What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

A short article 'As an FBI agent, I know communities hold the key to fighting terrorism' and the thread title is his last phrase:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...muslim-jihadi?

A key paragraph:

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[Bill Moore]

David,

I agree wholeheartedly with the comment below, what is shocking is that this appears to be recent discovery. Of course fear and the associated bias that comes with it can suppress commonsense out of existence. As I follow the U.S. news and BBC reporting on the Paris attacks in an attempt to discern the mood in the street, most reporting points to the people refusing to embrace hatred and condemn all Muslims for the acts of a few (but not as few as some would have us believe). Yet, I also think this is a form of media bias, and remain suspect there is a growing extreme right wing movement growing that will further exasperate the troubles. Strong leadership at all levels will be essential to quell the extreme rhetoric. While quieting the reactionary voices, strong leadership must demonstrate they're taking strong action and not ignoring the problem. It seems France is doing well on both accounts.

We believed trust is developed over time and if they viewed us as trying to keep them and their environment safe, then slowly they would cooperate. We are able to get cooperators and informants based on our soft approach. The people we did befriend and worked with on a consistent basis realised that we were concerned for the quality of their life and how we could make their conditions better, as opposed to using them for information only. The more of these intimate interactions occur, the more comfortable the community is going to feel.

[davidbfpo]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:

Terror cells composed of family members present tremendous challenges for intelligence and security agencies to infiltrate with human sources. Such tight-knit groups are loathe to bring in new people, since the trust is so tight among the existing members. The sense of loyalty stemming from familial or matrimonial bonds makes it less likely that one of the members would inform on the others; the betrayal of the group is made much worse by obligations to the family.

Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

[Bill Moore]

The Soufan Group's latest briefing ends with a passage that explains why the public will find it difficult to get information, let alone having the motivation to communicate this:
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...ies-of-terror/

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

[davidbfpo]

Read and understand, but it also seems this would be an opportunity for investigators to find leads to other members of the group. Even if they didn't support, it seems direct and indirect surveillance of family members (the law permitting) would help uncover cells and their plots. What am I missing?

Bill,

It is the initial "finger of suspicion" or clue, indeed discovery that 'x' and 'y family' are possible suspects. The proverbial "needle in a haystack". Who do you surveill, given that "chatter", SIGINT and other sources fail to help.

[davidbfpo]

After each UK and I expect in the USA too questions are asked of law enforcement (and intelligence agencies) whether they knew of the attacker's intentions beforehand.

It now appears that the suspect in the recent knife attack @ Leytonstone Tube Station, in East London, may have been signalled on mental health grounds three weeks before to the police beforehand by his own family and the Met say without mention of him being radicalised:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-in-court.html

A recent Soufan Group newsletter asks how can a CT network adjust fully to a silent two person attack i.e. San Bernardino:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...-threat-radar/

Perhaps we will learn one day how the mental health agencies responded to the likely referral; I note the Met gave advice to the family to make contact with them, but it not clear if such a referral was made.

[Majormarginal]

There is a weak and poorly funded mental health system in the States. People with good support systems and good health insurance cannot get proper care. If one is not affluent and/or cooperative care is dismal. When institutional programs for the mentally ill were closed the idea was to transition to community based care. This transition was never seriously funded, funding has been cut, any community care that worked withered and died. Community care can be as basic as having someone to remind and/or encourage people to obtain and take their meds. Chicago closed half of its public mental health clinics in 2012. Early in my career one of my duties was transporting mentally ill people to hospitals or state mental health facilities. I had many regular customers. Several times I took the same individual for care twice in one shift. The mentally ill were "freed" from institutional settings and they were abandoned. There is no way for the mental health system to aid in prevention of attacks.

As for lone or pairs of shooters there is nothing that can prevent them from acting if they keep quiet about their plan. Anders Breivik wrote about this in his manifesto.