South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

[Bill Moore]

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the...-21st-century/

The Choice for Asia in the 21st Century
Sen. John McCain

Editor’s Note: The following is adapted from Sen. McCain’s speech as prepared for delivery at RSIS in Singapore before the start of the Shangri-la Dialogue.

Southeast Asia faces a choice. As a frequent visitor to this region, I have lived to see things I never thought possible. Singapore has transformed itself from a small port town to a global financial hub. The Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Burma is on a path to democracy. Indonesia has become an emerging regional leader. America and Vietnam have laid down the burdens of history and are building a new economic and security partnership. I could go on.

I like the way Sen McCain framed the choice here, this is a narrative that is factual and one China cannot compete with.

The choice for Southeast Asia in the 21st century is not between the United States and China, as some would make it out to be. Instead it is a choice between two futures—one in which the rules-based order is upheld and its benefits expanded to ever more people in Asia, or a darker future that resembles the past in this region and the world, where might makes right, and bullies set the rules and break them.

A major test will come later this month when the Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to rule on the case filed by the Government of the Philippines concerning disputed areas of the South China Sea. There is no principle more fundamental to the rules-based order than the rule of law.

[AdamG]

BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - China should prepare itself for military confrontation in the South China Sea, an influential Chinese paper said on Tuesday, a week ahead of a decision by an international court on a dispute there between China and the Philippines.

Tensions have been rising ahead of a July 12 ruling by an arbitration court hearing the argument between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea in the Dutch city of The Hague.

In joint editorials in its Chinese and English editions, the state-run Global Times said the dispute, having already been complicated by U.S. intervention, now faces further escalation due to the threat posed by the tribunal to China's sovereignty.

"Washington has deployed two carrier battle groups around the South China Sea, and it wants to send a signal by flexing its muscles: As the biggest powerhouse in the region, it awaits China's obedience," it said.

China should speed up developing its military deterrence abilities, the paper added.

"Even though China cannot keep up with the U.S. militarily in the short-term, it should be able to let the U.S. pay a cost it cannot stand if it intervenes in the South China Sea dispute by force," it said.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[Azor]

From Jamestown:

With the announcement that the Permanent Court of Arbitration will rule on July 12 on its case between the Philippine and Chinese governments regarding China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas, tensions in the area are coming to a head (Court of Arbitration, June 29). On July 3, China’s Maritime Safety Agency released a notice to mariners declaring a sizable part of the South China Sea off-limits between July 5–11 for military exercises (China Maritime Safety Administration, July 3; see map). The off-limits area is more than 86,000 square kilometers, larger than South Carolina. China has also increased its tempo of public statements and rebuttals regarding the court case in recent months (China Brief, June 21).

[AdamG]

China has lost a key international legal case over strategic reefs and atolls that it claims would give it control over disputed waters of the South China Sea. The judgment by an international tribunal in The Hague chiefly in favour of claims by the Philippines will increase global diplomatic pressure on Beijing to scale back military expansion in the sensitive area.

By depriving certain outcrops – some of which are exposed only at low tide – of territorial-generating status, the ruling effectively punches a series of holes in China’s all-encompassing “nine-dash” demarcation line that stretches deep into the South China Sea. It declares large areas of the sea to be neutral international waters.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

[AdamG]

Beijing will close off access to part of the South China Sea for military drills, officials said Monday, after an international tribunal ruled against its sweeping claims in the waters.

An area off the east coast of China's island province of Hainan will host military exercises from Tuesday to Thursday, China's maritime administration said on its website, adding that entrance was "prohibited".

The area of sea identified is some distance from the Paracel islands and even further from the Spratlys, with both chains claimed by Beijing and several other neighbouring states.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartandhp

[Maeda Toshiie]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

[davidbfpo]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

One would hope that political and military planners - not just Americans - have considered this as a possibility.

My recollection is that the Cold War era US-USSR de-confliction agreements included such circumstances and enabled direct military to military communication. Somehow I doubt those agreements informally and formally have been replicated with the PRC.

[Dayuhan]

A thought just struck me. Suppose the PLAN decides to hold a live firing exercise in the waters and there is a Freedom of Navigation cruise cutting across it.

1. How would the USN react?

2. Suppose the cruise continues and a live round hits a USN DDG , what would be the response?

The exercise area is well away from the disputed area and nowhere near where the US FONOPS have been taking place.