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  1. #1
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default The Era of Living Dangerously

    The world is on edge: On the edge of another financial crisis, another global recession, another bout of extreme weather, another humanitarian disaster, another food crisis, and another round of violence and civil unrest. The world's problems, it seems, are not being solved; they are being recycled with rising -- and disturbing -- rapidity.

    If this were a movie, we might borrow a title from yesteryear and call it "The Year of Living Dangerously." But, unfortunately, this is not a movie; and the challenges that we face will not be resolved anytime soon. Our troubles are not cyclical, they are structural. We live in a world that is fundamentally out of balance, and rectifying those imbalances will take years, if not decades, to correct. Welcome to "The Era of Living Dangerously."
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert..._b_923423.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
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  2. #2
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Heh. More correctly, The Era of no Historical Perspective

    The lack of knowledge of and appreciation for history tends to make the current generation, the one that preceded it and most Baby Boomers snivel about reality. The Puffington Host excels at that...

    The World has always been out of balance. Note in the quote provided the extensive use of the word 'another'...

    The problem is that many of the rather pampered today want stability and security that have never been and are unlikely to be available regardless of things flaky politicians and 'The Sky IS FALLING' news media and punditidiocy say...

    Same stuff, different day.

  3. #3
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Granted, the world has always been chaotic but in ways it can be predictable as the seasons. I'd recommend reading THE FOURTH TURNING.

    Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history as a series of recurring 80- to 100-year cycles. Each cycle has four "turnings"-a High, an Awakening, anUnraveling, and a Crisis. The authors locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next Crisis (or Fourth Turning). And they recommend ways Americans can prepare for what's ahead, as a nation and as individuals.
    http://www.fourthturning.com/html/fourth_turning.html

    They put the Third Turning as "the Culture Wars (1984 to 2005?)". That's pretty accurate forecasting, from 1997. This is a good page

    http://www.fourthturning.com/html/turnings_3.html

    and the wiki -

    In 1997, the authors published The Fourth Turning, which expanded on the ideas presented in Generations. Examining 500 years of Anglo-American history, The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct historical pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting approximately the length of a long human life (about 80–90 years), and each composed of four different types of mood eras, or "turnings". Offering a detailed analysis of the period from the Great Depression through today, the authors describe the collective persona of each living generation. These include the upbeat, team-playing G.I.s, the indecisive Silent, the values-obsessed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the new coming-of-age generation of upbeat, team-playing, Millennials. By situating each living generation in the context of a historical generational cycle and archetype, the authors claim to clarify the personality and role of each—and the inevitability of a coming crisis in America
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss_and_Howe

    see also
    http://www.fourthturning.com/html/winter_is_coming.html

    From Chapter 10 (A Fourth Turning Prophecy), page 273 - copied verbatim.

    An impasse over the Federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The President declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The President threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  4. #4
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default I can do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    Granted, the world has always been chaotic but in ways it can be predictable as the seasons. I'd recommend reading THE FOURTH TURNING.
    I'll do that -- though I don't expect much edification but I can always use a chuckle or two. This blurb from your first link:

    ""As Future Shock did in the 1970s and Megatrends did in the 1980s, this groundbreaking book will have a profound effect on every reader's perception of America's past, present, and future.""

    is probably indicative of the total value of the Book -- both the two cited were IMO flops and of small merit. Few books live up to their hype and as Neils Bohr said, "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." People are too erratic and individually different to be pigeonholed as most predictive efforts have to try to do.

    However, no argument on broad predictability. Everything goes in cycles including American domestic politics which are boringly predictable and cyclical.
    They put the Third Turning as "the Culture Wars (1984 to 2005?)". That's pretty accurate forecasting, from 1997...
    Mid stream, time wise. Not so good, just belated and somewhat reasonable guesses -- which are what most 'forecasts' are. Actually, I'd say they missed it by 20 years. That turning was mid 60s to mid 80s and the US (as well as most of the rest of the world) has yet to understand how much the world changed in that time frame. The world's power structures, mostly, did not adapt (Singapore one bright exception, there are a couple of others) -- and is still fighting and trying to avoid adapting to it. Witness everything that's driving the nervous types up a wall today and it all started between 1965-1985, we're just cleaning up the aftermath.

    Note also US domestic programs oriented to the 1930s by all those left leaners who have not yet realized that their dreams of dependency and an all powerful government are not going to happen. Today, most western nation are just beginning to adjust to the changes that were glaringly obvious in the 1980s but which power structures diligently ignored as threatening to their 'vision.' Generational change is part of that adaptation but public discontent with the political classes worldwide is a more important driver of belated change.

    The fascinating thing is that Karl Marx, bourgeois soul that he was, got confused and though disagreement with the human condition was about class -- it was not and is not, it's about fairness of opportunity -- not outcome, opportunity. Very few begrudge he or she who has great wealth as long as they believe they could achieve that or close to it under their system of government. The socialist or populist idea opposes that fairness, by denying chance for great success in order to attempt 'equal' outcomes -- most people do not agree with that model.The Social Democratic governments of Europe got cranked up in the 30s, went for broke (literally) after WW II and, finally really broke, can snicker at the idiotic USA which is still trying to implement that foolishness as opposed to wisely scaling it back as Europe is doing. That model does not work for the long haul because it is intrinsically unfair and people will passively at first, actively if necessary, opt for change. There may be a "Fourth Turning," may not -- much depends on what a few people do or do not do -- and authors who have attempted to predict what people will do fail every bit as badly as the Generals who busily prepare for the last war.

    As to the full effects of "the new coming-of-age generation of upbeat, team-playing, Millennials," we'll see. Too early to tell, as is true of the Gen Xers and even the Baby Boomers. Generational change is real -- but only rarely is it truly significant.

    Your final quote from the book:
    "An impasse over the Federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The President declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The President threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics."
    May or may not occur, elements of it have (a number of times during the last 220 years and including this year... ) and certainly will again. Default has loomed, will again and is vastly overblown as a potential problem.

    I think Wall Street and Panics is almost certainly an oxymoron...

  5. #5
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Default

    How dangerous can the world be if life expectancy is still rising in many if not most countries and populations are growing in most places, too?

    This is rather the age of confused people who lost their sense or reality.
    This applies especially to those who command attention in talks in a security policy context.


    For a while I ran a series on my blog, comparing errorist effects with the effects of bus drivers.
    The latter turned out to be way more dangerous in every metric.

    This was a statistic I distilled:

    Year Kills by bus drivers
    2001 42
    2002 34
    2003 30
    2004 31
    2005 28
    2006 20
    2007 31
    Errorists don't even come close.

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    Ken:

    Oh for the post-Vietnam, post Watergate peace and love generation.

    Wait. Aren't they the same greedy bastards, in later life, running Wall Street and pushing George Bush's GWOT and deficit explosions.

    So much for over-generalizations. (and projections).

    I keep looking for this mythical historical time of perfect synchronization, and usually find that, on deeper analysis, there was great strife, challenge and change in that time, too.

    My computer programmer mom always said: Life IS problems, and the fun is solving them.

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default New SWC adjective?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    For a while I ran a series on my blog, comparing errorist effects with the effects of bus drivers. The latter turned out to be way more dangerous in every metric. Errorists don't even come close.
    Errorists is a very clever, nay subtle way of imparting a new message regarding their actions. Well done Fuchs!
    davidbfpo

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