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Thread: Arab Spring vs. The Revolutions of 1848

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    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Default Arab Spring vs. The Revolutions of 1848

    Interesting analysis of two parallel examples of multiple revolutions - The Arab Spring and The Revolutions of 1848:

    Though inspired very generally by the ideas of liberal nationalism and democracy, the mostly middle-class demonstrators of 1848 had, like their Arab contemporaries, very different goals in different countries. In Hungary, they demanded independence from Habsburg Austria. In what is now Germany, they aimed to unify the German-speaking peoples into a single state. In France, they wanted to overthrow the monarchy (again). In some countries, revolution led to pitched battles between different ethnic groups. Others were brought to a halt by outside intervention
    http://www.slate.com/id/2285696/

    It is worth noting that the instability that was "initiated" with the revolutions of 1848 did not stabilze until nearly 100 years and two world wars latter.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-03-2011 at 08:38 PM. Reason: Citation in quotes, PM to author
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    Default Why shoul the two go hand in hand?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    It is worth noting that the instability that was "initiated" with the revolutions of 1848 did not stabilze until nearly 100 years and two world wars latter.
    Revolutions revolve around mobilization power. Governement is about organizational skills. Why should the two go hand in hand?

    Revolutions aim at de-stabilizing the existing order. Stabilizing requires an alternative that is acceptible to a large majority of the population. Why should the two go hand in hand?

    Rule of thumb: the more unpopular a regime, the easier to de-stabilize it by mobilizing against it; BUT, the more difficult to find a broadly acceptible alternative.

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    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    Revolutions aim at de-stabilizing the existing order. Stabilizing requires an alternative that is acceptible to a large majority of the population. Why should the two go hand in hand?
    I would disagree ... at least in this case. The Revolutions of 1848 were a series of revolutions in adjacent or closely related countries. The revolutions were fueled, in part, by a drive to change the existing political systems from absolute monarchies to more democratic systems. The parallels are, at least, thought provoking.

    There were other players with other interests and results varied from country to country but the ideas that were the spark for many of the revolutions ultimately changed the political face of Europe.
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    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    One may find closer parallels in the Arab Revolt of 1916-18, in its push for nationalism as the Ottoman Empire collapsed (What was found instead was European Colonialism in a newly divided region, primarily between France and England, as the US demurred to participate. Ironically the British justified this neo-colonialism under the name of Wilson's "self-determination," that these new states were not yet ready to rule themselves and needed a little friendly mentoring.

    Also the Arab revolt of 1936-39 in Palestine against this same British rule, aggravated by increased immigration of Jews escaping Hitler's brewing holocost in Europe.

    Today too these populaces push against national governments that have come to act with impunity toward their own populaces, and also against widely held perceptions of inaproprirate degrees of external influence over those governments by a US that largely supplanted Great Britain as the most hated nation in the Middle East as we we exerted our post-WWII influence over the governments of the region and recognized the fleldgling state of Israel.

    The west relies too heavily on the sea lanes and oil of this region to truly allow these populaces, this land, these governments to find their own way forward. Perhaps this time they find the success that has eluded them for centuries. (Granted such "success", as found in Iran, can still suck for the average guy, but at least it is there own suck and they don't blame the West for their current sitation).
    Robert C. Jones
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    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Default not that ealry

    There was one other parallel I was going to try to draw, and that was an economic one. It would be a parallel between the European powers and the influx of money from colonialism and the Arab nations and the influx of money from oil. If this parallel is relevant than it would distinguish this period from earlier (pre-1970's) revolutionary periods.
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    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    The wealth issue is interesting. I suspect there has never been a domineering power who has transferred the wealth of their people out to the governments and people they exercise dominion over like the US has. This is probably going to prove to be the fatal flaw of the American system.

    Enriching the leaders of Arab nations in the way we have has certainly contributed to the discontent behind current events as well. Certainly the British model of paying pennies on the pound for Iranian oil; and forcing opium as currency upon the Chinese is no better for creating stability, but it kept British capital in Britain.
    Robert C. Jones
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    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

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