The US response to China (catch all)

[SWJ Blog]

U.S. Marine lieutenant has a message for China

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[SWJ Blog]

U.S. Geopolitics: Afghanistan and the Containment of China

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What Happens When a Navy Officer Gets Real on China?

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China Boast: U.S. Marines Would be Like ‘Marching Band’ in All Out Fight

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[AdamG]

The aircraft carrier George Washington has not been attacked, and World War III has not begun, despite what tweets from United Press International say, the Navy has confirmed.

The carrier is in port, not in the South China Sea, the Navy told Military Times on Friday.

UPI issued a statement on Friday saying its Twitter account and website had been hacked on Friday afternoon.

http://www.navytimes.com/story/milit...-upi/21868543/

[Bill Moore]

http://theweek.com/articles/548388/u...may-inevitable

A U.S.-China war is unthinkable. It also may be inevitable.

First, the economic tension: "Beijing's plans for a new multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have put Washington on edge," notes Johns Hopkins China expert Ho-fung Hung. "More than 40 countries, including major United States allies in Europe, have signed up to join it despite the Obama administration's objections and warnings."

Then, the militarization and geopolitics: Obama's new Defense secretary, Ash Carter, is telegraphing a response to China's aggressive militarization of the South China Sea. "We and many other countries are deeply concerned about some of the activities China is undertaking,"

[davidbfpo]

Bill,

Is this public ONI document a factor in your thoughts?

I found a reference via a Bill Gertz article (via Twitter) which starts with:

China has deployed a new high-speed anti-ship cruise missile and is sharply expanding an armada of advanced guided-missile warships and submarines, according to a naval intelligence report made public Thursday. The Office of Naval Intelligence, in its first unclassified assessment of the Chinese navy in six years, revealed deployment of the new YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile on warships and submarines that analysts say poses a major threat to U.S. and allied vessels.
China’s current naval force of 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious ships, and missile-armed patrol craft is rapidly expanding, the report says.

Link:http://freebeacon.com/national-secur...naval-buildup/

The ONI report (45 pg PDF):http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence...nteractive.pdf

[Bill Moore]

Bill,

Is this public ONI document a factor in your thoughts?

I found a reference via a Bill Gertz article (via Twitter) which starts with:
Link:http://freebeacon.com/national-secur...naval-buildup/

The ONI report (45 pg PDF):http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence...nteractive.pdf

If I understand your question, my answer would be no. What the ONI report put in the public domain was fairly well known by national security specialists and military planners. I'm curious why the ONI report was published in an unclassified document. I suspect that one reason is to send a wake up call to the American people and Congress that we can't afford to under invest in our navy in these dangerous times. China's aggressive behavior well outside of international norms is already well known by other countries in East Asia, and many are asking if the U.S. will honor its security commitments. This is one region where traditional deterrence still matters.

China's use of its paramilitary fishing fleets, coast guard and then its Navy is one way it can achieve its goals without crossing red lines. The fact that China is expanding select atolls in the South China Sea, and then building military bases is clearly an aggressive move. China doesn't want diplomatic international intervention, they just want to threaten countries in the region one on one. The so-called cabbage strategy is appropriate.

To get a view of how some Chinese military leaders view the situation read the somewhat dated article below. It is a battle of the narrative, but China's territorial claims have no legal basis whatsoever in the South China Sea.

http://chinadailymail.com/2013/05/28...y-philippines/

China boasts of strategy to “recover” islands occupied by Philippines

“What one has stolen has to be returned. No matter how long the Philippines have illegally occupied those Chinese islands and reefs, I believe that it cannot change the fact that those islands and reefs are inherent Chinese territories. However, what shall we do to counter those rude and barbarian acts of the Philippines?”

Zhang Zhaozhong: What should we do about those islands and reefs? I think that in the main we have done some things relatively successfully in dealing with the Philippines. Since the 1990s, the Philippines has done quite a few illegal and irrational things in its attempt to turn the Huangyan Island into its territory by means of presidential order, domestic legislation, and so on.

