Erdogan and Daesh
I have seen you and Crowbat discuss Russia’s accusation that Erdogan was in league with Daesh, in the aftermath of the Su-24 shootdown, on the Syria thread. Both of you claimed that Erdogan was directly supporting Muslim Brotherhood-inspired rebel units in Syria, in addition to the FSA, and that because he believed that the PYD-PKK was more of a threat to Turkey, he resisted efforts to target Daesh forces that were in contact with the Assadists and the PYD. However, your more recent comments on this thread suggest complicity if not conspiracy with Daesh rather than turning a blind eye due to prioritizing the PYD and Assad.
Erdogan and Putin
It took Erdogan over 6 months to apologize to Putin for the Su-24 shootdown, before which he was defiant. Yet soon after the incident, the Turkish-Kurdish conflict flared up significantly, which I have always assumed was at Moscow’s instigation (arms and funding) and the PYD began to receive close-air support from the Russians in Syria. After months of this and increasing tensions with secularists in the military, Erdogan apologizes to Putin who quickly re-establish ties as if months of anti-Turkish propaganda and economic measures had never happened, and Erdogan turns to rooting out opposition in the military. Interestingly, the Mayor of Ankara seems almost willing to extradite the F-16 pilots to Russia now that they have been caught up in the counter-coup dragnet (
http://tass.ru/en/world/889217)
Back to the Coup
It sounds more and more like the coup was a desperate move by a small military faction that did not have widespread popular or military support, and which due to their bungling ended up bringing the Islamists’ wrath down. Only a few dozen soldiers seemed prepared to kill for the coup and the regiment or brigade deployed to seize vital infrastructure was unaware of its true mission and unprepared to use force to accomplish it.
Do you believe those goofs at “Newsbud” that the US was behind the coup? So MSNBC reports a rumor that Erdogan is seeking asylum in Germany and then the UK and that constitutes support for the coup?
If the US had wanted to overthrow Erdogan it could have deployed special forces from Incirlik to help the plotters capture the AKP leadership, and used electronic and cyberwarfare capabilities to disrupt social media and communication among AKP loyalists.
Do you have a source for what the Chief General’s Aide-de-Camp said?
It sounds as though the AKP and Erdogan were well-informed that a coup was possible prior to the August 2016 meeting of the Supreme Military Council, during which further purges similar to Ergenekon were expected. The fact that the coup had so little support within the military but that so many of the leadership had been arrested could be an issue more of complicity rather than conspiracy (which seemed to be limited to colonels and below). Basically, Erdogan considers any general officer who did not actively work against the coup to be treasonous…
If Erdogan was aware, then he could have taken measures earlier rather than allow this deadly theater to unfold in the streets and skies above Istanbul and Ankara.
The suggestion that Turkey may be suspended from NATO is an interesting one. Quite frankly, I think that NATO views Erdogan as a liability and the reduced footprint in Turkey, whether the withdrawn F-15s or Patriot batteries, is indicative of a desire to reduce risk. I would not be surprised if the tactical nuclear bombs at Incirlik have already been moved secretly or are in the process of being moved.
Question – how much of Erdogan’s purge is legal? I know that if a similar mutiny or attempted coup occurred in the United States, the POTUS could not simply arrest and sack a professor in Alaska that he disliked…
Originally Posted by Azor
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