What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

Reading Stephen Tankel's book on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) I found references to prior information being given to the US authorities on David Headley, he Pakistani-American, by his wives, to officials in the USA, August 2005 and Pakistan, in 2007. The DNI later ordered a review, result not known to Tankel.

The original source was ProPublica, an investigative journalism site:http://www.propublica.org/article/ne...meline-in-mumb

Note this article refers to three other sources, friends or relatives, giving information.

I shall leave aside the many issues that arise, notably intelligence management decision-making and the value of such information.

One caller never had an update to his call. I know from my experience feedback is vital and can generate additional calls.

[davidbfpo]

Taken from a wider review of the 'Muslim 'Homegrown' Terrorism in the United States: How Serious Is the Threat?' which appears in the fall 2011 issue of International Security, from the Belfer Centre; with my emphasis:

In fact, the evidence suggests that engaging in terrorist activity in the United States carries a serious risk of exposure. First, although difficult to quantify, societal awareness about terrorism has grown considerably over the years. In October 2010, for example, members of a Hawaiian mosque reported to authorities a new member whose recent move to the area raised their suspicions. Contrast this with the hospitality and no-questions-asked reception that the Muslim community in San Diego gave to two of the September 11 hijackers in the months preceding the attacks. Additionally, over the past decade, alert citizens otherwise unacquainted with the would-be perpetrators have reported apparent terrorist activity involving American Muslims to authorities. Second, as the result of both a significant investment in grassroots counterterrorism efforts spanning the federal, state, and local levels as well as expanded prerogatives such as the availability of FBI assessments, would-be terrorists must contend with an increasingly sophisticated monitoring and investigative apparatus. Third, American Muslim communities have demonstrated a willingness to report aspiring terrorists in their midst—a dynamic that, according to several studies, has occurred in more than 20 percent of terrorism-related cases. Consider that Shahzad is the only homegrown Muslim terrorist unknown to authorities before he tried to execute his plot.

Link:http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/...ed_states.html

[davidbfpo]

Found on a previously unheard of blogsite:

...there were 161,948 suspicious activity files in the classified Guardian database, mostly leads from FBI headquarters and state field offices. Two years ago, the bureau set up an unclassified section of the database so state and local agencies could send in suspicious incident reports and review those submitted by their counterparts in other states. Some 890 state and local agencies have sent in 7,197 reports so far. And the results? Five arrests and NO convictions.

“Ninety-nine percent doesn’t pan out or lead to anything” said Richard Lambert Jr., the special agent in charge of the FBI’s Knoxville office. “But we’re happy to wade through these things.”

No, it’s not 99% doesn’t pan out…It’s 99.99997% that doesn’t pan out

Link:http://twshiloh.com/?p=4574 and originally in the WaPo 'Top Secret America' articles.

[davidbfpo]

From a longer article on a current UK terrorism trial; which covers other points, notably being self-radicalised:

Police were called to their marital home in Foster Street, Oldham, but as officers dealt with the domestic dispute and with Shasta still upset and worked up, a "wholly unexpected turn of events occurred", Miss Cheema said.

"A member of her family, one of her brothers, told the police, in Shasta Khan's presence, 'We have something that I think might be interesting to you, I think he's a home-grown terrorist'."

The wife then took the opportunity to "spill the beans" and cause "serious trouble" for her husband - but left out her own alleged involvement in any terror offences.

Link:http://www.asianimage.co.uk/news/977...rror_offences/

It's a classic, imagine the attending officer calling back "Can I have the CT police here".

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to Stratfor giving a hint to the role of the public in the case of Naser Jason Abdo:

planning to attack a restaurant frequented by soldiers from Fort Hood (in July 2011)

The public's role:

On July 27, 2011, Abdo raised the suspicion of the staff of "Guns Galore" in Killeen Texas by buying an unusually large amount of smokeless gunpowder, three boxes of shotgun ammunition and a magazine for a pistol. A clerk notified the Killeen Police Department who, in turn, tracked Abdo to the America's Best Value Inn and Suites via the taxi that he had taken to make his purchase. Guns Galore was the store in which Nidal Malik Hasan bought a pistol used in the Fort Hood shootings.

Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naser_Jason_Abdo

I expect the Guns Galore staff and management were all too aware of the purchases being suspicious, even allowing for a two year gap. Would another local gun store have done the same thing?

[davidbfpo]

Within a far wider report by Clints Watts, aka CWOT on SWC, there is this passage, with my emphasis:

U.S. law enforcement has dramatically increased its community-oriented policing strategies with the Muslim community leading to increased detection and preemption of extremism. However, as noted by Kurzman and Jenkins, the past decade’s incidents of MuslimAmerican extremism provide no particular profile and provide no basis to conclude that extremists will reside in Muslim communities. In addition, if an extremist does reside in a Muslim community, there is no reason to assume that the Muslim community will be aware of potential extremists in their midst.

Link and the passage is on pg. 11:http://www.fpri.org/pubs/2012/201208...calization.pdf

[davidbfpo]

The reverse of public sources and my error in not posting before today.

Nigel Inkster, ex-No.2 at SIS, in an article in 'Survival' a year ago made an interesting comment on the role of US intelligence in all UK CT investigations:

Referring to the USA acting as 'counter-terrorism collector of first resort to the international community. Of the many plots that Western European services disrupted between 2001 and the present, there was none which did not benefit from game-changing US intelligence....there is no doubt that the US did more to make Europe safe from terrorism that Europe was able to do for itself'.

From: 'In 9/11/11: A Decade of Intelligence', Survival December 2011-January 2012, pgs. 5-12 (quote pg.10).