What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

An aspiring, if mentally ill British man trying to copy Andreas Breivik:

The family of a ginger terrorist who plotted to attack the Royal Family and put red-haired Prince Harry on the throne has been praised for alerting the police....Police had been alerted to his extremism by his half brother and mother found suspicious items, including chemicals, in his bedroom....
He was caught after his half-brother Kevin and came across receipts for chemicals in his bedroom.
He and mother Patricia then searched Colborne’s "extremely cluttered" bedroom and uncovered an assortment of chemicals, the books and other equipment and called the police.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ng-police.html

[davidbfpo]

The setting for the two quotes on this theme is:

Commissioners and chief constables are kicking off up and down the country, from London’s Met to Liverpool, with unprecedented protest at the 25% of cuts they have suffered and worse to come in next week’s spending review. As France’s president, François Hollande, announces he is boosting its police force by 5,000, Britain is scaling back. Nationally, 17,000 police officers have gone, with another 22,000 to go this time: neighbourhood police no longer pound the streets in many areas.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ts-theresa-may

From the same article is an example from Bedfordshire, a small county north of London, although not a terrorist plot, maybe the prelude:

What worries them most is no longer patrolling neighbourhoods as they did, listening and earning local trust. In the past, a neighbourhood tip-off from a local Muslim led them to a machete-wielding convert from Jehovah’s Witnesses to Islamicism – building up these kind of contacts takes time they’re unlikely to have in the future.

Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, has carefully added the standard "form of words" post-Paris as doubts are being heard amongst Conservative MPs:

When people trust the polcie...they tell us stuff. They might tell us who is burgling...they might tell us when someone is becoming a terrorist, when someone is becoming more radical in their behaviour. We've got to have those links.

Link:http://www.standard.co.uk/news/polit...-a3116811.html

From the Soufan Group's briefing:

Given the virtual avalanche of threats, this is likely true; even more disruptions may remain undisclosed in order to protect sources and means. However, as international terrorism strikes out through local cells, the need for human sources is as vital as ever. Only human sources can assign proper context and priority to targeted extremists,

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-of-hindsight/

[davidbfpo]

A short article 'As an FBI agent, I know communities hold the key to fighting terrorism' and the thread title is his last phrase:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...muslim-jihadi?

A key paragraph:

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[Bill Moore]

David,

I agree wholeheartedly with the comment below, what is shocking is that this appears to be recent discovery. Of course fear and the associated bias that comes with it can suppress commonsense out of existence. As I follow the U.S. news and BBC reporting on the Paris attacks in an attempt to discern the mood in the street, most reporting points to the people refusing to embrace hatred and condemn all Muslims for the acts of a few (but not as few as some would have us believe). Yet, I also think this is a form of media bias, and remain suspect there is a growing extreme right wing movement growing that will further exasperate the troubles. Strong leadership at all levels will be essential to quell the extreme rhetoric. While quieting the reactionary voices, strong leadership must demonstrate they're taking strong action and not ignoring the problem. It seems France is doing well on both accounts.

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:

Terror cells composed of family members present tremendous challenges for intelligence and security agencies to infiltrate with human sources. Such tight-knit groups are loathe to bring in new people, since the trust is so tight among the existing members. The sense of loyalty stemming from familial or matrimonial bonds makes it less likely that one of the members would inform on the others; the betrayal of the group is made much worse by obligations to the family.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

[Bill Moore]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

[davidbfpo]

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

Bill,

It is the initial "finger of suspicion" or clue, indeed discovery that 'x' and 'y family' are possible suspects. The proverbial "needle in a haystack". Who do you surveill, given that "chatter", SIGINT and other sources fail to help.