Turkey: what is going on?

[SWJ Blog]

The Young Ataturk: From Ottoman Soldier to Statesman of Turkey

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[SWJ Blog]

Turkey Teetering on the Razor`s Edge of Terror: The Istanbul Ataturk Airport Attacks

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[Condor]

Here we go...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...gunfire-ankara

[Azor]

Where is Outlaw 09 on this? I expected up-to-the-minute translated social media feeds!

[davidbfpo]

The BBC News has several reports and comments. I am no expert on Turkey, let alone its military, but the attempted coup was a disaster before it started. The President was not "at home" and was able to broadcast a call for supporters to take to the streets - amplified by CNN. My recollection is that previous coups have been without initial bloodshed and undertaken by all the high command.

It is almost as if the plotters have achieved what the AKP and President Erdogan have been unable to do - unify everyone behind them.

That the police arrested the soldiers involved is very different, IIRC the police have always been "second class" to the military and will the accused now appear in civilian courts?

[OUTLAW 09]

Where is Outlaw 09 on this? I expected up-to-the-minute translated social media feeds!

Have enough to do with Ukraine and Syria.....while Erdogan was democratically elected does not mean I fully support every action he has taken in the last four years....

[OUTLAW 09]

Erdogan blames a guy from the Poconos for Turkey coup. Forget Dugin was in Ankara pushing Turkey closer to Russia, away from US/NATO "enemy"

[OUTLAW 09]

Erdogan supporter with sign of extreme right-wing Grey Wolves posing against lynched dead soldier.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...BTW this interests me more......


More we know what has followed after so called #TurkeyCoupAttemp more reasons we have to think the Coup was real...& #Erdogan was behind it.

Some 'pro coup' soldiers, now in custody, reportedly thought #Turkey coup attempt was just an exercise - AP

1st thing Turkey coup plotters did was take over TV station. Remember Russia's Strelkov did same in Donetsk #Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...arade-captives …

TurkeyCoup
- 265 dead
- 1600+ injured
- 3000+ soldiers arrested
- 2700+ judges arrested
- US airbase closed
- Coup ongoing in some areas

After Incirlik airbase has been shut down, multiple Russian airstrikes target Azaz in north rural #Aleppo, #Syria, several civilians killed

BREAKING: Turkish Defence Minister says it is too early to say that a possibility of a military coup is totally suppressed - @ragipsoylu
Eve 1: "We finished them."
Eve 2: "Ah, no, we didn't yet."
Eve 3: "Give us 6 more months." ?!

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW...this US Senator is an avid Assad supporter.....

As an American...cannot say much about my own elected officials these days as it appears they really know nothing about the world we all live in.....

Senator Dick Black
‏@SenRichardBlack
Good news of the day: Military attempting to oust Turkish dictator #Erdogan #TheManWhoWouldBeHitlerAssad's friend Senator Dick praises Turkey military coup against elected government.

A US senator praising a military coup against a legally and democratically elected official makes one think just how democratic this Senator really is...???

Even I have my differences with where Erdogan is headed but he still is in the eyes of his civil society a democratically elected official..and that has to be respected at all costs......

AND even non Erdogan supporters went into the streets to support the government WHY.... the Turkish civil society differently remembers what it was like to live under a military dictatorship....

Assad fights people with tanks
Erdogan fights tanks with people

Pro #Assad gang celebrated #TurkeyCoup and now accuse civilians of wrongfully put down the military. Cynics. https://twitter.com/shehabifares/sta...63708729516036 …

[OUTLAW 09]

Famous Syrian rebel singer-turned-commander in a pro-govt protest in Turkey shouting against Assad. An apt metaphor.

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
I can't emphasize enough how this mess emanates from a flawed perception of Erdogan's popularity, in Turkey & beyond. Media created a bubble

[OUTLAW 09]

Erdogan: "US have to give us #Gulen if we are to cooperate together." In meantime, 1,500 Americans at #Incirlik can't go in, out or fly.

BREAKING: Erdoğan speaks live, calls U.S to hand over Fethullah Gulen if U.S is strategic ally - @CNNTURK_ENG

Remarkable demand from a so called NATO ally......

