Arab Spring vs. The Revolutions of 1848

[tequila]

Speaking of Thailand, Josh Kurlantzick has written a couple of excellent articles on Thailand's failed democratic transition here and here:

Bangkok on the Nile.

[M-A Lagrange]

I would just make a very culturally French centric comment:
1848 revolutions are the off shoot of 1789 revolution and Napoleonian wars. Napoleon did spread 2 things all over Europ: Republic (the end of absolute Monrachy) and Nation.
To come back to Slate article, Germany was aiming to build a Nation. And did through Bismark not too long later.
France was aiming to establish a Republic against the will of neigbouring Kings and Queens of the time. Took longer cause we had a second empire in the middle of the process but reached the objective almost at the same time than Germany. (Unexpected, un forseen consequence of Bismark Germany unification?)

I am not sure than out of the domino effect their are so many parralleles between 1848 and the actual Arab Spring.
But I might be wrong.

[TheCurmudgeon]

the Article is good but, as you note, there is not enough there to make a good comparison. Just received 1848, Year of Revolution by Mike Rapport. So far he takes a shorter view of history than I would like, mimicking your comments that Napoleon sowed the seed of republic throughout Europe. I suppose the same could be argued about WWII and the countries involved today, but that would be a stretch.

I will let you know what else I find.

[Bob's World]

Arab Spring arrives in Israel??

http://english.aljazeera.net/program...836750831.html


There is probably no country in the Middle East that does not possess suppressed Conditions of Insurgency great enough to cause massive popular action. This is not an Arab affiction, it is a human one, and governments everywhere would we well served to not merely take note, but also to take a hard look at old policies and seek meaningful reforms before they lose control of the situation.

[Steve Blair]

the Article is good but, as you note, there is not enough there to make a good comparison. Just received 1848, Year of Revolution by Mike Rapport. So far he takes a shorter view of history than I would like, mimicking your comments that Napoleon sowed the seed of republic throughout Europe. I suppose the same could be argued about WWII and the countries involved today, but that would be a stretch.

I will let you know what else I find.

World War I might be a better starting point for such a comparison, actually.

[Bob's World]

World War I might be a better starting point for such a comparison, actually.

Actually, the best, most recent comparison to Arab Spring is arguably the rising up of Eastern European populaces to challenge governments shaped for them by the Soviet Union.

Arab Spring may well mark the true end of the Cold War. The fall of the Berlin Wall, etc signifying the collapse of the Soviet network of controls. And now these unfolding events signifying the end of the system of controls established and nurtured by the US to Contain that Soviet threat.

Both events were set in motion by emerging information technologies that informed, empowered and emboldend populaces to act out to regain control of their own politcial destinies.

[M-A Lagrange]

Curmuggeon,

I think it could be worse looking at the arab spring as an off shoot of the Sudan split if you want to go in the direction of a parrallele with 1848 revolutions.

The parrallele could be the 1789 revolution and south sudan revolution/liberation war which generates a bloow of contestation in the arab world. I am not sure we completely understood how much this has affected the arab world mass subconscient. My point being, since the end of ottoman empire, this was the first split in arab countries.
But I might give it too much of importance.

[Bill Moore]

I recommend picking up the latest Foreign Policy magazine (JUL/AUG), on the cover "Everything You Think You Know About the Collapse of the Soviet Union is Wrong and Why it Matters in Today's Revolutionary Times."

Articles are thought provoking, and there is another series of articles that challenge the overly simplistic view that failed States are a threat to our national interests, which is well worth the read.

I suspect most serious readers of SWJ read the letters sections, but definitely read the letters to the Editor in this issue. The previous issue of Foreign Policy had authors who argued that the Arab Spring Revolt was over food (which may have been a contributing factor, but I think a minor one), but numerous experts responded challenging those arguments. It was more about individual dignity and pride, and a large number of college graduates that had no means to get ahead due to government policies, etc.

I clearly see a trend in U.S. thought if we just focus on the economy these underlying issues will fix themselves, which is why we, foolheartedly in my opinion, put so much effort into development when addressing security issues. Development plays a role at the right time, but can be very dangerous if used (even unintentionally) to further strengthen the powers that are causing the dissent to begin with.