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Thread: South China Sea and China (2011-2017)

  1. #61
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    Notwithstanding the interpretations given about the US Defence Treaty with the Philippines that an attack was necessary, I stand vindicated that the Treaty is valid even as a 'threat in being'.

    The US has already into the US Philippines naval exercises in the conflict area of the South China Sea.

    Next month, the US is doing a similar exercise with the Vietnam Navy.

    The US is reasserting that it is not a 'has been' as many in China and many Chinese sympathiser may feel.

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ray View Post
    The US has already into the US Philippines naval exercises in the conflict area of the South China Sea.

    Next month, the US is doing a similar exercise with the Vietnam Navy.

    The US is reasserting that it is not a 'has been' as many in China and many Chinese sympathiser may feel.
    If naval exercises assert that you're not a has-been, the US has never been one, because naval exercises in the SCS are an annual ritual, have been for decades.

    There may be some in China who see the US as a has-been, but there are many more who see the US as a dangerous, aggressive power bent on hemming them in and curbing their growth, one that they must be prepared to resist. The PLA, naturally, encourages this view.

    How do you figure Americans would feel about the Chinese navy conducting exercises in the Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    How do you figure Americans would feel about the Chinese navy conducting exercises in the Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast?
    If it was me and the Chinese had been exercising with the Mexican Navy for the last several decades and it never interfered with my free use of the sea for trade, I wouldn't really care. There they go on this year's exercise.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    If it was me and the Chinese had been exercising with the Mexican Navy for the last several decades and it never interfered with my free use of the sea for trade, I wouldn't really care. There they go on this year's exercise.
    I wouldn't care either, but you can bet there'd be a fair bit of hysteria in the background. The point is that before we assume that people think we're impotent and we need to show them otherwise, we might want to consider that a lot of people may already see us as an altogether too potent threat, one that they have to gear up to counter or confront. If we're looking at managing perceptions, we need to look realistically at what they are.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  5. #65
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    Default Waving ones Saber about tends to annoy folks...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    ...you can bet there'd be a fair bit of hysteria in the background...we might want to consider that a lot of people may already see us as an altogether too potent threat...
    True. We spent forty years bugging the daylights out of the USSR only to find out they were far more afraid of us than we thought we were of them. Their response was to posture and bluster and while we foolishly paid that noise undue attention in rather hysterical over reaction, they did some rather subtle things that slipped under our radar and did and will do some lasting damage...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    If naval exercises assert that you're not a has-been, the US has never been one, because naval exercises in the SCS are an annual ritual, have been for decades.

    There may be some in China who see the US as a has-been, but there are many more who see the US as a dangerous, aggressive power bent on hemming them in and curbing their growth, one that they must be prepared to resist. The PLA, naturally, encourages this view.

    How do you figure Americans would feel about the Chinese navy conducting exercises in the Gulf of Mexico and off the California coast?
    It is not that I am a ‘has been’. It is just that your repeated assertions that the US’ involvement and engagement in the Asia Pacific Rim is mere ritualistic and has no strategic intent or a desire to exert its influence.

    And that the US Philippines naval exercise is a mere ritual and has nothing to do with the Chinese aggressive intent in the South China Sea.

    Therefore, I find your remark in the post to Carl -
    The point is that before we assume that people think we're impotent and we need to show them otherwise
    interesting.

    IIRC, your view was that the Obama Asia tour was merely a visit to Asia. The ‘encirclement’ fears expressed by the Chinese media was mere rituals and so were the visits and pronouncement of Ms Clinton was a ritual. The unveiling of the Chinese Stealth and Gate’s visit and his pronouncement were mere ritualistic and the unveiling was a coincidence. The sum total was that these are mere ‘another day’s work’.

    You have asserted that the US Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty was only applicable if one was physically attacked.

    In short, the US is merely a bystander to what is happening in the Asia Pacific and is not concerned with the events occurring in the South China Sea.

    Now, once again, you dismiss the US - Philippines naval exercise as an 'annual ritual'. In other words, routine!

    If indeed it were an annual ritual of no consequence but a ‘ritual’, it is surprising that China would react so strongly as

    “It’s not a proper time for the United States to conduct military drills in the region with the Philippines and Vietnam,” said Gen. Chen Bingde, chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army during a news briefing with Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff…….

    “The timing of these joint exercises is inappropriate as we see it,” Gen. Chen said. “If the United States truly wants peace and stability in the region, it should adjust the schedule of its military drills.”
    From:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...rcises-inappr/

    What did Ms Clinton mean by:

    Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton riled China last year when she said freedom of navigation in the area was a U.S. national interest
    From:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...rcises-inappr/

    Obviously, national interest, if was a mere ritual, would not require reminder!

    And what Adm Mullen stated at Renmin University indicates just what I was saying – that the US is a Pacific power and will exert its will and not be a mere ritual obsessed bystander.

