What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

A slightly different report, maybe not a terrorist plot, but support activity whereby the accused encouraged support for ISIS. The headline:

Muslim doctor and sister help convict Isil supporters after confronting them

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ting-them.html

The doctor and sister are British nationals, of Iraqi origin and are Shia Muslim sisters - that IMHO provides enough motivation.

[davidbfpo]

A short article by Peter Bergen, to accompany a HBO documentary, 'Homegrown: the CT dilemma' broadcast last Monday, so behind a paywall:

A very telling indicator of future violence by a terrorist, FBI behavioral analysts have found, is what they term "leakage."..Leakage is, in short, when a violent perpetrator signals to people in his circle that he is planning an act of violence...In an ongoing study of some 80 terrorism cases in the States since 2009, which has not been previously reported, the FBI found that "leakage" happened more than 80% of the time...Strangers were the most likely to come forward.. rather than the 95% of the peers, family members and authority figures who generally had the most useful information about a militant.
(He concludes) The lesson of the FBI study of terrorism cases is that the most useful information comes from peers and family members. That's why community outreach to Muslim communities to enlist their help in detecting those who may be becoming militant is the most fruitful approach to dealing with the scourge of terrorism.

Link:http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/03/op...eakage-bergen/

He does not cite the actual FBI report and a look on Google failed.

[davidbfpo]

From Walsall, a small city in the West Midlands and edited slightly:

...police only discovered the group after Rev Petty contacted the police after her son Jacob disappeared in the summer of 2014 and emailed his parents to say he was off to start a “new life” in Syria.

A senior West Midlands Police officer said:

The case here emerged from worried parents about their son who they reported missing. That was Jacob Petty. It turns out he had gone to Syria and joined Isis and from the inquiries we followed, it became a wider investigation and we were able to then open up these evidential routes into all of these people.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...upporters.html

Background on the network today, from two sources:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-fanatics.html and the BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35653366

[davidbfpo]

It is rare to see such figures in public, even if they refer to allegations of state benefits fraud in the UK:

More than 85% of fraud allegations made by the public over the last five years were false, according to figures obtained by the Observer. A freedom of information request to the Department for Work and Pensions discloses that between 2010 and 2015 the government closed 1,041,219 alleged cases of benefit fraud put forward by the public. Insufficient or no evidence of fraud was discovered in 887,468 of these.

Link:http://www.theguardian.com/society/2...ud-allegations

[davidbfpo]

Within a RUSI paper on Lone Wolves

Lone-actor terrorists are often less secretive than might be expected; their behaviour and activity can provide warnings of their extreme views or even intention to act. These indicators are often most evident to those around the perpetrator. Whether in the physical or virtual world, friends, family and work colleagues are more likely to be exposed to crucial indicators than the authorities. Recent research conducted by Michael J Williams, John G Horgan and William P Evans offers further support for this finding: examining countering violent extremism (CVE) programmes more broadly, they found that ‘those best positioned to notice early signs of individuals considering acts of violent extremism likely would be those individuals’ friends’.14 & 15 An important tool in combating the lone-actor terrorist threat is therefore ensuring the public is able to recognise extremist behaviour that might turn to violence, have avenues to report it, and crucially, are willing to do so.

The footnotes 14 & 15 refers to:

Michael J Williams, John G Horgan and William P Evans, ‘The Critical Role of Friends in Networks for Countering Violent Extremism: Toward a Theory of Vicarious Help-Seeking’, Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression (Vol. 8, No. 1, October 2016), pp. 45–6.... the model as including ‘five cognitive stages between an emergency and the decision to intervene and offer assistance. Those stages are the following: (a) notice the event, (b) interpret the event as an emergency, (c) assume responsibility for providing help, (d) know appropriate forms of assistance, and (e) implement a decision to help.’ See also, John Darley and Bibb Latané, ‘Bystander Intervention in Emergencies: Diffusion of Responsibility’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Vol. 8, No. 4, April 1968), pp. 377–8

Link:https://rusi.org/sites/default/files...cy_paper_4.pdf

The article is currently available, for free:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...EwMTE0N0BAQDA=

[davidbfpo]

An indicator of what can happen within a family:

Javeed went missing in early 2014 and is believed to have been killed alongside another British jihadist. His older brother, Jamshed Javeed, a science teacher at the Sharples High School in Bolton, planned to join his brother in Syria.His family begged him not to go but when he refused they secretly recorded him talking about his plans for jihad. The recording was passed onto police and the older Javeed was jailed for six years.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-to-jihad.html

[davidbfpo]

A lengthy WaPo report, using mainly French sources, reveals how one woman decided to help the police end an active terrorist after the Paris attacks:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/one-woman-helped-the-mastermind-of-the-paris-attacks-the-other-turned-him-in/2016/04/10/66bce472-fc47-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html?

His plans were derailed largely because of his decision to involve two women whose impulses when faced with the choice of trying to help him or stop him were immediately at odds.

The relationship between the two women in many ways reflects broader tensions in Muslim communities across Europe over interpretations of their religion, degrees of loyalty to their countries and the insidious appeal of the Islamic State.

The most important factor, her motivation, with my emphasis:

It’s important the world knows that I am Muslim myself...It’s important to me that people know what Abaaoud and the others did is not what Islam is teaching.