A more recent article in Foreign Affairs that worth the read.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...sland-builders

China’s Island Builders
The People’s War At Sea

Recent satellite images show that the Spratly islands, a series of features in the South China Sea, are growing at a staggering pace. Tons of sand, rocks, coral cuttings, and concrete are transforming miniscule Chinese-occupied outcroppings into sizeable islands with harbors, large multi-story buildings, airstrips, and other government facilities. The parties behind the construction and defense of these islands remain a thinly veiled secret. As China builds up its presence in the South China Sea, it is also greatly increasing its ability to monitor, bully, and even project force against its neighbors. In Machiavelli’s words, Beijing has decided that it is more important to be feared than loved—and that making progress before a new U.S. president pushes back is crucial to its regional aspirations.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...sland-builders

A couple of interesting points made in the Foreign Affairs article.

- China believes President Obama is weak, so they have considerable freedom of movement in the South China Sea.

- China's fishing fleet is already a paramilitary asset (you can see attached video in the article on how they harass), but now there is discussion on arming the fishermen.

“putting on camouflage they qualify as soldiers, taking off the camouflage they become law abiding fishermen.” Maritime militia units are charged with making both peacetime and wartime contributions to Maritime Rights Protection under the rubric of People’s War at Sea.

Also a Chinese company doing construction work in the South China Sea (building artificial islands and then building military bases on top of them) has received numerous awards for their support to national security. It should be apparent to most level headed people that China's economic competition is tied hand-in-hand with its military competition, it is all part of one coherent strategy.

Another form of economic competition (if you will), is backing up paramilitary military fishing ships with their Coast Guard equivalent (white hulls) to make it look like a law enforcement issue, that way staying in the gray zone below traditional war, but it is warfare by most people's definition of using force to impose their will upon others.

On March 26, 2013, China’s most advanced fishery patrol ship, Yuzheng 310, confronted an Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries vessel in the Exclusive Economic Zone off Natuna Island (claimed by Indonesia), apparently jamming its communications with headquarters in order to coerce the Indonesian vessel to release Chinese fishermen detained for illegal fishing. Chinese MLE vessels have bullied Vietnamese and Philippine ships as well, attacking fishing ships in international waters.

Overall the trend lines for long term peace in East Asia are not positive. We are far from the point where all is lost, but more deterrence (both capacity and the demonstrated will to use it) is required to start with, because unfortunately pure diplomacy doesn't seem to work the PRC government. It is greatly disappointing, almost unbelievable, that China would risk falling off the path to greatness with their immature foreign policies. Of course this is why so many in the West are in a state of denial, because their actions seem illogical.

[AdamG]

How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015

James Kraska
Stockton Center for the Study of International Law; University of Virginia School of Law, Center for Oceans Law & Policy; University of Virginia School of Law, Center for National Security Law; Duke University Marine Laboratory; University of California Berkeley School of Law, Law of the Sea Institute; Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

2010

Orbis (Foreign Policy Research Institute), pp. 35-46, Winter 2001

Abstract:
Years of strategic missteps in oceans policy, naval strategy and a force structure in decline set the stage for U.S. defeat at sea in 2015. After decades of double-digit budget increases, the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) was operating some of the most impressive systems in the world, including a medium-range ballistic missile that could hit a moving aircraft carrier and a super-quiet diesel electric submarine that was stealthier than U.S. nuclear submarines. Coupling this new asymmetric naval force to visionary maritime strategy and oceans policy, China ensured that all elements of national power promoted its goal of dominating the East China Sea. The United States, in contrast, had a declining naval force structured around 10 aircraft carriers spread thinly throughout the globe. With a maritime strategy focused on lower order partnerships,and a national oceans policy that devalued strategic interests in freedom of navigation, the stage was set for defeat at sea. This article recounts how China destroyed the USS George Washington in the East China Sea in 2015. The political fallout from the disaster ended 75 years of U.S. dominance in the Pacific Ocean and cemented China’s position as the Asian hegemon.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1648631

[AdamG]

