Arab Spring vs. The Revolutions of 1848

[Bob's World]

One may find closer parallels in the Arab Revolt of 1916-18, in its push for nationalism as the Ottoman Empire collapsed (What was found instead was European Colonialism in a newly divided region, primarily between France and England, as the US demurred to participate. Ironically the British justified this neo-colonialism under the name of Wilson's "self-determination," that these new states were not yet ready to rule themselves and needed a little friendly mentoring.

Also the Arab revolt of 1936-39 in Palestine against this same British rule, aggravated by increased immigration of Jews escaping Hitler's brewing holocost in Europe.

Today too these populaces push against national governments that have come to act with impunity toward their own populaces, and also against widely held perceptions of inaproprirate degrees of external influence over those governments by a US that largely supplanted Great Britain as the most hated nation in the Middle East as we we exerted our post-WWII influence over the governments of the region and recognized the fleldgling state of Israel.

The west relies too heavily on the sea lanes and oil of this region to truly allow these populaces, this land, these governments to find their own way forward. Perhaps this time they find the success that has eluded them for centuries. (Granted such "success", as found in Iran, can still suck for the average guy, but at least it is there own suck and they don't blame the West for their current sitation).

[TheCurmudgeon]

There was one other parallel I was going to try to draw, and that was an economic one. It would be a parallel between the European powers and the influx of money from colonialism and the Arab nations and the influx of money from oil. If this parallel is relevant than it would distinguish this period from earlier (pre-1970's) revolutionary periods.

[Bob's World]

The wealth issue is interesting. I suspect there has never been a domineering power who has transferred the wealth of their people out to the governments and people they exercise dominion over like the US has. This is probably going to prove to be the fatal flaw of the American system.

Enriching the leaders of Arab nations in the way we have has certainly contributed to the discontent behind current events as well. Certainly the British model of paying pennies on the pound for Iranian oil; and forcing opium as currency upon the Chinese is no better for creating stability, but it kept British capital in Britain.

[TheCurmudgeon]

In making the comparison I am working though an argument for a idea I call the "locus of legitimacy". The locus of legitimacy, or lol if you prefer, is what concept a population sees the source of legitimacy. There are only two; the collective or communal group and the individual citizen. A government like a monarchy or other autocracy would have a communal locus of legitimacy where the people subordinate their individual wants and desires to the wants and desires of the entire group. Naked nationalism would be a good example of communal locus of legitimacy. The individual locus of legitimacy is demonstrated in real, functioning democracies and republics.

As societies prosper they transition from communal to individual, but this is not an easy process. It strikes at the heart of the values of what a society sees as right and wrong. Therefore the period of transition is filled with instability. Thailand today would be such a society. I would argue that this transition is just beginning in the Arab world. If so, and if European history is any indication of how this is likely to proceed, it is going to be a rough ride.

[tequila]

Speaking of Thailand, Josh Kurlantzick has written a couple of excellent articles on Thailand's failed democratic transition here and here:

Bangkok on the Nile.

[M-A Lagrange]

I would just make a very culturally French centric comment:
1848 revolutions are the off shoot of 1789 revolution and Napoleonian wars. Napoleon did spread 2 things all over Europ: Republic (the end of absolute Monrachy) and Nation.
To come back to Slate article, Germany was aiming to build a Nation. And did through Bismark not too long later.
France was aiming to establish a Republic against the will of neigbouring Kings and Queens of the time. Took longer cause we had a second empire in the middle of the process but reached the objective almost at the same time than Germany. (Unexpected, un forseen consequence of Bismark Germany unification?)

I am not sure than out of the domino effect their are so many parralleles between 1848 and the actual Arab Spring.
But I might be wrong.

[TheCurmudgeon]

the Article is good but, as you note, there is not enough there to make a good comparison. Just received 1848, Year of Revolution by Mike Rapport. So far he takes a shorter view of history than I would like, mimicking your comments that Napoleon sowed the seed of republic throughout Europe. I suppose the same could be argued about WWII and the countries involved today, but that would be a stretch.

I will let you know what else I find.