Turkey: what is going on?

[Fuchs]

Keep in mind some if not most of the Western-like modernisation of the Turkish state in the last decade or more was done in order to conform enough to the EU for becoming a member.

Bluntly stated, enough Europeans don't want the Turks to join - the EU is already very diverse without growing beyond actual occidental Europe. It's having its issues and doesn't need more.

The membership of Cyprus coupled with the basically unresolved conflict on Cyprus basically ensured that if Greece doesn't veto, Cyprus does and if Cyprus doesn't, some other veto will be found.

So the Turks basically gave up the idea of joining the EU and Erdogan et al instead began to develop Turkey as a comeback great power with an identity between Europe, Arab countries and Central Asian turk nations.

With Turkey going its own way, he apparently also figured that Turkey can have its own interpretation of what a modern state is like and doesn't need to accept Western ideas on this at face value.


The problem in Turkey is in my opinion a lack of political and probably also media plurality. It's either AKP or the pro-military autocrats IIRC, and there should really be a third choice which could form a coalition with both and keep the political culture from going too far towards either extreme.
I'm not well-informed on their party landscape, though.

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to a "lurker" for this article, published by the Hudson Institute, 'The Gulen Movement in Azerbaijan' by Fuad Aliyev:http://www.currenttrends.org/researc...-in-azerbaijan

The conclusion starts with:

The Glen movement has arguably emerged as the most successful movement in Azerbaijans unfolding Islamic revival. No other Islamic movement in Azerbaijan can claim such an extensive organization or level of influence in business, charity, lobbying and, above all, in the field of education. Moreover, the movement has managed to acquire this influence without revealing its ideological mission. This has, not surprisingly, generated considerable suspicion of its motives. And despite its reputation as a post- Islamist movement that seeks integration with society, it is nonetheless still widely perceived as having a religious-political agenda.

Not sure if there is an Azerbaijan thread, so placed here.

[davidbfpo]

It is more than admirals, but The Economist provides an update on the apparent emasculation of the Turkish military by the civilian government. It starts with:

..has nobody to command its navy. Just such a situation looms in Turkey after this week’s resignation of Admiral Nusret Guner, the number two in the navy who was expected to take over when its incumbent head steps down in August. There are no other qualified candidates, not least because more than half of Turkey’s admirals are in jail...

Link:http://www.economist.com/news/europe...d_his_generals

[davidbfpo]

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan did something quite symbolic last weekend: He visited the hospitalized ex-general Ergin Saygun, who was recently sentenced to 18 years in prison for a military coup plot against Erdoğan’s own government. Both Saygun, who had undergone a heart operation just hours after the postponing of his sentence, and his family were positively surprised. Many others were puzzled.

Link:http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/lov...=238&nid=40968

[davidbfpo]

In August 2011 the contest between the politicians and generals appeared to end with the 'Sledgehammer' criminal charges being laid against over two hundred suspects (see Posts 33-35). A 2014 BBC report after earlier trials and appeals:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24457491

Today on Twitter a US observer tweeted:

Sledgehammer saga ends as Turkish court acquits all defendants, citing strong suspicion of fake evidence.

One I think Turksih report:http://www.worldbulletin.net/turkey/...tary-coup-case

Curiously and purely by coincidence attention has been diverted, including the BBC, to two quite different news stories. First a near nation-wide electricity outage:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32130567

Then a siege in Istanbul, where a banned Marxist-Leninist group DHKP-C, have seized a state prosecutor in a court building. News report:http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/prose...bjBrb2xtdF8ifQ

Or the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32129012

Background reading on this group, suitably Byzantine:http://america.aljazeera.com/article...oodarrows.html

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to WoTR for this commentary:

Most observers of Turkey have reduced every single problem facing Turkey to one factor: Erdogan, its president. He is certainly a troubling leader, but Turkey's trials run far deeper than one man.

Link:http://warontherocks.com/2015/09/the...-telling-you/?

A taster:

We are looking at a multi-player game of chicken where different actors are speeding toward each other with no intention to step on the brakes. Erdogan is driving the largest vehicle, but it takes more than one driver to cause a pileup.

[davidbfpo]

A somewhat surprising opinion column in the NYT, by an American SME, who writes that the military are now back in favour with President Erdogan:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/12/op...y-rulers.html?