What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[Bill Moore]

David, this should be an interesting and worthwhile line of study that potentially could increase the effectiveness of our unofficial civilian surveillance methods (meaning civilians looking for suspicious activity, not law enforcement intruding in civilian lives without just cause). Our public (in the U.S.) is sensitized to varying degrees to detect suspicious behavior, yet that could still be enhanced through public awareness programs (training for detecting both terrorist and criminal pre-execution behaviors). Although much improved since 9/11, our biggest challenge seems to be law enforcement's ability to receive these reports and fuse these reports in a common database (that local, state and federal can all access), and then have enough trained analysts to connect the dots. Fortunately, when want to be terrorists are dumb enough to buy certain materials and ask questions that makes the hair on the back of your neck raise, that is normally enough to prompt local law enforcement to investigate. For terrorists and criminals that are more sophisticated, like the 9/11 terrorists, the key is connecting the fuzzy dots.

[davidbfpo]

This is copied from a post added 23/1/10 to a thread on Turkey's experience.

One of the few open source articles that provides some context for the role of the public is from Turkey:http://ccj.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/23/2/142 (Behind a pay wall, although I have a copy).

In November 2003, a series of coordinated suicide bombings were carried out by al-Qaeda in Istanbul. The targets represented Israel and the West, including two synagogues, an HSBC bank, and the British consulate. The attacks resulted in 68 deaths and more than 700 injured. The investigation and arrests that ensued revealed that the network involved in the bombings had trained in Afghanistan. Of particular interest was the interpersonal web that grew from the four suicide bombers as well as the range of materials confiscated in the investigation. (My emphasis)Specifically, nearly 300 people were identified who had some knowledge of the planned attack. Of these, 48 were viewed as hard-core committed terrorists, leaving approximately 250 community members who were not ideologically committed to al-Qaeda’s goals and who had some information that potentially could have been used in preventive action.

Chilling and possibly a reason why it is the only example in the public domain I know of, with numbers.

[davidbfpo]

In June 2011 a Saudi diplomat at a lecture stated:

The most effective tool is the citizen in the neighbourhood and their reports to the police. That tip-off starts the process and this has been a tremendous tool for the KSA, especially since 2006'.

[davidbfpo]

In November 2005 after the 7/7 bombings Sir Ian Blair, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, in the Richard Dimbleby Lecture, stated:

It is not the police and the intelligence agencies who will defeat crime and terror and anti-social behaviour; it is communities.

He also referred to the role of the public, acknowledging the information came after the 21/7 attacks:

A local authority worker identified the flat, which three men shown on the CCTV images had frequented: this was the bomb factory. However, he also mentioned that he had found dozens of empty peroxide bottles in the waste bins. Had we had one of our neighbourhood policing teams in place then he probably would have told us about what he had found. Peroxide is the basis of the bombs.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pre...dimbleby.shtml

[Bill Moore]

It is not the police and the intelligence agencies who will defeat crime and terror and anti-social behaviour; it is communities.

True if:

A formal or informal community watch is organized (either self organized or organized by local government officials) and sensitized to detect and report on certain types of behaviors.

Reports are acted upon by the appropriate officials.

This relatively simple and cost effective organization (formal/informal) would do more to limit terrorist and criminal freedom of movement than the billions we're spending now on technical surveillance.

[Dayuhan]

I know of a case (not in the US) in which a significant plot that was broken up due to specific intelligence was publicly attributed to a combination of police work and accident... presumably to avoid revealing or hinting at the source of the intel. I would not be surprised if this has happened in other cases, though it would be difficult to confirm.

[davidbfpo]

Recently there were a series of arrests in Birmingham (UK), which led to six men being charged regarding a planned bombing campaign; for some background and details see: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15054790

What is noteworthy - for this thread - is that the senior police officer responsible has publicly commented:

The actual case does not rely upon what local people were telling us, that came later - afterwards and we are grateful for that.

Some, if not all of those arrested were known in their local communities as being Jihadist "hot-heads" and who had of late become more vocal; so people began to disassociate themselves from the group and stated words similar to "The police will be calling on them soon, if they keep on talking like this".