    In a speech to a Renmin University on Sunday, Adm. Mullen said the United States is a Pacific power and would remain so
    From:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...rcises-inappr/

    Lastly, if indeed as you have continuously reiterated throughout that the US Philippines naval exercise was a mere ‘annual ritual’ and has nothing to do with the Chinese aggressive actions in the South China Sea, could you explain why immediately after the US Phlippines naval exercise, the US is carrying out a similar exercise with Vietnam?

    Indeed, why should the US undertake a naval exercise with Vietnam? It is not an ‘annual ritual’? In fact, the US has no military ties with Vietnam. So, why?

    US may have cut their Defence Budget, but under no circumstances has she diluted her strategic intent nor is she a ‘has been’. She is a superpower and will continue to be so even if appears to have toned down its rhetoric!
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-20-2011 at 09:13 AM. Reason: Fix quotes

  7. #67
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    There is no hysteria as far as the US is concerned.

    It (the US) is quite calm and only reassuring those who think the US has downslided that the US remains as steadfast in its aim as it was before.

    It is merely exerting sending a signal that attempts by any country, no matter who, to dictate unacceptable terms on others, would be to their disadvantage.

    If that is, to some, hysteria, then so be it!

    And as Carl has replied as to China carrying out exercises with Mexico, I will give it a pass.

  8. #68
    Council Member Backwards Observer's Avatar
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    Default more what you'd call "guidelines"

    Hush now, the grown-ups are talking:


    Clinton Welcomes South China Sea Guidelines

    U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Friday welcomed a draft agreement between China and ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, aimed at defusing tensions over disputed waters of the South China Sea. Clinton met her Chinese counterpart, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, on the sidelines of the ASEAN regional forum in Bali.

    [...]

    "I want to commend China and ASEAN for working so closely together to include implementation guidelines for the declaration of conduct in the South China Sea, and of course we will discuss our mutual desire for peace and stability on the Korean peninsula,” said Clinton.

    [...]

    “I do believe that the conclusion of the guidelines is of great significance, and it will go a long way to maintaining the peace and stability and good-neighborliness in this region. And this will also provide favorable conditions for the proper handling and the settlement of the disputes among the claimants,” Yang said.
    Clinton Welcomes South China Sea Guidelines - Voice of America - July 22, 2011

    ...

    Asian Nations move to calm tensions, US commends

    Asian nations moved Friday to defuse two critical points of tension in the Pacific, in preliminary steps welcomed by the Obama administration, which is moving to reassert US influence in the region.

    On the sidelines of a Southeast Asian regional security conference in Bali, Indonesia, China and its neighbors reached a draft agreement to peacefully resolve competing territorial claims in the strategic South China Sea while North and South Korea agreed to resume talks. US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton commended Beijing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for the deal and expressed cautious hope that discussion between Seoul and Pyongyang could help relaunch stalled nuclear disarmament negotiations with the North.

    "I want to commend China and ASEAN for working so closely together to include implementation guidelines for the declaration of conduct in the South China Sea," Clinton told Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi at the meeting.
    Asian nations move to calm tensions, US commends - Jakarta Post - July 22, 2011

    ...

    Pirate Code - youtube

    ...

    the code is the law - youtube
    Last edited by Backwards Observer; 07-22-2011 at 11:44 AM. Reason: speling, gramar also

  9. #69
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    A viewpoint from IISS:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...uth-china-sea/

    Which ends with:
    The future is therefore likely to see escalating naval competition and confrontation involving paramilitary forces, even amid diplomatic moves to manage the dispute.
    There is IMHO a countervailing stance available, given by the Chinese Defence Minister in June 2011, summarised in an IISS Newsletter:http://www.iiss.org/publications/iis...1/summer-2011/

    Fuller details are on:http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-...dialogue-2011/
    davidbfpo

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    Default China warns India on South China Sea exploration projects

    China warns India on South China Sea exploration projects

    China on Thursday indicated it was opposed to India engaging in oil and gas exploration projects in the disputed South China Sea, and warned Indian companies against entering into any agreements with Vietnam ahead of External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna's visit to Hanoi this week.

    "Our consistent position is that we are opposed to any country engaging in oil and gas exploration and development activities in waters under China's jurisdiction," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said, in reply to a question on reports that the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Videsh Limited was considering exploration projects in two blocks that Vietnam claims.
    In recent weeks, India, too, has raised concerns over Chinese projects in disputed territory — in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). China has rejected Indian concerns over this issue, stating that it viewed the dispute as one for India and Pakistan to solve.

    Ms. Jiang said the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea "did not give any country the right to expand their own exclusive economic zone and continental shelf to other countries' territories". The convention, she said, did not negate "a country's right formed in history that has been consistently claimed".
    http://www.thehindu.com/news/interna...cle2455647.ece

    An interesting situation.

