China’s View of South Asia and the Indian Ocean

[Bob's World]

Bill,

I agree, but as you know, in good naval tradition, no one ever tells the Admrial when he has no clothes. Likewise, I don't see Admirals (or Generals) telling the President that we are long overdue for a new family of policies, relationships and strategy for the Asia-Pacific region.

When the military is handed an overly simplified bit of politicized policy guidance such as "pivot to the Pacific" their tendency is to convert that into programming validation to double down on old approaches and to finally get the clearance to buy all of the toys they have been denied during an irritating decade of fixation on non-state threats.

I think we need a much deeper analysis and comprehensive program of policy and strategy towward the Pacific. I think it is reasonable that the military should demand such top cover from civilian authorities. But I suspect the military is quite happy with simply getting a green light to push those long-delayed pet programs and to sustain the status quo.

It's not like China has built a "Great Red Fleet" and sent it on a world tour; or reached out and captured by force a string of strategic islands with deep water ports up and down our West Coast. China's activities in support of their rise to power are de minimis compared to our own. We need to make room for them at the table, or they will simply take room when the time is right. Just like we did.

[davidbfpo]

A interesting, short article from Australia's Lowy Institute on whether China wants "pearls" or hotels for its navy (PLAN). It starts with:

Will China's growing global economic interests lead it to expand its overseas military presence and capabilities?' This is a question that has been asked by policymakers, academics and strategists since China's economic growth became dependent on its ability to access energy through maritime sea lanes and overseas markets.

Link:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/..._WEEKLY&utm_me

It cites a report by a Singaporean think tank:http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/D...pectives-7.pdf

First, there is no evidence that the Chinese are currently conducting military activities at any of the String of Pearls sites. To date, PLAN Gulf of Aden task forces have not used or visited a single String of Pearls site. Second, transactions between the PLAN and host countries providing support for PLAN Gulf of Aden operations have been commercial in nature. These ports have only provided “hotel services,” replenished supplies, and served as liberty sites for visiting PLAN ships.

[Ray]

US-China rivalry looms off Russia’s Far East borders

What is at stake for Russia as U.S.-Chinese tensions continue to rise in the Pacific?

Source: Russia Beyond the Headlines - http://rbth.com/opinion/2013/03/10/u...ers_23685.html)

In the jockeying for the Pacific Rim, the shadow of Russia cannot be overlooked.

However, this makes interesting reading.

Russia, which harbors plans to exploit the economic potential of Siberia and its Far East in close cooperation with its Asian neighbors, has something to mull over — in particular, the fact that any escalation between the U.S. and China is not in its national interest and does not agree with its comprehensive program of modernization.

The author of this article is a Russian who is the director of the ASEAN Center at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) under the Russian Foreign Ministry.

[davidbfpo]

A short video interview of a British SME on Sino-Indian relations in the Indian Ocean (17 mins):http://defaeroreport.com/2016/10/14/...-indian-ocean/

Thread reopened.