Haaretz.com
✔ @haaretzcom Kerry: Turkey would have to prove wrongdoing by Gulen for U.S. to extradite him
http://htz.li/61H #TurkeyCoup

ISIS didn't waste time: taking advantage of Incirlik Airbase shutdown it is advancing in #Manbij-N. #Raqqa w/ several assaults vs #SDF/#YPG

Manbij: #ISIS has started a new offensive against #YPG around #Manbij from multiple axis. #ISIS fighters advancing now.

Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
From AKP/Erdogan POV, U.S. is: supporting the PKK, came in very late to support the govt against a coup, and refuses to hand over Gulen.

Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Should say: I have seen no evidence Gulen had anything to do with the coup attempt (or any of the other conspiracies he's accused of).

Incirik Air Base, housing 90 US nuclear weapons, shut off from power.
http://fb.me/4iIr10Rog

[OUTLAW 09]

NOTICE anything with this comment when you read the above.....???

Dugin in Ankara day b4 coup: Turkey & Russia have same enemy–US hegemony & it's instrument radical islamic terrorism http://katehon.com/news/alexander-du...ference-ankara …

BREAKING: Secretary of Labor Süleyman Soylu live on news channel Haberturk: "The US is behind this coup"

Dugin gave speech in Ankara yesterday, today says Turkey "forever Eurasian" after coup. Bad feeling about this.
https://twitter.com/JvanDijkS/status/754303063373086721 …

THIS is critical to understand......as it ties nicely into Dugin's comments.....

The Russian narrative re: Turkish coup seems perfectly coordinate among all RU storytellers
http://katehon.com/agenda/pro-american-coup-turkey …

[AdamG]

Separate thread for maximum visibility.
Posted in this forum because of the implications from the content.
Podcast won't be available until something like 12 hours after this post.

The fallout from last month's failed coup in Turkey against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has lead to the detainment and firing of around 67,000 officials across nearly every aspect of Turkish society.

Not included in that number is the man accused of being responsible for every one of them, the alleged leader of the coup: Fetullah Gulen, a reclusive Muslim cleric living in self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania since 1999.

A former ally of President Erdoğan until 2013, Gulen is the founder of the Hizmet movement and the organization the Alliance for Shared Values, which teaches a form of Islam that embraces science, education, and interfaith dialogue. He's earned millions of followers both in Turkey and internationally, and is said to also have established around 800 schools worldwide, from Africa to right here in the United States.

Robert Amsterdam, a founding partner of Amsterdam & Partners, is currently working with the Turkish government on its extradition case against Gulen. The Turkish government wants extradition for allegedly inspiring the coup, but Amsterdam says that Gulen's entrenchment in the American political and education system is reason enough to prosecute.

http://www.wnyc.org/story/erdogans-american-lawyer/

[davidbfpo]

An interesting choice of lawyer - hired by Turkey - with human rights cases fought:http://www.amsterdamandpartners.com/...ert-amsterdam/

On HR their website says:

Amsterdam & Partners is committed to holding states accountable for their violations of the human rights of their citizens and residents. Through high-profile political advocacy, engagement with international and regional institutions, and collaboration with human rights organisations, the firm continues to challenge the abuse of state power on behalf of affected individuals and organisations.

There is a US-Turkey extradition treaty and this article explains briefly what is required. One British extradition lawyer opinion is that Gulen could be extradited, but points out an application would fail in Europe due to HR issues:http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/an...tion-641832093

[Azor]

Could this also be a ploy by Russia to repeat the Kennedy-Khrushchev deal on removing the Jupiter IRBM from Turkey after the Cuba Crisis? The US nuclear warheads are all bombs and some have argued for their removal recently, IIRC in WoTR. An astute move if true.

That would be a useless move. Not only are the bombs being withdrawn to Romania due to the coup d'etat attempt, but a Russian provocation of that nature would result in the following:

1. US deployment of tactical nuclear cruise missiles launched from the air or sea that are not bound by the INF Treaty or New START.

