Norway attacks: what happened and the implications (new title)

[AnalyticType]

It's even in english...

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011...nline-comments

[davidbfpo]

Understandably the press have started let's say more thoughtful, reflective pieces and having read through a pile I've picked out four IMHO of value.

Breivik's Swamp: Was the Oslo killer radicalized by what he read online? From FP Blog by Tony Archer, a Brit who has lived in Finland and watched the CT scene:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...swamp?page=0,0

The NYT looks at Norway's immigrant population:http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/wo..._r=2&ref=world

Which cites an Eritrean refugee:

The most important thing is what the majority thinks and the majority is fine with us.

A Norwegian professor's article notes half the immigrants are from Poland and Sweden ends with:

..we doubtless woke on Saturday morning to a slightly more paranoid, slightly less pleasant society. A society where we have become aware of our fundamental vulnerability.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/thomas-...d-consequences

Finally the 'Five Remedial Lessons from the Norwegian Tragedy' by Paul Pillar;Only the opening line for each

1. Don't jump to quick conclusions about responsibility for an attack, let alone spin out instant analysis based on such conclusions. 2. The threat that gets the most attention is not the only threat. 3. Individual incidents are not necessarily indicative of larger trends. 4. Open societies are inherently vulnerable to terrorist attack and ultimately unprotectable. 5. That a previously unknown individual (possibly with some help) could inflict so many casualties (more even than the 7/7 transit bombings in London) should put into perspective the limits of detection and prevention.

Link:http://nationalinterest.org/blog/pau...n-tragedy-5659

[Old Eagle]

I was both concerned and amused at some of the initial conclusion jumping "analyses" that accompanied the early reports from NO. STRATFOR did a better job of laying out various possible explanations, and then analyzed the impact of each on greater Europe.

[JMA]

Thanks to Wikileaks we learn that the Norwegians failed to take the threat of terrorism seriously.

WikiLeaks files show Norway unprepared for terror attack

It seems that it always takes a tragedy before a country (the politicians, security services and the people) starts to get serious about the diverse terrorist threat it faces.

[Dayuhan]

Useful comment, from Foreign Affairs:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...unter-jihadism

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...lims-of-norway

Don't really need Wikileaks to see that Norway wasn't taking terrorist threats very seriously, as public documents make it clear that the authorities saw very little risk. Cited in the above:

The PST -- the Norwegian Police Security Force, somewhat comparable to the British MI5 -- concluded in its most recent publicly available risk analysis, published in February, that right-wing extremists posed “no serious threat.”

[Bill Moore]

The PST -- the Norwegian Police Security Force, somewhat comparable to the British MI5 -- concluded in its most recent publicly available risk analysis, published in February, that right-wing extremists posed “no serious threat.”

Dayuhan, I am in no position to know what the right wing threat is in Norway, but I also don't think one madman (a condition that tends to manifest itself in every nation) constitutes a grave threat trend. If there are additional planned or actual attacks conducted by the far right indicating a conspiracy then the threat would be high in my view.

[JMA]

Dayuhan, I am in no position to know what the right wing threat is in Norway, but I also don't think one madman (a condition that tends to manifest itself in every nation) constitutes a grave threat trend. If there are additional planned or actual attacks conducted by the far right indicating a conspiracy then the threat would be high in my view.

Well they have now had their wake up call.

I guess that as they saw “no serious threat” they would have been unprepared for any such eventuality and as such the criticism of the response time for armed police to arrive at the island is unfair given the state of readiness the police would have been at. I suggest that under the circumstances the response was good (given the distraction of the bomb blast and all).

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan, I am in no position to know what the right wing threat is in Norway, but I also don't think one madman (a condition that tends to manifest itself in every nation) constitutes a grave threat trend. If there are additional planned or actual attacks conducted by the far right indicating a conspiracy then the threat would be high in my view.

Didn't mean to suggest that the analysis was deficient - based on the information they would have had available it was probably a reasonable conclusion - only that it was no secret, and that you wouldn't need Wikileaks to be aware of it.

[Fuchs]

Thanks to Wikileaks we learn that the Norwegians failed to take the threat of terrorism seriously.

Really?

Even after this, safety measures on one of the many, many Norwegian ferries are more important than CT.

Resources (including attention) need to be allocated rationally, not based on fear.

[Firn]

'The Anders Breivik I knew'

And, more importantly, I have never felt the kind of rage or hate he must have had inside him.

I still cannot understand the source of all that hate.

Most people think of him now as a monster.

I still remember his smile and his jokes.

I remember how Anders would sometimes come up to you from behind, and jokingly yell "Kra!" in your ear - just for a good-hearted scare.

It was his signature greeting in the school yard back then.

Basically, he was not that much out of the ordinary.

A very well written and thoughtful article written by somebody who was his classmate and crossed Anders paths twice that day.

[davidbfpo]

A curious press report:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...f-weapons.html