Turkey: what is going on?

[tequila]

Erdogan declines to run for Turkish presidency.

[wm]

The interesting question that comes to my mind is whether his alternative, Gul, is just a proxy/figurehead. They both are allegedly Islamists/Islamic fundamentalists; each man's wife is known for wearing the head scarf.

I imagine there is some interesting talk around the chey house tavla boards.

[tequila]

NYTIMES report.

Turkey’s majority political party today chose a prominent leader with an Islamic background to compete for the presidency, a move expected to extend the party’s reach into the heart of Turkey’s secular establishment — and boost a new class of self-described Muslim moderates — for the first time in this country’s history.

The choice of Abdullah Gul, 56, the affable, English-speaking foreign minister who is Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest political ally, is expected to be confirmed by parliament in several rounds of voting that begin on Friday.

Turkey is a Muslim country, but its state, set up in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, is strictly secular, and the presidency is its most important office. The selection of Mr. Gul, whose wife wears a head scarf, is not likely to sit well with secular Turks, some of whom worry that their lifestyles — drinking alcohol, wearing miniskirts, and swimming in co-ed pools — could eventually be in danger.

Mr. Gul, an agile reformer who has long been his party’s public face abroad, nodded to those concerns in a press conference in Ankara after his nomination today, saying, “Our differences are our richness.” His candidacy was a minor concession. The choice most distasteful to the secular establishment was Mr. Erdogan himself, who deftly bowed out.

...

“These are the new forces, the new social powers,” said Ali Bulac, a columnist for a conservative, mainstream newspaper in Istanbul. “They are very devout. They don’t drink. They don’t gamble. They don’t take holidays.”

“They are loaded with a huge energy.” he added. “This energy has been blocked by the state.”

That energy has helped drive a spectacular economic boom in Turkey. In the country’s two largest cities, progress dazzles. Shiny new fuel-efficient taxis zip down tulip-lined streets. New parks have opened. The air is no longer polluted. The economy has doubled in size in the four years since the AK party came to power, a growth spurt that was kept on track by its strict adherence to an economic program prescribed by the International Monetary Fund ...

This picture of an AK Party rally surprised me. Not many Arab Islamists feature female background dancers.

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Eurasia Monitor, 12 Oct 07:

ECHR Ruling Highlights Discrimination Suffered by Turkey's Alevi Minority

The October 9 ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), stating that compulsory religious instruction in Turkey violates the rights of religious minorities, has highlighted the discrimination suffered by the country’s substantial Alevi community (Aksam, Milliyet, Radikal, October 10)....

....Alevis have traditionally been regarded with suspicion by Turkey’s Sunni Muslim majority and suffered both discrimination and occasional pogroms. In July 1993 37 people were killed when a Sunni Muslim mob set fire to a hotel in the Anatolian city of Sivas that was hosting an Alevi cultural festival. Although it fielded a few token Alevi candidates in the July 22 general election, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is an almost exclusively Sunni Muslim . Both publicly and privately, leading AKP members have frequently refused to recognize Alevism as a distinct religious tradition, regarding Alevis as renegade Sunnis rather than having an identity in their own right. In September 2005, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly dismissed Alevism as a culture rather than a religion and said that the only place for prayer was a mosque.....

My wife is an Alevi Kurd from the eastern part of Sivas province in Turkey (right up against the border with Erzincan province, for those who care about such matters). We actually stayed at that very hotel in Sivas not a week prior to the incident.

The article actually puts it pretty mildly. Among many Sunni Turks there is a real depth of prejudice and bigotry against those who are known to be Alevis in Turkey, and many nasty myths spread around about them in the country. The one that really angers the Alevis is the one about "mum söndü" (the candle went out) - Some Sunni Turks like to relate that the Alevi have a ceremony where they gather together in the evening, they put out the candles, and then engage in incestuous and adulterous orgies. In the culture, this goes beyond being an extreme insult, the tale debasing Alevi family and personal honor.

[wm]

A pretty notable piece written for the Brookings Institute here. While posted in November 2005, it has a lot of explantory power IMO.

Today, more than two years after the invasion of Iraq, Turkey has yet to lose its potential to disappoint Washington. As the second Bush administration is stepping up its profreedom rhetoric in the Middle East, it is quite disconcerting that the most democratic Muslim country in the region shows no signs of solidarity with the United States. Quite the opposite, Turkey is often in the news for its rampant anti-Americanism and solidarity with Bashar's Syria. Polls after polls confirm that growing numbers of Turks perceive their NATO ally more as a national security threat, rather than a strategic partner. One of the flashiest symptoms of Turkish distrust towards the United States is the best-selling novel in the country, which depicts a Turkish-American war over Kirkuk in northern Iraq.

What went wrong? Why has Turkey become the most anti-American country in the West? One needs to go beyond the generic and global phenomenon of Bush-bashing in order to fully grasp the dynamics behind Turkish anti-Americanism. In many ways, Turkey is a sui-generis case. Recent polls illustrate that while anti-Americanism is in relative decline in Europe, the trend in Turkey is in the opposite direction. Moreover, unlike past domestic trends, the current wave of anti-Americanism in Turkey seems to be embraced by all segments of Turkish society. For all these reasons, the Turkish case needs to be analyzed in a historical and comparative perspective. This essay is an attempt to do so.

[goesh]

If the Turks want Islam to be a cornerstone of their strategic thinking, fine, so be it. It's a hell of alot easier to tighten our bond with the Kurds than it is to put up with their BS. Turkey has yet to be punished for their refusal to allow the 3rd ID to roll South out of Turkey during the invasion after so much logistical energy and money was expended on said plan. That cost us some lives and treasure and they need to look closer at Afghan and truly see what comes across the Paki border to wreak havoc and see the same dynamic on their Southern flank waiting to explode up their Turkish a**es.

[tequila]

If the Turks want Islam to be a cornerstone of their strategic thinking, fine, so be it.

Actually it is the secular nationalist parties and the avowedly secular military which are most eager to smash the Kurds. The Turkish Islamists are generally seen by the secularists as far too pro-Kurdish and pro-American, as seen in this editorial.

It's a hell of alot easier to tighten our bond with the Kurds than it is to put up with their BS. Turkey has yet to be punished for their refusal to allow the 3rd ID to roll South out of Turkey during the invasion after so much logistical energy and money was expended on said plan. That cost us some lives and treasure and they need to look closer at Afghan and truly see what comes across the Paki border to wreak havoc and see the same dynamic on their Southern flank waiting to explode up their Turkish a**es.

As far as value as allies go, I think throwing over the Turks for the KRG has about as much strategic value as jettisoning Britain in return for Ireland.