2. A guarantee that the LRSO will be developed and fielded.

3. Redeployment of nuclear gravity bombs to US Carrier Strike Groups.

4. Massive deployment of Aegis Ashore, Patriots and THAAD throughout NATO.

5. Repeated public condemnation.

6. French and British development of tactical nuclear weapons.

[Azor]

Azor,

Thanks for the far from confirming links.

These are the WoTR articles I spotted. In June 2016, before the coup attempt, there was this one:https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/nu...son-you-think/

In July 2016, after the coup, this:https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/ar...-under-threat/

Thanks David.

US nuclear deployments are classified as a rule, so while FP and WOTR have valid points, they simply don't know.

In all likelihood, the US was considering removing the bombs prior to the coup attempt and after the shootdown.

Note that these weapons may simply be withdrawn entirely. They can be re-deployed on carriers, which would be far more politically simple...

[Azor]

Citing Azor in part:

Thanks for this update, I'd missed that being announced. Somewhat surprised Romania was chosen given Russian sensitivity about "NATO on our borders" and will the USAF deploy the strike aircraft to deliver the nukes? Somehow I doubt the Rumanian AF has capable aircraft, let alone the training needed.

Have you got reference(s) for this move?

The sources were rather weak, David, and I wouldn't say that Romania is a permanent home for these bombs.

They may well be permanently stationed in Western Europe or placed in reserve in the US.

However, I can't see them remaining at Incirlik given Turkey's instability.

Sources:

• https://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...ey-to-romania/
  
• http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/19/...ey-to-romania/

[Azor]

Azor,

Thanks for the far from confirming links.

These are the WoTR articles I spotted. In June 2016, before the coup attempt, there was this one:https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/nu...son-you-think/

In July 2016, after the coup, this:https://warontherocks.com/2016/07/ar...-under-threat/

Hello David,

See recent article by Paul Iddon at War is Boring: https://warisboring.com/the-pentagon...629#.n91y4kr48

Iddon concluded that Incirlik is a, "notoriously unreliable base for the American military in a volatile region". He maintains that the US still has nuclear weapons at the base as of January 1, 2017, but does not provide any source for this detail.

To be honest, I would not be surprised if the US had secretly removed its nuclear weapons from Incirlik years ago, and well before the US-Turkish disagreements over Syria or the attempted coup.

Firstly, the US would not publicize that information due to the political ramifications of seeming to be mistrustful of Turkey and withdrawing extended deterrence.

Secondly, the procedure could have been carried out secretly as far as I can tell, over a period of weeks or months (feel free to correct me if I am mistaken).

Thirdly, another alternative would be to secretly deactivate the bombs whilst deploying others to CAWs.

[davidbfpo]

I recently posed the questions around the US nuclear weapons @ Incirlik AFB, in south-east Turkey to a SME on such matters and below are their remarks:

The driver of having US nuclear bombs stored in Turkey has until recently been the Turks wanting re-assurance against the Russians. Indeed the other NATO states with weapons on their territory did so to keep the Turks happy and satisfied that they would be safe from Russian attack, rather than to enhance the security of the remaining NATO states. I had some dealings with officials over this issue in the mid-2000s, and it was clear that the US bombs stored in the UK had been removed at a date in that period which has never been made public, largely to keep the Turks happy.

In current circumstances I would suspect that if the US still has nuclear bombs in Turkey, they are practice ones not operational ones.

As the Turks have no obvious ability to have an instant capability to convert their F-16s and pilots into nuclear weapon vehicles, and no likelihood of the US giving the Turks access to their stores to verify the US weapons are active, or capable of being made active in a short period of time, the question of whether they are or are not active is anyone's guess. Judging by what has happened at other NATO nuclear bases, I would say they have up to the last five years all been at a very low level of readiness for use. But we are now in 2017 rather than 2010.

My judgement is that Trump may for monetary reasons chose to pull all the US nuclear weapons out of Europe within the next few weeks including those that may be in Turkey. The interesting question will be the price he will demand for doing it from Putin.

Note I have moved the posts relevant to this matter from the 2017 Syrian War thread to this thread on Turkey.