a decision rejected by Beijing. China claims most of the South China Sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K08P

Vietnam has discreetly fortified several of its islands in the disputed South China Sea with new mobile rocket launchers capable of striking China's runways and military installations across the vital trade route, according to Western officials.

Diplomats and military officers told Reuters that intelligence shows Hanoi has shipped the launchers from the Vietnamese mainland into position on five bases in the Spratly islands in recent months, a move likely to raise tensions with Beijing

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-so...-idUSKCN10K2NE

[AdamG]

As good a thread as any for this observation, on public perceptions and how the Chinese entertainment industry views themselves and their enemies: in WOLF WARRIOR, the Good Guys are no longer Mao's valiant warriors but are all about the high tech and the bad guys are Caucasian former SEALs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqCNF5XttZg

[AdamG]

China is preparing for a potential military clash with the United States, according to an article on the Chinese army's website.
"The possibility of war increases" as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up, Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China's Central Military Commission, wrote on Jan. 20—the same day as President Donald Trump's inauguration.
"'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality," Liu said in the Chinese commentary piece.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-ch...cial-says.html

[AdamG]

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Saturday played down any need for major U.S. military moves in the South China Sea to contend with China's assertive behavior, even as he sharply criticized Beijing for "shredding the trust of nations in the region."
"At this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all," Mattis told a news conference in Tokyo, stressing that the focus should be on diplomacy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15J061

Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full

China has accused the US of putting the stability of the Asia-Pacific at risk after Donald Trump’s defence secretary said Washington would come to Japan’s defence in the event of a conflict with Beijing over the disputed Senkaku islands.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...?CMP=edit_2221

[Azor]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/29/us-ch...cial-says.html

Yawn. The Chinese have had plenty of time and space to resolve the following issues without any external pressure:

15 years to renounce using military force against Taiwan
10-15 years to disarm North Korea, removing nuclear weapons from the peninsula
10-15 years to resolve territorial disputes with Japan and the Philippines diplomatically and without the use of coercion or force

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKBN15J061

Mattis is quite correct. However, the forces in theater should be prepared for war as China will probably strike first, hard and fast. Establishing Allied A2/AD zones in the First and Second Island Chains while under fire will be important, and the USMC can play an important role in establishing land-based components of those zones.

Meanwhile, the Guardian's cup is half-full

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...?CMP=edit_2221

It's plain wrong.

The United States has explicitly stated for decades that the Diaoyou/Senkakus are under Japan's administration (despite the trilateral dispute), and therefore are covered by American defense commitments to Japan.

[AdamG]

Japan plans to dispatch its largest warship on a three-month tour through the South China Sea beginning in May, three sources said, in its biggest show of naval force in the region since World War Two.
China claims almost all the disputed waters and its growing military presence has fueled concern in Japan and the West, with the United States holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.
The Izumo helicopter carrier, commissioned only two years ago, will make stops in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka before joining the Malabar joint naval exercise with Indian and U.S. naval vessels in the Indian Ocean in July.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16K0UP