What & Who discovers terrorist plots?

[davidbfpo]

Within a RUSI paper on Lone Wolves

Lone-actor terrorists are often less secretive than might be expected; their behaviour and activity can provide warnings of their extreme views or even intention to act. These indicators are often most evident to those around the perpetrator. Whether in the physical or virtual world, friends, family and work colleagues are more likely to be exposed to crucial indicators than the authorities. Recent research conducted by Michael J Williams, John G Horgan and William P Evans offers further support for this finding: examining countering violent extremism (CVE) programmes more broadly, they found that ‘those best positioned to notice early signs of individuals considering acts of violent extremism likely would be those individuals’ friends’.14 & 15 An important tool in combating the lone-actor terrorist threat is therefore ensuring the public is able to recognise extremist behaviour that might turn to violence, have avenues to report it, and crucially, are willing to do so.

The footnotes 14 & 15 refers to:

Michael J Williams, John G Horgan and William P Evans, ‘The Critical Role of Friends in Networks for Countering Violent Extremism: Toward a Theory of Vicarious Help-Seeking’, Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression (Vol. 8, No. 1, October 2016), pp. 45–6.... the model as including ‘five cognitive stages between an emergency and the decision to intervene and offer assistance. Those stages are the following: (a) notice the event, (b) interpret the event as an emergency, (c) assume responsibility for providing help, (d) know appropriate forms of assistance, and (e) implement a decision to help.’ See also, John Darley and Bibb Latané, ‘Bystander Intervention in Emergencies: Diffusion of Responsibility’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (Vol. 8, No. 4, April 1968), pp. 377–8

Link:https://rusi.org/sites/default/files...cy_paper_4.pdf

The article is currently available, for free:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...EwMTE0N0BAQDA=

[davidbfpo]

An indicator of what can happen within a family:

Javeed went missing in early 2014 and is believed to have been killed alongside another British jihadist. His older brother, Jamshed Javeed, a science teacher at the Sharples High School in Bolton, planned to join his brother in Syria.His family begged him not to go but when he refused they secretly recorded him talking about his plans for jihad. The recording was passed onto police and the older Javeed was jailed for six years.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-to-jihad.html

[davidbfpo]

A lengthy WaPo report, using mainly French sources, reveals how one woman decided to help the police end an active terrorist after the Paris attacks:https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/one-woman-helped-the-mastermind-of-the-paris-attacks-the-other-turned-him-in/2016/04/10/66bce472-fc47-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html?

His plans were derailed largely because of his decision to involve two women whose impulses when faced with the choice of trying to help him or stop him were immediately at odds.

The relationship between the two women in many ways reflects broader tensions in Muslim communities across Europe over interpretations of their religion, degrees of loyalty to their countries and the insidious appeal of the Islamic State.

The most important factor, her motivation, with my emphasis:

It’s important the world knows that I am Muslim myself...It’s important to me that people know what Abaaoud and the others did is not what Islam is teaching.

[davidbfpo]

A short, post-Orlando article and citing Professor John Horgan:

People don’t act because they convince themselves that what they see is not serious enough to report — or they’re just afraid of speaking to the police.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...er-effect.html

It only covers "lone wolves".

[davidbfpo]

A rare, first-hand account by someone who called the police with their concerns. In this case a WaPo article:https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/06/20/i-reported-omar-mateen-to-the-fbi-trump-is-wrong-that-muslims-dont-do-our-part/?

[davidbfpo]

A NYT article on whether the warning by Ahmad Khan Rahami’s father to the FBI that his son should be of interest:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/ny...-bombing.html?

This is not a "black -v- white" matter:

While Mr. Rahami has spoken briefly about his contact with the F.B.I., the interviews this week provided his most detailed public account so far. His description of that contact differs starkly from the one given by law enforcement officials, who on Thursday challenged the father’s account, saying he did not provide the F.B.I. with many of the details about his son that he now says he did.

Worth citing NYPD's response in full, given at a Congressional hearing this week:

John Miller, deputy commissioner of intelligence and counterterrorism for the New York Police Department, outlined the challenges facing agents as they investigate such cases — especially given the number of people they look into and the threshold that must be met to take action. 'If you have that many contacts with that many people over that period of time, it’s increasingly likely that the next time something happens, it’s going to involve somebody that you knew, heard about, investigated, bumped or otherwise checked out. Now, that’s a good thing in that, when you’re assessing who to look at first and they come up in those records, it gives you a basis to go forward. It’s also a liability in that people have somewhat of a misconception about our ability to put someone under surveillance, leave them there indefinitely.'

[davidbfpo]

This article is added as it has many links to research in the USA on the role of Muslims in CT; obviously the context is President Trump's Executive Order on restricting seven nation's citizens entering the USA.

I don't recall this:

According to the New America Foundation’s research, NSA’s phone records surveillance program “had no discernible impact on preventing acts of terrorism."

Link:https://shadowproof.com/2017/01/27/a...r-attacks-nsa/