    China can operate in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir as it so desire even though knowing fully well that India claims it as a part of India and Pakistan considers it as a dispute and yet, if India legitimately explore for oil in Vietnamese water, it upsets China since they claim it is 'disputed'

    Does indicate double speak that is legend with China. There is one rule for China and one rule for others!!

  11. #71
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    Default the weird sisters

    India picks a quarrel with China
    By M K Bhadrakumar

    India, which has been wetting its toes sporadically in the South China Sea in the recent years, is apparently taking the plunge to wade waist-deep into the troubled waters. It is a historic move - be it there is no clarity whether merely tactical or strategic. But it is historic; India's "Look East" policy acquires swagger. The Sino-Indian geostrategic rivalry is not going to be the same again.
    India picks a quarrel with China - Asia Times - Sept 17, 2011.

    Regardless of how one may perceive the current state of US 'world leadership', no further example is needed that at least two of the would-be contenders are a good many generations away from all but the most fanciful consideration. So let it be written...
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    The Philippines is engaged in a muscle-flexing row with China over oil drilling in the South China Sea, writes Andy Higgins at the Washington Post. So are India and Vietnam, reports Ishaan Thardoor at Time, who wonders whether war is possible between China and India.

    http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com...eed_a_big_navy



    Quote Originally Posted by Backwards Observer View Post
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    This is how these things get started...
    Last edited by AdamG; 09-23-2011 at 02:04 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    I'll see your observation and raise you.
    I'm just here for the gasoline.

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    LONDON, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- An ugly momentum is building in the South China Sea, where an official Chinese newspaper called last week for war against Vietnam and the Philippines to uphold China's assertion of sovereignty over the mineral-rich seabed, estimated to hold 7 billion barrels of oil and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

    The lead article in the Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times Tuesday carried the headline "The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea; Let's wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to prevent more wars."


    Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis...#ixzz1Zlccspy9
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    Manila: The Philippine government has refused to return the 25 Chinese vessels that were taken in the South China Sea (also known as the West Philippine Sea) and the case is to be resolved with the help of a third party, a local paper said.
    http://gulfnews.com/news/world/phili...boats-1.912206

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Just spent a few days in Subic. One of the gossip items on the base is the construction of a substantial fueling facility on a US Navy contract. Apparently the deal is that the contractor will build and operate the facility, with the Navy guaranteeing a minimum purchase level over a seven year period.

    Second hand news and potentially with inaccuracies, but the sources are reasonably reliable and if true it would suggest an intention to maintain a US Naval presence in the area.

    I do not think it's likely that the Navy will be moving back into Subic in a major way. There's not a lot of space available. Since FedEx left the airport and most of the buildings around it are pretty much vacant, but the old NavMag area and most of the pier facilities are leased to private investors. With the fueling facility and the new shipyard (Korean owned but presumably available for repairs etc) there's certainly potential for a support role.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

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    Navy readies for Chinese power grab on shipping - Washington Times

    The Navy’s top officer detailed Tuesday the strategy for making sure the South China Sea and Western Pacific remain open to international shipping, saying an emerging China might try to “limit access in the region.”

    The remarks by Adm. Jonathan Greenert, chief of naval operations, represented a frank assessment of China’s potential power grabs as it continues a military buildup that includes more ships and anti-ship weapons.
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...b-on-shipping/

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    PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii — The U.S. Navy’s top commander in the Pacific says he’s concerned local arguments in disputed oil rich waters near the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea could escalate into larger, more serious confrontations.

    Adm. Patrick Walsh said Tuesday there’s potential for an incident in the South China Sea to intensify much the way tensions between China and Japan spiked after ships belonging to the Asian powers collided near the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands claimed by both nations in 2010.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...n6P_story.html
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    China, citing historical discoveries, says that the entire South China Sea should be its own exclusive economic zone. The Philippines, however, shares a long border with the sea and sees some of it as its own. So does Vietnam, and other regional countries. That's got some a little nervous.
    http://www.pri.org/stories/world/asi...ions-8260.html
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    An Outraged Chinese General Tells The Philippines It's Their 'Last Chance'

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/china...#ixzz1rfKGrvrb


    The territorial dispute in the South China Sea between Vietnam, the Philippines, and China is far from over.

    The three countries have been going back-and-forth over rights to supposed oil and gas reserves throughout the region, with Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei also attempting to lay claim on the deposits.

    There were hopes the issue would be brought closer to resolution during the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Cambodia, but that get-together seems to have had exactly the opposite effect.

    Brian Spegele at the WSJ's China Real Time Reports that Chinese Major General Luo Yuan left the summit, got back to China and penned a warning to the island nation that he published in the Global Times newspaper.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/china...dispute-2012-4

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