On October 13, 2015, China started the 24 hour test flight of its largest airship yet in Xilinhot, Inner Mongolia. The Yuanmeng has a volume of 18,000 cubic meters, a length of 75 meters and a height of 22 meters. It will fly to 20,000 meters to test its control systems and near-space flight performance. With solar panels installed on its top, the Yuanmeng will be one of the largest solar-powered airships in existence. Using solar power to drive its rotors will save additional weight in order to increase payload, and gives it a total flight endurance of six months. The Yuanmeng's 5- to 7-ton payload of data relays, datalinks, cameras and other sensors would also be powered by the sun.

http://www.popsci.com/china-tests-its-largest-airship


See also
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...hlight=airship

[SWJ Blog]

China Reorganizing Military to Close Gap with U.S.

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The Exotic New Weapons the Pentagon Wants to Deter Russia and China

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[AdamG]

I wonder how they stole the technology.

The Sharp Sword is the first non-NATO stealthy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV). Built by Aviation Industry Corporation of China, with much of the work done by the Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, the Sharp Sword first flew in November 2013. Looking a bit like a mini-B-2 flying wing bomber, the UCAV has two internal bomb bays and a likely payload of about 4,400 pounds. Its engine is a non-afterburning WS-13 turbofan engine, with serpentine inlet to hide the engine from enemy radars (the first Sharp Sword does not use a stealthy nozzle due to its technology demonstrator status). It has a length of about 33 feet, and a wingspan of about 46 feet.

http://www.popsci.com/china-sharp-sw...src=SOC&dom=fb

[Azor]

I wonder how they stole the technology.

http://www.popsci.com/china-sharp-sw...src=SOC&dom=fb

Is it my sick and twisted imagination, or does Popular Science have a love for all weapons Chinese?

They certainly have beaten the Russians in the areas of HGVs, railguns and UAVs.

Wasn't BAE's Taranis the first stealth UCAV? It would be good to know that the British can still do it, as they did with the Meteor and the V-bombers...

Keep in mind the following:

1. The Chinese are adept at creating mock-ups of Western aircraft that aren't necessarily the real thing on the inside
2. The West has been well aware of Chinese espionage efforts for decades now
3. Rather than attempting to keep advanced technology completely secret, it is preferable to allow tainted IP to filter to the adversary, where it can cause mayhem (e.g. the Soviet oil pipeline)
4. The Taranis has an IOC date of ~2029, but this is likely a lie

[AdamG]

Ever since Eraser, everyone wants a railgun. Turns out China is no exception. Some photos posted by Dafeng Cao, a Twitter user who keeps close tabs on Chinese military developments, show a ship-mounted gun that could very well be the country's very own homegrown electromagnetically propelled mass driver.
Railguns, or coil guns, accelerate solid metal projectiles using ultra-strong electromagnets, firing them well above speeds achieved by conventional ballistic methods. We're talking Mach 6 here. The U.S. has been working on them for years, and has produced some very cool test videos, but I haven't heard about any of them being mounted on ships.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sure-...191815169.html

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/DR...44dca031c15096

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVCojXnUMAIAbmh.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVComwYUQAAR3u_.jpg

[AdamG]

DANANG, Vietnam (Reuters) - A U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in Vietnam on Monday for the first time since the end of the Vietnam War, dramatically underscoring the growing strategic ties between the former foes at a time when China’s regional influence is rising. The imposing grey silhouette of the USS Carl Vinson could be seen from the cliff tops just outside the central Vietnamese city of Danang, where the 103,000-tonne carrier and two other U.S. ships begin a five-day visit.

https://in.reuters.com/article/usa-v...-idINKBN1GH0SF

[AdamG]

Is it my sick and twisted imagination, or does Popular Science have a love for all weapons Chinese?

Popular Science isn't as hard-core as it was in our youth.

[AdamG]

An economist who believes that Chinese goods are literally poisoning Americans, advocates ending Washington's "One China" policy and says trade deals have weakened the United States economically with the connivance of U.S. business has emerged as the big winner from renewed turmoil in the White House.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1GJ2TU