19 October Washington Times - 'Dramatic Change of Direction' Coming for Iraq by Sharon Behn.

The escalating violence raking Baghdad and other Iraqi cities is pushing that nation's leaders, neighboring Arab countries and U.S. advisers to consider a dramatic change of direction in the conduct of the war.

Leaks from a U.S. task force headed by former Secretary of State James A. Baker III are contributing to the widespread sense that the Bush administration is preparing for a "course correction" in the coming months.

The options cited most frequently in Washington include the partition of Iraq into three ethnic- or faith-based regions, and a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops, with some remaining in neighboring countries to deal with major threats.

Another scenario is being discussed -- and taken seriously in Iraq -- by many of Iraq's leading political players, under which the U.S.-trained army would overthrow struggling Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and replace him with a strongman who would restore order while Washington looks the other way...

On Monday, The Washington Times reported that Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, was "more sober" and "more concerned" about the ability of the Iraqi security forces when he privately briefed senior military and civilian leaders in Washington last week. Defense sources said he had appeared more upbeat over the winter about the Iraqi security force's progress.

The sources said, however, Gen. Casey was not pessimistic and still thinks the U.S. will win in Iraq. Gen. Casey's spokesman said the general thinks the Iraqi security forces have made great progress and are on track to take over more counterinsurgency missions...

The most talked-about scenarios for a "Plan B" include:

  • Phased withdrawal: Under this plan, U.S. troops would be gradually withdrawn over a period of months and a reserve force would be redeployed elsewhere in the region.
  • Partition: Under this plan, notably advocated by Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat, Iraq would be divided into Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish regions, each enjoying a high degree of autonomy.
  • Coup in Baghdad: While given little credence in Washington, this scenario is being widely talked about in Iraq and in neighboring countries, both on the streets and among senior political and military officials...